样本输入方式对极端学习机预报日长变化的影响

针对极端学习机(Extreme Learning Machine,ELM)用于日长(Length-Of-Day,LOD)变化预报过程中,样本输入方式对预报结果的影响进行了研究。采用跨度、连续和迭代3种样本输入方式对日长变化进行预报。结果表明,不同的样本输入方式对预报结果有很大影响,样本按跨度输入的预报精度最低;样本采用连续输入方式在短期和中长期预报中预报精度较高,但计算速度较慢,较适合中长期预报;样本按迭代输入方式的短期预报精度稍优于连续输入方式,而中长期预报精度则不如连续输入方式,但具有较高的预报效率。这对于日长变化的实时快速预报有着较高的现实意义。     

主要作物产量分离方法比较

对作物产量进行分离是分析气象因子对产量影响的重要步骤之一。以1985—2018年江苏省24个县（市）水稻统计产量为基础,分别采用3年滑动平均法、5年滑动平均法、五点二次平滑法、二次指数平滑法、HP滤波法和年际增量法对作物产量进行分离。从趋势产量与气象产量两方面比较6种方法的一致性与差异性,将分离出的气象产量与典型年增减产记录对比,选出更能准确捕获气象因子导致产量变异的方法,利用气象因子与产量关系的合理性对选定的方法进行检验。结果表明:就趋势产量拟合而言,前5种方法（年际增量法不能模拟趋势产量）均能较好地拟合趋势产量,与研究区域的趋势产量的一致性相关系数绝大多数为较好和极好等级范围;就气象产量而言,HP滤波法和年际增量法分离气象产量的合理性较差,标准差明显大于其他方法。综合看,3年滑动平均法与五点二次平滑法更具有普适性,可以捕获整个地区绝大多数典型年份气象因子带来的产量变化。     

Comparison of Liquid Water Content Retrievals for Airborne Millimeter-Wave Radar with Different Particle Parameter Schemes

In the application of the physical iterative method to retrieve millimeter-wave radar liquid water content(LWC) and liquid water path(LWP), particle parameter scheme is the main factor affecting retrieval performance. In this paper, synchronous measurements of an airborne millimeter-wave radar and a hot-wire probe in stratus cloud are used to compare the LWC retrievals of the oceanic and continental particle parameter scheme with diameter less than 50μm and the particle parameter scheme with diameter less than 500μm and 1500μm(scheme 1, scheme 2, scheme 3, and scheme4, respectively). The results show that the particle parameter scheme needs to be selected according to the reflectivity factor when using the physical iterative method to retrieve the LWC and LWP. When the reflectivity factor is less than-30 d BZ, the retrieval error of scheme 1 is the minimum. When the reflectivity factor is greater than-30 d BZ, the retrieval error of scheme 4 is the minimum. Based on the reflectance factor value, the LWP retrievals of scheme 4 are closer to the measurements, the average relative bias is 5.2%, and the minimum relative bias is 4.4 %. Compared with other schemes,scheme 4 seems to be more useful for the LWC and LWP retrieval of stratus cloud in China.     

北方地区日光温室气候适宜性区划方法

通过对我国北方地区影响日光温室生产的主要气候因素进行分析,从光、温、风、雪4个方面选取了冬季总辐射、日光温室生产季阴天日数、年极端最低气温、冬季平均气温、生产季月最大风速平均值、年最大积雪深度平均值6个因子作为气候适宜性区划指标,采用加权指数求和的评价方法建立综合气候适宜性区划指标模型,在利用层次分析法对区划指标进行量化分析确定其权重的基础上,借助GIS技术,得到北方地区日光温室发展的气候适宜性区划图。为了细化区划结果,将研究区域气候特征明显不同的典型区域分别进行进一步区划。结果表明:该方法不仅理论性较强,与实际相吻合的区划结果也说明该方法还具有良好的实用性。     

虚拟化技术在气象的应用

随着气象部门信息化建设的不断发展,服务器数量持续增加,现有信息系统架构普遍存在应用与数据混杂、安全性差、资源配置和利用不合理、管理水平低等问题。本文以宁波市气象服务中心信息系统虚拟化改造为例,通过应用效果来说明实施虚拟化技术对于气象部门提高业务可用性、资源利用率和管理水平等方面所具有的优势。     

