Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts: reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts”*

ABSTRACT

We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they challenge us to think a step further on how to foster the collection of long time series of data and how to use these to model and project changes. Here, we elaborate on the possibility to collect time series of data on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts and how these could be used to improve e.g. socio-hydrological models for the development of future risk scenarios.     

Influence of rainfall on the deformation and stability of a slope in overconsolidated clays: a case study

The behaviour of an instrumented unstable slope in a profile of weathered overconsolidated clay has been analysed. Available field investigation data and laboratory tests were integrated in a coupled hydromechanical model of the slope. Particular attention was given to the unsaturated soil conditions above the water table and to the influence of the rainfall record. Recorded pore-water pressures helped to identify the hydrogeological conditions of the slope. The coupled model was used to compute slope deformations and the variation of safety with time. Actual rainfall records were also integrated into the analysis. Comparison of measurements and calculations illustrate the nature of the slope instability and the complex relationships between mechanical and hydraulic factors. Electronic Publication     

Petrology and Geochemistry of the Volcanic Rocks Dredged from the Geophysicist Seamount in the Kurile Basin: Evidence for the Existence of Thinned Continental Crust

Dredged samples from the Geophysicist seamount volcano in the northeastern part of the Kurile Basin include volcanic and volcanoclastic rocks ranging from basalt to andesite. The rocks have geochemical features typical of high-K island-arc calc-alkaline volcanism. They are enriched in LILE and depleted in Zr, Ti, Nb, Ta and Y. The chondrite-normalized REE patterns are characterized by enrichment of LREE similar to those of island-arc lava from the submarine volcanoes of rear-arc zone of the Kurile Island Arc. The volcanic rocks have a wide range of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.70287-0.70652), varying ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd and Pb isotopic ratios. Their trace-element compositions and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope signatures may be explained by a small addition of crustal continental component to mantle-derived magmas that suggest the existence of thinned continental basement under the eastern part of the Kurile Basin.     

Masses of stellar black holes and testing theories of gravitation

The paper analyzes the mass distribution of stellar black holes derived from the light and radial-velocity curves of optical stars in close binary systems using dynamical methods. The systematic errors inherent in this approach are discussed. These are associated primarily with uncertainties in models for the contribution from gaseous structures to the optical brightness of the systems under consideration. The mass distribution is nearly flat in the range 4–15M _⊙. This is compared with the mass distribution for black holes in massive close binaries, which can be manifest as ultrabright X-ray sources (L _x >10³⁹ erg/s) observed in other galaxies. If the X-ray luminosities of these objects correspond to the Eddington limit, the black-hole mass distribution should be described by a power law, which is incompatible with the flat shape derived dynamically from observations of close binaries in our Galaxy. One possible explanation of this discrepancy is the rapid evaporation of stellar-mass black holes predicted in recent multi-dimensional models of gravity. This hypothesis can be verified by refining the stellar black-hole mass spectrum or finding isolated or binary black holes with masses below ～3M _⊙.     

Energy spectra and relative abundances of ions of C,O, and Fe at 1 AU during the quiet sun

The ion composition of fluxes of charged particles in interplanetary space with energies ∼0.03–10 MeV/nucleon are studied during quiet periods in the 23rd solar-activity cycle using data from the ACE spacecraft. Apart from the activity minimum, the Fe/O ratio during such periods corresponds to either the relative abundances of ions in particle fluxes accelerated in solar flares or the mean abundances of elements in the solar corona. At the cycle minimum, this ratio takes on values characteristic for the solar wind. These results indicate that the background fluxes of low-energy particles in the phases of the growth, maximum, and decay of the solar cycle include significant contributions from both coronal particles accelerated to suprathermal energies and particles accelerated in small impulsive solar flares. The particle fluxes from such flares are distinguished by an enhanced abundance of iron ions.     

Geological Relationships Between the Intrusions,Country Rocks,and Ni-Cu-PGE Sulfides of the Kharaelakh Intrusion,Noril′sk Region:Implications for the Roles of Sulfide Differentiation and Metasomatism in Their Genesis

The Ni-Cu-platinum group element sulfide ore deposits of the Kharaelakh Intrusion,Noril′sk Region,Siberia,represent a large concentration of sulfides associated with a small differentiated intrusion formed at the edge of the Siberian Craton in the roots of the Siberian Trap flood basalt.The deposit is associated with an intrusion that occupies a flanking periclinal structure adjacent to the Noril′sk-Kharaelakh Fault.The intrusion is strongly differentiated and comprises taxitic gabbrodolerites,picritic gabbrodolerites,and gabbrodolerites within the main body which in turn forms a chonolith within a sheet-like intrusion that extends laterally to form extensive undifferentiated sills of gabbrodolerite.The intrusion substantially replaces the stratigraphy of the country rocks,and although it appears to have exploited the axis of structures developed in response to transtension,the intrusion has created space by both mechanical dilation of stratigraphy and magmatic replacement of pre-existing sedimentary rocks.The frontal lobes of the main intrusion have complex apophyses of gabrodolerite on a range of scales that demonstrate replacement of the sedimentary rocks and link to the development of an extensive metamorphic halo in the country rocks.This halo is much narrower over the main body of the intrusion,and these observations have implications for the thermal history of the intrusion.Mg-skarns and breccias are developed in the roof of the main body of the intrusion.Within the intrusion,the taxitic rocks contain vesicles and the blebby sulfides developed in the picritic and taxitic gabbrodolerites appear to have a linkage to volatile phases.Cuprous sulfide mineralization developed at the roof of the Kharaelakh Intrusion is associated with metamorphosed and skarn-bearing country rocks,and appears to have been generated by a combination of sulfide fractionation and associated metasomatism.The geological relationships appear consistent with a chonolith model for the development of the differentiated intrusion and mineralization,but the extent of metasmorphism of the country rocks appears to be related to the unusual thickness of gabbrodolerite apophyses at the flanks of the intrusion rather than metamorphism produced by the passage of mafic magma through the intrusion.Variations in disseminated sulfide compositions and metasomatic textures in the skarns are described,and a model is proposed which balances traditional views on the evolution of the magma conduits with the impact of magmatic fluids transported through the magma column(i.e.transmagmatic fluids).The importance of structures in controlling the nature of the conduit,and the resultant small intrusions with excess sulfide is a feature of many other Ni-Cu sulfide deposits including Voisey′s Bay,and it is suggested that the sulfides are more likely to have beentransported from depth into their final resting place rather than developed by in-situ equilibration of sulfide with fresh magma in the chonolith.