Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in advance. Much of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain band. We find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI) on monthly time scales, and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional rainfall. However, th...     

Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching

Climate Dynamics - We describe the method of history matching, a method currently used to help quantify parametric uncertainty in climate models, and argue for its use in identifying and removing...     

Application of trichloroacetic acid (TCA) to extraction of soft body for the determination of tissue Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in the prosobranch Hydrobia ulvae (Pennant)

The application of trichloroacetic acid (TCA) as a shell extractant for preparation of soft body parts with reference to tissue metal concentrations (Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn) in shellfish has been evaluated on the example of the mud snail Hydrobia ulvae, a small marine prosobranch densely present in rocky and soft-bottom habitats of the eastern Atlantic. A solution of 0.1 M TCA was tested on individuals treated according to two different protocols: (1) thawed after freezing ("non-dried") and (2) thawed and air-dried to a constant weight ("dried"). Two points were investigated in detail to improve the method: individual soft tissue dry weight and tissue metal concentration following a standard digestion method. In both instances, the results were compared with those from manually dissected snails. Conditions for total shell decalcification of 60 individuals (3-4 mm long) were 5.5 h in 20 ml of 0.1 M TCA.No differences in individual soft tissue weight were observed between the treatments, indicating good efficiency of the TCA extraction with respect to weight of soft body parts. In contrast, tissue metal concentrations varied among treatments. The TCA extraction of the dried animals had a good recovery for Cd, most likely due to the lower solubility of Cd vital cellular components (proteins and mineral concretions) from the dried tissue. Satisfactory recoveries of the tissue concentrations of Cu and Pb were obtained for the non-dried individuals. This might be related to the specific distribution of metals in the organism (namely in the digestive glands and gonads) and their different chemical reactivity with TCA after the tissue was dried. Limited susceptibility of Zn-bearing protein bindings to complexing with TCA also accounts for significantly lower concentrations of Zn in the mud snail's soft tissue that was extracted. The 0.1 M TCA solution is therefore recommended for extraction of the shells of Hydrobia ulvae for tissue determination of Cd, Cu and Pb; however the treatment protocol does affect metal recovery and thus a consistent procedure should be followed.The extracted metals from the soft tissues and shells of the mud snails (on the basis of both metal concentrations and contents) were ranked in order of increasing contribution of soft body parts to the total (shell+tissue): Pb相似文献   

Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system

Abstract

Quality is key to ensuring that the potential offered by weather radar networks is realized. To achieve optimum quality, a comprehensive radar data quality management system, designed to monitor the end-to-end radar data processing chain and evaluate product quality, is being developed at the UK Met Office. Three contrasting elements of this system are described: monitoring of key radar hardware performance indicators; generation of long-term integrations of radar products; and monitoring of radar reflectivity factor using synthesized observations from numerical weather prediction model fields. Examples of each component are presented and ways in which the different types of monitoring information have been used to both identify issues with the radar product data quality and help formulate solutions are given.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Harrison, D., Georgiou, S., Gaussiat, N., and Curtis, A., 2013. Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1327–1342. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841316     

Abnormal features of Macoma balthica (Bivalvia) in the Baltic Sea: alerting symptoms of environmental adversity?

Recent studies of the Baltic clam Macoma balthica (L.) from the southern Baltic (the Gulf of Gdansk) have revealed striking morphological, histological and cytogenetic features. Strong deformation of the shell, including elongation of the posterior end and the appearance of an easily visible flexure in this part, has been recorded. The population contribution of the deformed blunt shelled ("irregular") clams ranged from 0% to 65% and tended to increase with depth. The morphologically "irregular" clams had higher accumulated tissue concentrations of trace metals (As, Ag, Cd, Pb, Cu and Zn), indicating a different metal handling ability. Adverse conditions in deeper water regions of the Gulf (e.g. hypoxia, hydrogen sulphide, elevated bioavailability of contaminants) have been suggested as inducers of the phenotypical changes (morphological deformation) in part of the population and, in parallel, of the specific physiological adaptations that result in higher metal accumulation in the "irregular" clams. Cytogenetic and histological analyses showed the presence of tumours in gill cells and digestive system of the affected clams, the prevalence of disseminated neoplasia ranging from 0% to 94% depending on the site. The disease was manifested by a modified karyotype (i.e. an abnormal number and morphology of chromosomes), a higher activity of nucleolar organizer regions (AgNORs), and tissue lesions (enlarged cells, actively proliferative with pleomorphic nuclei). Bottom sediments showed acute toxicity and have been proposed as a source of an initialising carcinogenic factor. However, none of the ecotoxicological studies provided was successful in the clear demonstration of a single (or multifactorial) agent that can account for the disseminated neoplasia.     

