Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Concentration of trace gases in the lower troposphere,simultaneously recorded at neighboring alpine stations Part III: Sulfur dioxide,nitrogen dioxide,nitric oxide

Summary The importance of representative and long-term recordings of the trace gases SO₂, NO _x , and NO is explained. Recordings taken under different background conditions and, moreover, simultaneously at neighboring mountain stations, together with other meteorological parameters, are of special interest.The recording stations for the determination of the mentioned gases (a valley station at 740 m a.s.l., a nearby mountain station at 1780 m a.s.l.), the measuring methods, calibration procedures, and zero-air supply are described.The main part deals with the representation of consistent data of trace gases obtained at the two stations (NO only in the valley floor). Special attention was given not only to longterm trends but also to the seasonal and diurnal variations, and to the dependence of the gas concentrations on meteorological parameters. Only on the basis of such a parameterization, the time variations become understandable and the causes can be explained as well as possible. Finally, correlations between the concentrations of the different gas components are shown.With 15 Figures     

A preliminary climatology of ground‐based inversions in Canada

Precipitation efficiency is the percentage of the total water vapor over an area that falls to the surface as measurable precipitation on an average day. This variable focuses attention on the dynamic mechanisms that produce different precipitation patterns in different areas. The concept of precipitation efficiency is discussed and its seasonal and annual values are mapped for several Canadian stations. Maximum seasonal values occur in winter for all of the country. National highs are found on the West Coast and along the St. Lawrence Lowland, a result of the cyclonic activity in these regions.     

The Hadley circulation: assessing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and sparse in-situ estimates

 We present a comparison of the zonal mean meridional circulations derived from monthly in situ data (i.e. radiosondes and ship reports) and from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis product. To facilitate the interpretation of the results, a third estimate of the mean meridional circulation is produced by subsampling the reanalysis at the locations where radiosonde and surface ship data are available for the in situ calculation. This third estimate, known as the subsampled estimate, is compared to the complete reanalysis estimate to assess biases in conventional, in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation associated with the sparseness of the data sources (i.e., radiosonde network). The subsampled estimate is also compared to the in situ estimate to assess the biases introduced into the reanalysis product by the numerical model, initialization process and/or indirect data sources such as satellite retrievals. The comparisons suggest that a number of qualitative differences between the in situ and reanalysis estimates are mainly associated with the sparse sampling and simplified interpolation schemes associated with in situ estimates. These differences include: (1) a southern Hadley cell that consistently extends up to 200 hPa in the reanalysis, whereas the bulk of the circulation for the in situ and subsampled estimates tends to be confined to the lower half of the troposphere, (2) more well-defined and consistent poleward limits of the Hadley cells in the reanalysis compared to the in-situ and subsampled estimates, and (3) considerably less variability in magnitude and latitudinal extent of the Ferrel cells and southern polar cell exhibited in the reanalysis estimate compared to the in situ and subsampled estimates. Quantitative comparison shows that the subsampled estimate, relative to the reanalysis estimate, produces a stronger northern Hadley cell (∼20%), a weaker southern Hadley cell (∼20–60%), and weaker Ferrel cells in both hemispheres. These differences stem from poorly measured oceanic regions which necessitate significant interpolation over broad regions. Moreover, they help to pinpoint specific shortcomings in the present and previous in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation. Comparisons between the subsampled and in situ estimates suggest that the subsampled estimate produces a slightly stronger Hadley circulation in both hemispheres, with the relative differences in some seasons as large as 20–30%. 6These differences suggest that the mean meridional circulation associated with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is more energetic than observations suggest. Examination of ENSO-related changes to the Hadley circulation suggest that the in situ and subsampled estimates significantly overestimate the effects of ENSO on the Hadley circulation due to the reliance on sparsely distributed data. While all three estimates capture the large-scale region of low-level equatorial convergence near the dateline that occurs during El Nino, the in situ and subsampled estimates fail to effectively reproduce the large-scale areas of equatorial mass divergence to the west and east of this convergence area, leading to an overestimate of the effects of ENSO on the zonal mean circulation. Received: 16 September 1998 / Accepted: 22 April 1999     

Selenium in a shore bird,the dunlin,from the Dutch Waddenzee

The hypothesis that Se is secreted by birds via the preen gland or salt glands, thus contaminating the feathers, has been investigated. It is concluded that the feather vanes show indirectly in this way the birds' e?posure to Se. Therefore they can be used as an indicator tissue for this element.     

Nowcasting with INCA During SNOW-V10

A Central-European nowcasting system which has been developed for use in mountainous terrain is tested in the Whistler/Vancouver area as part of the SNOW-V10 experiment. The integrated nowcasting through comprehensive analysis system provides hourly updated gridded forecasts of temperature, humidity, and wind, as well as precipitation forecasts which are updated every 15 min. It is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) output and real-time surface weather station and radar data. Verification of temperature, relative humidity, and wind against surface stations shows that forecast errors are significantly reduced in the nowcasting range compared to those of the driving NWP model. The main contribution to the improvement comes from the implicit bias correction due to use of the latest observations. Relative humidity shows the longest lasting effect, with >50 % reduction of mean absolute error up to +4 h. For temperature and wind speed this percentage is reached after +2 and +3 h, respectively. Two cases of precipitation nowcasting are discussed and verified qualitatively.     

Observability of Single Neutron Stars at SRG/eROSITA

Astronomy Reports - A four-year sky survey with the use of the eROSITA telescope on board the Spektr-RG observatory with focusing optics will provide the best coverage in the soft (0.5–2 keV)...     

Transport rate of drifting snow and the mean wind speed profile

Transport rates, measured by weighing snow blown into a filter fabric trap, were greater over hard snow or ice than for the same wind speed over soft, fresh snow surfaces. Analysis of wind speed profiles from nine blizzards showed that friction between moving particles and the surface was less, and particle speeds were greater over hard surfaces. Transport rates at a given wind speed increased rapidly as aerodynamic roughness decreased in the rough-smooth transition region. Bagnold's theory for bed load transport provided a useful framework for the analysis.