Simulation of seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation using coupled atmosphere-ocean model

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model intended for the simulation of coupled circulation at time scales up to a season is developed. The semi-Lagrangian atmospheric general circulation model of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, SLAV, is coupled with the sigma model of ocean general circulation developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), INMOM. Using this coupled model, numerical experiments on ensemble modeling of the atmosphere and ocean circulation for up to 4 months are carried out using real initial data for all seasons of an annual cycle in 1989–2010. Results of these experiments are compared to the results of the SLAV model with the simple evolution of the sea surface temperature. A comparative analysis of seasonally averaged anomalies of atmospheric circulation shows prospects in applying the coupled model for forecasts. It is shown with the example of the El Niño phenomenon of 1997–1998 that the coupled model forecasts the seasonally averaged anomalies for the period of the nonstationary El Niño phase significantly better.     

Methane in the water and bottom sediments of the mouth area of the Severnaya Dvina River during the winter time

The spatial distribution of methane in the water and bottom sediments of the mouth area of the Severnaya Dvina River shows quite a similar character during the ice-cover and summer periods. It is characterized by the increase of the gas content from the head of the mouth area towards the delta with maximum values at the sites subjected to permanent anthropogenous impact. The difference consists in the higher level of the methane content in the bottom sediments during the winter period. At the same time, the excess of the winter to summer concentrations in the water was registered only at the stations within the impact area of the sources of anthropogenous contamination. As in the summer, the bottom sediments have a prevailing role in the formation of the level of the methane content in the water of the mouth area. The linear dependence between the concentrations of the total hydrogen sulfide and methane in the surface layer of the riverine sediments is probably caused by the parallel and nonconcurrent proceeding of the generation of these gases, which are controlled by the bacterial communities being not inhibitory to each other.     

Impact of subgrid-scale vegetation heterogeneity on the simulation of carbon-cycle characteristics

The carbon cycle module of the global climate model developed at the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) has been extended by implementing the subgrid-scale heterogeneity (SH) of plant functional types (PFTs). It is found that subgrid-scale PFT heterogeneity enhances the photosynthesis intensity and increases vegetation and soil carbon stocks in grass-dominated regions. In forest-dominated regions, photosynthesis is suppressed and vegetation and soil carbon stocks are diminished. Regionally, accounting for subgrid-scale vegetation heterogeneity may lead to twofold changes in these variables. On the whole, accounting for subgrid-scale PFT heterogeneity enhances (suppresses) the carbon flux in regions where it is directed from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere (from the atmosphere to terrestrial ecosystems).     

On chromatic effects in observations of the Sun near the horizon

The observability of the “green flash” in observations of the Sun near the horizon was calculated. The calculations were conducted with consideration for chromatic refraction, atmosphere transmission, spectral sensitivity of the eye, and image blurring due to the instability and inhomogeneity of the atmosphere.     

Vortex dynamics of a fluid near a boundary with a circular cavity

The motion of a point vortex along a rectilinear boundary with a circle cavity, which models the coastline of a bay, and associated fluid particle advection are studied within a model of barotropic inviscid fluid. Using an analytical expression for the complex potential through which the velocity field is determined, we show that fluid particles start moving irregularly when the vortex is passing the cavity due to the nonstationarity of the velocity field generated by the vortex. Some of the fluid particles which were initially inside the vortex atmosphere leave it due to the irregularity and remain within the cavity vicinity. Depending on the initial position of the vortex and a parameter that determines the cavity size, the fraction of these fluid particles can differ significantly from fluid particles initially uniformly distributed within the vortex atmosphere. The escape of fluid particles from the vortex atmosphere is shown to be most efficient in the case of a relatively closed cavity under the condition that the initial vortex atmosphere area should be significantly smaller than the cavity area.     

Residual hydrodynamic fields after tsunami generation by an earthquake

The linear theory of long waves was applied to study horizontal motions of the water layer in a rotating ocean which appear after tsunami generation by an earthquake. The structures of residual potential and eddy fields are analyzed on the basis of the analytical solution of a model axisymmetric problem for an ocean of constant depth. The estimates of the horizontal displacements of water particles, velocity of the eddy current, and energy of the geostrophic eddy are calculated for typical conditions of the tsunami source. Particular features of the residual fields related to the existence of stable stratification are considered. Static and dynamic numerical models are described that allow us to calculate the residual potential field and its evolution related to the realistic events. The field of residual horizontal displacements of water particles for the catastrophic earthquake near the coasts of Japan on March 11, 2011, is calculated and analyzed.     

A multi‐stock,length‐based assessment model for New Zealand rock lobster (Jasus Edwardsii)

We describe a multi‐stock, length‐based Bayesian assessment model for New Zealand spiny lobster (Jasus edwardsii) fisheries. This model allows simultaneous modelling of two or more stocks with a mixture of common and stock‐specific parameters: recruitment is always stock‐specific, but any other parameter can be specified as either common or stock‐specific. Common parameters are estimated from a wider base than they would be in a single‐stock model. The model's time step is flexible and can be changed during the period being modelled to accommodate better data quality in recent data. Other options include the capacity to estimate movements among stocks, allow density‐dependent growth, and choose among likelihood functions for the various data sets, between finite and instantaneous fishing dynamics and between two forms of selectivity curve.     

