Compressional angles of isallo stress theory for a circular-cylindrical,spherical and elliptic-cylindrical elastic inhomogeneity in an elastic medium

Summary The compressional angle of isallo stress theory for the case of a cylindrical (circular and elliptic) and spherical subsurface inhomogeneity, assuming that the conjugate fracture surfaces are inclined at a Mohr angle of 30° toward the largest compression, has been calculated. The solution for a spherical and cylindrical inclusion in an infinite medium subject to a uniform stress field (at infinity) were taken as the basis for the stress analysis. The stress angle was then calculated for the mentioned types of inclusions.     

Directional permeability of porous media to homogeneous fluids

Summary Investigations have shown that in groundwater- and oil-bearing strata there are preferential directions of flow that are often maintained over wide areas.Johnson & Hughes (1948, see Ref.) analysed a series of oil well cores by cutting them into small horizontal plugs and they obtained directional permeabilities which they plotted in the form of polar graphs. They were not able to give a physical explanation of this phenomenon. On the other hand, there exists a theory of permeability in which the latter is represented as a symmetric tensor. This theory has been developed byFerrandon (1948, see Ref.), but no experimental substantiation of it seems ever to have been attempted.In the present paper, the author undertakes to compare the two sets of findings. FromFerrandon's theory, the directional permeabilities (denoted byk) corresponding to the experiments ofJohnson & Hughes are calculated and it is shown thatk ^–1/2 if plotted as polar graph, should form an ellipse. The data ofJohnson & Hughes are then are drawn. In this manner, a substantiation of the tensor theory ofFerrandon is obtained.

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Zusammenfassung Untersuchungen der Permeabilität von Grundwasser und Erdöl führenden Gesteinsschichten haben gezeigt, dass dieselbe in vielen Fällen richtungsabhängig ist. Hierbei bleibt die Richtung extremaler Permeabilität oft über weite Gebiete konstant.Johnson & Hughes untersuchten eine Reihe von Bohrkernen von Oelquellen auf Richtungsabhängigkeit der Permeabilität. Hierzu schnitten sie aus denselben kleine, waagrechte Stücke, bestimmten deren Permeabilität und stellten das Ergebnis ihrer Messungen in der Form von Permeabilitätspolardiagrammen dar. Sie waren nicht im Stande, eine theoretische Erklärung der erhaltenen Kurven zu geben. Auf der anderen Seite existiert eine Theorie der Permeabilität, wobei die letztere als symmetrischer Tensor behandelt wird. Diese Theorie wurde vonFerrandon vorgeschlagen; es scheint aber, dass keine experimentelle Bestätigung davon je versucht worden ist.In der vorliegenden Arbeit vergleicht der Verfasser die zwei Typen von Untersuchungen. Nach derFerrandon'schen Theorie wird die «gerichtete» Permeabilität (mitk bezeichnet), die den Experimenten vonJohnson & Hughes entspricht, berechnet. Es wird gezeigt, dassk ^–1/2, als Polardiagramm dargestellt, die Gestalt einer Ellipse haben sollte. Die Resultate vonJohnson & Hughes werden dann in die Form vonk ^–1/2 umgerechnet und als entsprechende Polardiagramme dargestellt. In dieser Weise wird eine experimentelle Bestätigung der Tensortheorie vonFerrandon erhalten.

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Published by Permission of Imperial Oil Limited, Calgary, Alberta (Canada).     

X-Ray Interferometry

For the astronomer, X-ray interferometry is the theory and practice of building dilute aperture telescopes for studying celestial X-ray sources. The short wavelengths and high surface brightness of X-ray sources will make the eventual scientific payoff very high, with direct imaging of the event horizons of black holes as the centerpiece. In this article, we review the history of X-ray interferometry and discuss the recent technical developments toward astronomical applications. We present several mission concepts and show they are achievable with todays technology.     

Geostatistical mapping of geomorphic variables in the presence of trend

Mapping geomorphic variables geostatistically, specifically by kriging, runs into difficulties when there is trend. The reason is that the variogram required for the kriging must be of residuals from any trend, which in turn cannot be estimated optimally by the usual method of trend surface analysis because the residuals are correlated. The difficulties can be overcome by the use of residual maximum likelihood (REML) to estimate both the trend and the variogram of the residuals simultaneously. We summarize the theory of REML as it applies to kriging in the presence of trend. We present the equations to show how estimates of the trend are combined with kriging of residuals to give empirical best linear unbiased predictions (E‐BLUPs). We then apply the method to estimate the height of the sub‐Upper‐Chalk surface beneath the Chiltern Hills of southeast England from 238 borehole data. The variogram of the REML residuals is substantially different from that computed by ordinary least squares (OLS) analysis. The map of the predicted surface is similar to that made from kriging with the OLS variogram. The variances, however, are substantially larger because (a) they derive from a variogram with a much larger sill and (b) they include the uncertainty of the estimate of the trend. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction

