Probabilistic discrimination between large-scale environments of intensifying and decaying African Easterly Waves

About 50?C60% of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) including nearly 85% of intense hurricanes have their origins as African Easterly Waves (AEWs). However, predicting the likelihood of AEW intensification remains a difficult task. We have developed a Bayesian diagnostic methodology to understand genesis of North Atlantic TCs spawned by AEWs through the examination of the characteristics of the AEW itself together with the large-scale environment, resulting in a probabilistic discrimination between large-scale environments associated with intensifying and decaying AEWs. The methodology is based on a new objective and automatic AEW tracking scheme used for the period 1980 to 2001 based on spatio-temporally Fourier-filtered relative vorticity and meridional winds at different levels and outgoing long wave radiation. Using the AEW and Hurricane Best Track Files (HURDAT) data sets, probability density functions of environmental variables that discriminate between AEWs that decay, become TCs or become major hurricanes are determined. Results indicate that the initial amplitude of the AEWs is a major determinant for TC genesis, and that TC genesis risk increases when the wave enters an environment characterized by pre-existing large-scale convergence and moist convection. For the prediction of genesis, the most useful variables are column integrated heating, vertical velocity and specific humidity, and a combined form of divergence and vertical velocity and SST. It is also found that the state of the large-scale environment modulates the annual cycle and interannual variability of the AEW intensification efficiency.     

Potential collapse of the upper slope and tsunami generation on the Great Barrier Reef margin, north-eastern Australia

Analysis of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and seismic profiles in the Noggin Passage region, north-eastern Australia, has identified a small area (Noggin block) in the upper-slope offshore Cairns that may potentially collapse and generate a tsunami wave. The Noggin block extends from 340 to 470 m depth covering a roughly circular (2.4 km long and 3.7 km wide) area of about 5.3 km². The well-defined margins of the block correspond to different bounding seabed features. These features include steep headscarps, small landslides and a group of aligned circular pockforms up to 500 m wide and 20 m deep. Slope stability simulations indicate that the Noggin block is stable under normal present-day gravitational conditions on the upper slope. However, block failure may result under external loads, such as those produced by earthquakes. Failure modelling shows that critical peak horizontal accelerations of 0.2–0.4 g could lead to the collapse of the Noggin block. In north-eastern Australia, these acceleration values would involve earthquakes generated at short hypocentral distances and short periods. The collapse of the potential sediment slide mass of about 0.86 km³ (162 m average thickness) may lead to the formation of a landslide-generated tsunami wave. Semi-empirical equations indicate the collapse of this mass would yield a 7–11-m high three-dimensional tsunami wave. These waves could reach an estimated run-up height at the coast of 5–7 m. Our first-order approach highlights the potential consequences for nearby coastal communities, the need for better sediment characterisation in the study area, and the systematic identification of other areas prone to slope failures along the Great Barrier Reef margin.     

The geology and geochemistry of the Lumwana Cu (± Co ± U) deposits, NW Zambia

The Lumwana Cu (± Co ± U) deposits of NW Zambia are large, tabular, disseminated ore bodies, hosted within the Mwombezhi Dome of the Lufilian Arc. The host rocks to the Lumwana deposits are two mineralogically similar but texturally distinct gneisses, a granitic to pegmatitic gneiss and a banded to augen gneiss which both comprise quartz–feldspar ± biotite ± muscovite ± haematite ± amphibole and intervening quartz–feldspar ± biotite schist. The sulphide ore horizons are typically developed within a biotite–muscovite–quartz–kyanite schist, although mineralization locally occurs within internal gneiss units. Contacts between the ore and host rocks are transitional and characterized by a loss of feldspar. Kinematic indicators, such as S-C fabrics and pressure shadows on porphyroblasts, suggest a top to the north shear sense. The sulphides are deformed by a strong shear fabric, enclosed within kyanite or concentrated into low strain zones and pressure shadows around kyanite porphyroblasts. This suggests that the copper mineralization was introduced either syn- or pre-peak metamorphism. In addition to Cu and Co, the ores are also characterized by enrichments in U, V, Ni, Ba and S and small, discrete zones of uranium mineralization, occur adjacent to the hanging wall and footwall of the copper ore bodies or in the immediate footwall to the copper mineralization. Unlike typical Copperbelt mineralization, unmineralized units show very low background copper values. Whole rock geochemical analyses of the interlayered schist and ore schist, compared to the gneiss, show depletions in Ca, Na and Sr and enrichments in Mg and K, consistent with replacement of feldspar by biotite. The mineral chemistry of muscovite, biotite and chlorite reflect changes in the bulk rock chemistry and show consistent increases in X _Mg as the schists develop. δ³⁴S for copper sulphides range from +2.3?‰ to +18.5?‰, with pyrite typically restricted to values between +3.9?‰ and +6.2?‰. These values are atypical of sulphides precipitated by bacteriogenic sulphate reduction. δ³⁴S data for Chimiwungo (Cu + Co) show a broader range and increased δ³⁴S values compared to the Malundwe (Cu) mineralization. The Lumwana deposits show many characteristics which distinguish them from classical Copperbelt mineralization and which suggests that they are formed by metasomatic alteration, mineralization and shearing of pre-Katangan basement. Although this style of mineralization is reported elsewhere in the Copperbelt, sometimes associated with the more widely reported stratiform ores of the Lower Roan, none of the previously reported occurrences have so far developed the tonnages of ore reported at Lumwana.     