Risks of shifting baselines highlighted by anecdotal accounts of New Zealand's snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery

Anecdotal data sources may constitute an important component of the information available about an exploited species, as record keeping may not have occurred until after exploitation began. Here, we aimed to fill any gaps in the exploitative history of the sparid snapper (Pagrus auratus), using social and historical research methods. Social research consisted of interviews with recreational fishers, focusing on the most and largest snapper they had caught. In addition, the diary‐logs of two recreational fishers were analysed. Historical research consisted of investigation of old books, photos, archives and unpublished sources unconventional to fishery science. Interviews with fishers demonstrated no or weak trends in snapper abundance or size, and were likely impeded by a lack of ability to detect change in a fish stock that may still be considered abundant. The fishers’ perception of change, however, largely reflected recent experiences (last c. 10 years), when biomass is understood to have increased, and mostly did not consider experiences before the 1980s. Alternatively, diary‐logs of fisher catch rates produced a pattern that matched formal stock assessments of snapper biomass, suggesting declines in abundance up until the 1990s and an increase in biomass after that time. Historical research, although more qualitative, had the ability to investigate periods where formal records were not kept and described a fishery vastly different from the current one. Snapper were easily caught, in great abundance and in unusual locations. Localised depletion of snapper was first noticed in the early 20th century, despite spectacular catches of snapper occurring after that time. Snapper behaviour was also likely different, with visual sightings of snapper by onlookers a common occurrence. Although predictions from stock assessment models are consistent with that of the anecdotes listed here (i.e., high biomass in the past), these anecdotes are valuable as they explain lost biomass in a perspective meaningful to all. This perspective may be valuable for managers trying to consider the non‐financial value of a shared fishery but, if unrecognised, represents a shifting baseline.     

Sea Level Variations Associated with Upwelling/ Downwelling Along the West Coast of India

A three-dimensional numerical model is developed and used to study the coastal upwelling processes and corresponding seasonal changes in the sea level along the west coast of India. The upwelling and associated sea level variations are seen as a response of coastal ocean to pure wind stress forcing. The model is designed to represent coastal ocean physics by resolving surface and bottom Ekman layers as realistically as possible. The prognostic variables are the three components of the velocity field, temperature, salinity and turbulent energy. The governing equations together with their boundary conditions are solved by finite-difference techniques. Experiments are performed to investigate sea level fluctuations associated with the thermal response and alongshore currents of the coastal waters. The model is forced with mean monthly wind stress forcing of January, May, July and September representing northeast monsoon and different phases of the southwest monsoon. It is known from the observational study that the upwelling process reaches to the surface waters by May along the coastal waters of the extreme southwest peninsular region. The process is more intense in July compared to May and September and its strength decreases from south to north. However, during the northeast monsoon season, which is represented by January wind stress forcing in the model, downwelling is simulated along the coast. The model simulations of the coastal response are compared with the observations and are found to be in good agreement. The maximum computed vertical velocity of about 2.0 2 10 -3 cm s -1 is predicted in July in the southern region off the coast.     

Ibiza Absolute Calibration Experiment: Survey and Preliminary Results

Within the framework of a project comprising part of the Spanish Space Program related to the JASON-1 CNES (Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales)/NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) mission, a campaign was conducted from June 9–17, 2003, on the Absolute Calibration Site of the island of Ibiza. The objective was to determine the local marine geoid slope under the ascending (187) and descending (248) Jason-1 ground tracks, in order to allow a better extrapolation of the open-ocean altimetric data with on-shore tide gauge locations, and thereby improve the overall precision of the calibration process. For this we have used a catamaran with two GPS antennas onboard, following the Corsica/Senetosa design (Bonnefond et al. 2003a Bonnefond, P., Exertier, P., Laurain, O., Menard, Y., Orsoni, A., Jeansou, E., Haines, B., Kubitschek, D. and Born, G. 2003a. Leveling Sea Surface using a GPS catamaran. Marine Geodesy, 26(3–4): 319–334. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Five GPS reference stations were deployed in order to reduce the distance between the areas covered by the catamaran and the fixed GPS receiver used in the kinematic process. The geodetic activities (e.g., GPS, leveling) have enabled the building of a very accurate (few mm) network in a reference frame compatible with the satellite altimetry missions (ITRF 2000). The GPS kinematic data were processed using two different software programmes, allowing checking of the consistency of the solutions. If the standard deviation of the differences (3.3 cm) is close to the kinematic process precision, they exhibit some large values (up to 14 cm). These large discrepancies have been reduced using a weighting based on the crossover differences. Inasmuch as the distances between the tide gauges and the areas covered by the GPS catamaran were becoming large, we have used the MOG2D ocean model (Carrère and Lyard 2003 Carrère, L. and Lyard, F. 2003. Modelling the barotropic response of the global ocean to atmospheric wind and pressure forcing—comparisons with observations. Geophys. Res. Letters, 30(6) [Google Scholar]) to correct the sea surface from tides. In the farthest areas, the crossover differences show an improvement by a factor of two. Finally, we also present preliminary results on Jason-1 altimeter calibration using the derived marine geoid. From this analysis, the altimeter bias is estimated to be 120 ± 5 mm. The quality of this first result validates the whole GPS-based marine geoid processing, for which the accuracy is estimated to be better than 3 cm rms at crossovers.