Rainfall data collected on and around the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2003 were analysed to assess the impact on primary volcanic activity, defined here as pyroclastic flows, dome collapses, and explosions. Fifteen such rainfall-triggered events were identified. If greater than 20 mm of rain fell on a particular day, the probability of a dome collapse occurring on that day increased by a factor of 6.3% to 9.2%, compared to a randomly chosen day. Similarly, the probability of observing pyroclastic flows and explosions on a day with > 20 mm of rainfall increased by factors of 2.6 and 5.4, respectively. These statistically significant links increased as the rainfall threshold was increased. Seventy percent of these rainfall-induced dome collapse episodes occurred on the same calendar day (most within a few hours) as the onset of intense rainfall, but an extra 3 occurred one or two calendar days later. The state of the volcano was important, with the rainfall–volcanic activity link being strongest during periods of unstable dome growth and weakest during periods of no dome growth or after a recent major collapse.Over 50% of the heavy rain days were associated with large-scale weather systems that can potentially be forecast up to a few days ahead. However, the remaining heavy rain days were associated with small-scale, essentially unpredictable weather systems. There was significant variability in the amount of rainfall recorded by different rain gauges, reflecting topographic variations around the volcano but also the inherent small-scale variability within an individual weather system. Hence, any monitoring/warning program is recommended to use a network, rather than just a single gauge. The seasonal cycle in rainfall was pronounced, with nearly all the heavy rain days occurring in the May–December wet season. Hence, the dome was at its most vulnerable at the beginning of the wet season after a period of uninterrupted growth. Interannual variability in rainfall was related to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, and holds out the prospect of some limited skill in volcanic hazard forecasts at even longer lead times.     

Modeling long-period noise in kinematic GPS applications

We develop and test an algorithm for modeling and removing elevation error in kinematic GPS trajectories in the context of a kinematic GPS survey of the salar de Uyuni, Bolivia. Noise in the kinematic trajectory ranges over 15 cm and is highly autocorrelated, resulting in significant contamination of the topographic signal. We solve for a noise model using crossover differences at trajectory intersections as constraints in a least-squares inversion. Validation of the model using multiple realizations of synthetic/simulated noise shows an average decrease in root-mean-square-error (RMSE) by a factor of four. Applying the model to data from the salar de Uyuni survey, we find that crossover differences drop by a factor of eight (from an RMSE of 5.6 to 0.7 cm), and previously obscured topographic features are revealed in a plan view of the corrected trajectory. We believe that this algorithm can be successfully adapted to other survey methods that employ kinematic GPS for positioning.     

Maquiladora Myths: Locational and Structural Change in Mexico's Export Manufacturing Industry

Trends in location, labor force, and procurement practices in maquiladoras are examined using recent data sources. A growing proportion of maquiladoras are selecting interior locations, south of the borderlands. Once dominated by young women, the labor force is rapidly approaching gender parity. While far below prevailing rates in the United States, maquiladora wages are comparable with equivalent manufacturing sectors in Mexico. Majority ownership of maquiladoras is split almost evenly between Mexico and the U.S., however, maquiladoras have failed to develop domestic sources of materials and parts and remain dependent on imported material inputs. As the North American Free Trade Agreement is phased in, the regulatory environment of maquiladoras will change but their role as low cost assembly specialists will persist.     

A Sociodemographic and Partisan Analysis of Voting in Three Anti-Gay Rights Referenda in Oregon

Since 1988, three separate anti-gay rights referenda have been placed on the ballot in the state of Oregon. While in 1988 Oregon voters passed the first measure (subsequently found unconstitutional), they rejected similar referenda in 1992 and 1994. This paper examines the electoral geography of these three referenda both cartographically and quantitatively. It finds patterns of support for the referenda were closely associated with voting patterns for the Republican Party in gubernatorial and presidential elections, and with sociodemographic indicators reflective of traditionalist areas.     

The ortho- to para- ratio of H2 in the starburst of NGC 253

We present measurements of several near-infrared emission lines from the nearby galaxy NGC 253. We have been able to measure four H₂ lines across the circumnuclear starburst, from which we estimate the ortho- to para- ratio of excited H₂ to be ∼2. This indicates that the bulk of the H₂ emission arises from photodissociation regions (PDRs), rather than from shocks. This is the case across the entire region of active star formation.
As the H₂ emission arises from PDRs, it is likely that the ratio of H₂ to Brγ (the bright hydrogen recombination line) is a measure of the relative geometry of O and B stars and PDRs. Towards the nucleus of NGC 253 the geometry is deduced to be tightly clustered O and B stars in a few giant H  II regions that are encompassed by PDRs. Away from the nuclear region, the geometry becomes that of PDRs bathed in a relatively diffuse ultraviolet radiation field.
The rotation curves of 1–0 S(1) and Brγ suggest that the ionized gas is tracing a kinetic system different from that of the molecular gas in NGC 253, particularly away from the nucleus.