How important is the impact of land-surface inundation on seawater intrusion caused by sea-level rise?

The influence of sea-level rise (SLR) on seawater intrusion (SWI) has been the subject of several publications, which consider collectively a range of functional relationships within various hydrogeological and SLR settings. Most of the recent generalized analyses of SWI under SLR neglect land-surface inundation (LSI) by seawater. A simple analytical method is applied to quantitatively assess the influence and importance of LSI on SLR–SWI problems under idealized conditions. The results demonstrate that LSI induces significantly more extensive SWI, with inland penetration up to an order of magnitude larger in the worst case, compared to the effects of pressure changes at the shoreline in unconfined coastal aquifers with realistic parameters. The study also outlines some of the remaining research challenges in related areas, concluding that LSI impacts are among other important research questions regarding the SLR–SWI problems that have not been addressed, including the effects of aquifer heterogeneities, real-world three dimensionality, and mitigation measures.     

Evaluation of bagasse ash treated lateritic soil as a potential barrier material in waste containment application

Laboratory tests were conducted on a reddish-brown lateritic soil treated with up to 12 % bagasse ash to assess its suitability in waste containment barriers applications. Soil samples were prepared using four compaction energies (i.e. reduced Proctor, standard Proctor, West African Standard or ‘intermediate’ and modified Proctor) at ?2, 0, 2 and 4 % moulding water content of the optimum moisture content (OMC). Index properties, hydraulic conductivity (k), volumetric shrinkage and unconfined compressive strength (UCS) tests were performed. Overall acceptable zones under which the material is suitable as a barrier material were obtained. Results recorded showed improved index properties; hydraulic conductivity and UCS with bagasse ash treatment up to 8 % at the OMC. Volumetric shrinkage strain increased with higher bagasse ash treatment. Based on the overall acceptable zone obtained, an 8 % optimal bagasse ash treatment of the natural lateritic soil makes it suitable for use in waste containment barrier application.     

Sustaining the “Societal and Scriptural Fence”: Cultural,Social, and Political Topographies of Same-Sex Marriage in Alabama

In June 2006, voters in Alabama overwhelmingly approved a statewide referendum that added a prohibition against same-sex marriage to the state's constitution. This research examines the Alabama vote by “placing” the politics of sexuality within the state's multifaceted web of cultural and social space. We fuse a traditional electoral geography approach with an overall postpositivist cultural and social perspective, beginning with an assessment of the politics of place by situating Alabama as a place with a long history of battles over the so-called culture wars. The cultural politics of the legislative debate and the geographic distribution of the actual vote are also examined within a socio-demographic context, drawing some comparisons from a similar vote in Georgia in 2004, another state in the American Deep South. Those opposed to same-sex marriage in Alabama made effective use of various social constructions that are deeply embedded within a “moral” geography, situating the state as a fenced-off bastion of “religious traditional values,” a common theme throughout the American South. In this vein, social boundaries and territory were demarcated as a powerful political act in Alabama, a strategy that situated the state as hetero-normatively “in place,” while deeming sexual minorities as “out of place.”     

Internal Structure and Permafrost Characteristics of the Rock Glaciers of Southern Carpathians (Romania) Assessed by Geoelectrical Soundings and Thermal Monitoring

Six rock glaciers in the Southern Carpathians have been investigated by means of geoelectrical soundings in order to detect their internal stratigraphy and the existence of frozen sediments. In the case of three relict rock glaciers, the electrical resistivity measurements indicated a typical internal structure. Low resistivity values (<10 kΩm) which are typical of unfrozen fine‐grained materials were obtained, but high resistivity values (25–240 kΩm) measured in the Pietroasa, Ie?u and Pietrele rock glaciers denote the presence of sediments cemented by interstitial ice and ice lenses. Based on the moderate resistivity values, the ice content is probably low to medium in the upper portion of these rock glaciers, that is, above 2040 m. At two sites (Pietroasa and V?iuga rock glaciers), ground surface temperature (GST) evolution was monitored using digital dataloggers. Mean annual ground surface temperature and GST regime throughout the winter were extracted from the recordings and confirmed the probability of permafrost occurrence in Pietroasa rock glacier. In the Ie?u and Pietrele rock glaciers, measurements of bottom temperatures of the winter snow cover were performed in March 2012. Considering the thick active layer, the reduced ice content and the presence of scarce vegetation on their surface it could be assumed that the permafrost exists in marginal conditions in the Southern Carpathians. The ground ice in permafrost is produced by the groundwater freezing or by snow banks buried by coarse angular boulders following large rockfalls.     

A marked correlation function analysis of halo formation times in the Millennium Simulation

We study the environmental dependence of the formation epoch of dark matter haloes in the Millennium Simulation: a ten billion particle N -body simulation of standard Lambda cold dark matter cosmology. A sensitive test of this dependence – the marked correlation function – reveals highly significant evidence that haloes of a given mass form earlier in denser regions. We define a marked cross-correlation function, which helps quantify how this effect depends upon the choice of the halo population used to define the environment. The mean halo formation redshift as a function of the local overdensity in dark matter is also well determined, and we see an especially clear dependence for galaxy-sized haloes. This contradicts one of the basic predictions of the excursion set model of structure formation, even though we see that this theory predicts other features of the distribution of halo formation epochs rather well. It also invalidates an assumption usually employed in the popular halo, or halo occupation distribution, models of galaxy clustering, namely that the distribution of halo properties is a function of halo mass but not of halo environment.