Consistency of precipitation products over the Arabian Peninsula and interactions with soil moisture and water storage

The regional-scale consistency between four precipitation products from the GPCC, TRMM, WM, and CMORPH datasets over the Arabian Peninsula was assessed. Their macroscale relationships were inter-compared with soil moisture and total water storage (TWS) estimates from AMSR-E and GRACE. The consistency analysis was studied with multivariate statistical hypothesis testing and Pearson correlation metrics for the period from January 2000 to December 2010. The products and GRACE estimates were assessed over a representative sub-domain (United Arab Emirates) with available in situ well observations. Next, geographically temporally weighted regression (GTWR) was employed to examine the interdependencies among the peninsula’s hydrological components. The results showed GPCC-TRMM recording the highest correlation (0.85) with insignificant mean differences over more than 90% of the peninsula. The highest GTWR predictive performance of TWS (R² = 0.84) was achieved with TRMM forcing, which indicates its potential to monitor changes in TWS over the arid peninsular region.     

Geologic and hydrologic settings for development of freshwater lenses in arid lands

Satellite observations were used to test the validity of previously identified favourable conditions for the formation of freshwater lenses, identify additional potential occurrences, and model modern potential recharge in the Raudhatain Watershed (3696) in northern Kuwait. Favourable conditions include infrequent yet intensive precipitation events, drainage depressions to collect the limited runoff, and presence of conditions (e.g. high infiltration capacity) that promote groundwater recharge and preservation (e.g. underlying saline aquifer) of infiltrating groundwater as freshwater lenses floating over saline aquifer water due to differences in density. Specifically, the following field and satellite‐based observations were noted for the Raudhatain Watershed: (1) Over ~30 precipitation events were identified from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation data (1998–2009); (2) slope is gentle (2 m/km), and the surface is largely (80%) covered by alluvial deposits with high infiltration capacities (up to 9 m/day); (3) no flows and long‐term ponding were reported at the watershed outlet or detected from Landsat thematic mapper images; (4) infiltration is high based on increases in soil moisture content (from an advanced microwave scanning radiometer) and vegetation index following large precipitation events; and (5) freshwater lenses that overlie highly saline [total dissolved solids (TDS): >35 000] unconfined aquifers underlying the watershed are absent in the southern regions, where infiltrating fresh water mixes with the less saline groundwater (TDS: <10 000). Twenty potential locations (size: 1 to 75 km²) for freshwater lens development were identified in northern Kuwait, and continuous rainfall–runoff models (Soil Water and Assessment Tool) were applied to provide a first‐order estimation of the average annual recharge in the watershed (127 × 10⁶ m³) and freshwater lenses (8.17 × 10⁶ m³). Results demonstrate the settings for enhanced opportunities for groundwater recharge, outline the amounts of and preservation conditions for the groundwater feeding the freshwater lenses, and highlight potential applications and locations of freshwater lenses in similar settings elsewhere in the Arabian Peninsula and beyond. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long-term hydrology and aquatic biogeochemistry data from H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest,Cascade Mountains,Oregon

