Is there a relationship between the density of primordial black holes in a galaxy and the rate of cosmological gamma-ray bursts?

The rate of accretion of matter from a solar-type star onto a primordial black hole (PBH) that passes through it is calculated. The probability that a PBH is captured into an orbit around a star in a galaxy is found. The mean lifetime of the PBH in such an orbit and the rate of orbital captures of PBHs in the galaxy are calculated. It is shown that this rate does not depend on the mass of the PBH. This mechanism cannot make an appreciable contribution to the rate of observed gamma-ray bursts. The density of PBHs in the galaxy can reach a critical value—the density of the mass of dark matter in the galaxy.     

Size and shape of near-spherical Allegan chondrules

Chondrules were extracted from a disaggregated sample of the Allegan meteorite. Individual chondrules were examined with apparatus incorporating two orthogonal binocular microscopes, and their three major axes measured. Maximum chondrule diameters ranged from 0.15 to 2.75 mm with a peak in distribution between 0.35 and 0.75 mm. The chondrule size distribution was found not to conform to Rosin's law. The chondrules were found to depart from sphericity by only small amounts. The authors still believe that the melting of nebula dust-ball agglomerates by some high-energy event was the most probable mechanism for the formation of chondrules.     

Mars data analysis program special issue no. 2

An extended photometric time series in the J and K bands of Neptune has a complex appearance which appears to require the simultaneous presence of three periodicities plus related harmonics in the (J-K) color. The most apparent of the fundamental periods is N1 = 17.73 hr. The two others are at N2 = 18.56 and N3 = 18.29 hr and may be the result of amplitude modulation of a previously reported period of 18.42 hr. We interpret the presence of multiple periodicity as indicating that distinct systems of zonal winds exist on the planet. We argue that these wind systems are probably confined to moderate or high latitudes on the basis of recent omages of the planet taken in a spectral region of strong CH₄ absorption, and, by analogy to the zonal wind systems that exist in Jupiter's atmosphere, deduce a period of rotation for the body of the planet of 18.2 ± 0.4 hr. Zonal wind contrasts of up to 109 m sec^?1 are implied in the atmosphere of Neptune by these observations.     

Geochronology of anthropogenic pollutants in riparian wetland sediments of the Lippe River (Germany)

Anthropogenic pollutants were determined in a dated sediment core, collected from a riparian wetland of the Lippe River (Ruhr district, Germany). The historical trend in heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, organochlorines, polychlorinated biphenyls and linear alkylbenzenes as well as more recent contaminants such as industrial additives, organotins, synthetic musks, methyltriclosan and some other compounds were determined for the time period between 1930 and 1986. Emission sources, information on technical production and usage, as well as on the individual pollution pathways, with appropriate environmental stability, were considered in the interpretation of the sediment contamination over the past 50 years.Contaminants were analysed and interpreted according to two different criteria: (a) the origin of the main contaminants as related to mining and industrial activities as well as municipal sewage and agricultural effluents and (b) the pollution history. Due to a significant appearance of formerly missing contaminants in sediments deposited since 1970, we suggest classifying contaminants as either common (predating 1970) or modern (postdating 1970).In summary, the study provided a comprehensive reconstruction of the pollution history of the Lippe River system.     

Peculiarities of surface air temperature variations over the Far East regions in 1976–2005

Peculiarities are investigated of the air temperature variation tendencies at some stations of the Far East in 1976–2005. The estimate of linear trend equation coefficients is computed according to the air temperature observation data using the least squares method. It is demonstrated that the air temperature trend in northern regions possesses a small probability at small values of residual variability. In the southern regions, the trend significance increases for almost all seasons at small values of residual variability. At midlatitude stations, the trend significance in January and February decreases considerably due to the large values of residual variability.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of dry spell lengths in the Iberian Peninsula for the second half of the twentieth century

Summary Daily pluviometric records of 43 meteorological stations across the Iberian Peninsula have permitted a detailed analysis of dry spell patterns for the period 1951–2000 by distinguishing daily amount thresholds of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. The analyses are based on three annual series, namely the number of dry spells, N, the average dry spell length, L, and the extreme dry spell length, L _max. First, the statistical significance of local trends for the annual series of N, L and L _max has been investigated by means of the Mann-Kendall test and significant field trends have been established by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Clear signs of negative field trends are detected for N (1.0 and 10.0 mm/day) and L (0.1 mm/day). Second, the Weibull model fits well the empirical distributions of dry spell lengths for all the rain gauges, whatever the daily amount threshold, with a well ranged spatial distribution of their parameters u and k. On the basis of the Weibull distribution, return period maps for 2, 5, 10, 25 and 50 years have been obtained for dry spell lengths with respect to the four daily threshold levels. While for 0.1 and 1.0 mm/day the longest dry spells are expected at the south of the Iberian Peninsula, for 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day they are mostly detected at the southeast. Finally, the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells has been analysed by considering the same rain amount thresholds and different dry spell lengths at increasing intervals of 10 days. This analysis makes evident a significant negative field trend of the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells of lengths ranging from 10 to 20 days for daily amount thresholds of 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. Authors’ addresses: X. Lana, C. Serra, Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, ETSEIB, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Av. Diagonal 647 planta 11, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; M. D. Marínez, Departament de Física Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; A. Burgue?o, Departament de Meteorologia i Astronomia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; J. Martín-Vide, L. Gómez, Grup de Climatologia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.     

Testing for similarity in area‐based spatial patterns: Alternative methods to Andresen's spatial point pattern test

Andresen's spatial point pattern test (SPPT) compares two spatial point patterns on defined areal units; it identifies areas where the spatial point patterns diverge and aggregates these local (dis)similarities to one global measure. We discuss the limitations of the SPPT and provide two alternative methods to calculate differences in the point patterns. In the first approach we use differences in proportions tests corrected for multiple comparisons. We show how the size of differences matters, as with large point patterns many areas will be identified by SPPT as statistically different, even if those differences are substantively trivial. The second approach uses multinomial logistic regression, which can be extended to identify differences in proportions over continuous time. We demonstrate these methods by identifying areas where pedestrian stops by the New York City Police Department are different from violent crimes for 2006–2016.     

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

Do households prefer to move up or down the urban hierarchy during an economic crisis?

Journal of Geographical Systems - In this paper, we investigate the relationship between adverse economic circumstances and the desire of Dutch households to move up or down the urban hierarchy. We...     

遥感解译在新疆策勒县地质灾害调查中的应用

新疆策勒县地处低-中山区,地质灾害频发.本文首先以RapidEye和ASTER GDEM数据为数据源,在建立遥感解译标志的基础上,采用计算机自动提取和人工判读相结合,遥感解译结果与野外验证相结合的方法,进行了策勒县遥感地质灾害解译.共解译出各类地质灾害点108处,其中崩塌60处、滑坡27处、泥石流21处.其次,利用Ar...