The H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) encompasses the 6400 ha Lookout Creek watershed in western Oregon, USA. Hydrologic, chemistry and precipitation data have been collected, curated, and archived for up to 70 years. The HJA was established in 1948 to study the effects of harvest of old-growth conifer forest and logging-road construction on water quality, quantity and vegetation succession. Over time, research questions have expanded to include terrestrial and aquatic species, communities and ecosystem dynamics. There are nine small experimental watersheds and 10 gaging stations in the HJA, including both reference and experimentally treated watersheds. Gaged watershed areas range from 8.5 to 6242 ha. All gaging stations record stage height, water conductivity, water temperature and above-stream air temperature. At nine of the gage sites, flow-proportional water samples are collected and composited over 3-week intervals for chemical analysis. Analysis of stream and precipitation chemistry began in 1968. Analytes include dissolved and particulate species of nitrogen and phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, pH, specific conductance, suspended sediment, alkalinity, and major cations and anions. Supporting climate measurements began in the 1950s in association with the first small watershed experiments. Over time, and following the initiation of the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) grant in 1980, infrastructure expanded to include a set of benchmark and secondary meteorological stations located in clearings spanning the elevation range within the Lookout Creek watershed, as well as a large number of forest understory temperature stations. Extensive metadata on sensor configurations, changes in methods over time, sensor accuracy and precision, and data quality control flags are associated with the HJA data.     

Efficacy of a multi-metric fish index as an analysis tool for the transitional fish component of the Water Framework Directive

The WFD has introduced an international commitment to assess the ecological status of transitional waters (TWs), within which fish communities are a key biological monitoring component. The Transitional Fish Classification Index (TFCI) outlined in this paper uses 10 ecological measures to analyse fish populations caught from various ecological niches using a variety of gear types within the Thames estuary. These reach and method-specific communities are then compared to a reference population created from a 'healthy' population from TWs of a similar type. The results indicate a progressive downstream increase the quality of fish communities, consistent with previous work; variation between methods can be accounted for by gear selectivity. Overall, the TFCI is an effective communication tool for converting ecological information into an easily understood format for managers, policy makers and the general public.     

Pits,rifts and slumps: the summit structure of Piton de la Fournaise

A clear model of structures and associated stress fields of a volcano can provide a framework in which to study and monitor activity. We propose a volcano-tectonic model for the dynamics of the summit of Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion Island, Indian Ocean). The summit contains two main pit crater structures (Dolomieu and Bory), two active rift zones, and a slumping eastern sector, all of which contribute to the actual fracture system. Dolomieu has developed over 100 years by sudden large collapse events and subsequent smaller drops that include terrace formation. Small intra-pit collapse scars and eruptive fissures are located along the southern floor of Dolomieu. The western pit wall of Dolomieu has a superficial inward dipping normal fault boundary connected to a deeper ring fault system. Outside Dolomieu, an oval extension zone containing sub-parallel pit-related fractures extends to a maximum distance of 225 m from the pit. At the summit the main trend for eruptive fissures is N80°, normal to the north–south rift zone. The terraced structure of Dolomieu has been reproduced by analogue models with a roof to width ratio of approximately 1, suggesting an original magma chamber depth of about 1 km. Such a chamber may continue to act as a storage location today. The east flank has a convex–concave profile and is bounded by strike-slip fractures that define a gravity slump. This zone is bound to the north by strike-slip fractures that may delineate a shear zone. The southern reciprocal shear zone is probably marked by an alignment of large scoria cones and is hidden by recent aa lavas. The slump head intersects Dolomieu pit and may slide on a hydrothermally altered layer known to be located at a depth of around 300 m. Our model has the summit activity controlled by the pit crater collapse structure, not the rifts. The rifts become important on the mid-flanks of the cone, away from pit-related fractures. On the east flank the superficial structures are controlled by the slump. We suggest that during pit subsidence intra-pit eruptions may occur. During tumescence, however, the pit system may become blocked and a flank eruption is more likely. Intrusions along the rift may cause deformation that subsequently increases the slump’s potential to deform. Conversely, slumping may influence the east flank stress distribution and locally control intrusion direction. These predictions can be tested with monitoring data to validate the model and, eventually, improve monitoring.