基于经验模式分解和最小二乘支持向量机的卫星钟差预报

针对卫星钟差(satellite clock bias,SCB)呈现非线性、非平稳变化的特性,提出结合经验模式分解(empirical mode decomposition,EMD)和最小二乘支持向量机(least squares support vector machines,LSSVM)的钟差预报方法.首先对钟差相邻历元间作一次差,并利用经验模式分解将差分序列分解成若干不同频率的平稳分量,分解后的分量突出了差分序列不同的局部特征;然后根据各个分量的变化规律,选择合适的核函数和相关参数构造不同的最小二乘支持向量机模型分别预报;最后将各分量预报值叠加得到一次差预报值,再将其还原得到钟差预报值.实验结果表明,所提方法与常用的二次多项式(quadratic polynomial,QP)模型、灰色系统(grey model,GM)模型和单一的最小二乘支持向量机模型相比,具有较高的预报精度和较强的泛化能力.     

Genetic study of Kelp “901” strain

Based on DNA extraction and optimization of random amplified reaction (RAPD) to the gametophytes and sporophytes of Kelp “901” strain, genetic study on variation was conducted to its parents and offsprings of F6, F7,Fs, and F9 generation. RAPD results have shown that among 30 selected primers for gametophytes, 297 loci ranging from 200 to 3 000 bp were obtained in the average of 9,9 loci for each primer, This indicated a high polymorphic rate with RAPD detection. UPGMA (unweighted pair-group method arithmetic average) analysis showed that each male and female gametophyte of a generation could be clustered into one pair separately. The genetic distances of the Kelp 901 generation were 0.321 2-0.476 7, and the maximum was between F7 and Fs (0.476 7). Identity analysis showed that F6 generation was more close to the female parent (0.659 3), and F7 generation was more close to the male parent (0.5788). To the sporophytes study in 24 selected primers for RAPD amplification, 191 loci ranging from 230-2 800 bp were obtained, in the average to each primer of 8.0 loci. The heterozygosity to six populations were male parent (0.223 9),female parent (0.107 2), F6 (0.216 4), F7 (0.228 6), F8 (0.229 6) and F9 (0.317 2). The nearest genetic distance was 0.083 5 (Fs, F9). Total heterozygosity (HT) ofF6, F7, F8 and F9 generations was 0.318 6, the average heterozygosity (Hs) for F6,F7, F8 and F9 generations was 0.248 0, and deduced coefficient of population differentiation (Gst) was 22.2%. Six sequence characterized amplified regions (SCAR) were preliminary screened through RAPD analysis. It needed to be verified in detail as they are significant for molecular marker assistance in breeding and selecting Laminaria.     

6─溴─苯并噻唑偶氮变色酸双波长标准加入法同时测定铁和铝的研究

于５５℃水浴加热条件下，在阳离子表面活性剂ＣＴＭＡＢ存在的ＨＡｃＮａＡｃ（ｐＨ６２）缓冲介质中，Ｆｅ（Ⅲ）和Ａｌ（Ⅲ）均能与６溴苯并噻唑偶氮变色酸（６ＢｒＢＴＣＡ）形成有色配合物，其最大吸收波长分别为６６４ｎｍ和６４２ｎｍ，表观摩尔吸光系数分别为１１４×１０５和１０８×１０５Ｌ·ｍｏｌ－１·ｃｍ－１，配合物吸光度至少稳定２４ｈ，组成比均为ｎＭ∶ｎＲ＝１∶２。用双波长标准加入法同时测定铁和铝，方法灵敏度高且消除了吸收光谱严重重叠的影响，用于硅砖、石灰石中铁和铝的同时测定，结果满意     

Analysis of ERS-2 scatterometer winds and wind-wave calculation for eastern China seas

The wind system over the China seas plays an important role in climate variation there. In this paper, ERS-2 scatterometer winds covering the period of 1998 and the area of 25-41°N, 117-130°E were analyzed and compared to NCEP winds and buoy winds in the same period and location, to assess how well the ERS-2 data reflect the real wind regime, at least for this area. The results indicated that ERS-2 scatterometer winds are closer to buoy observations than NCEP winds. In addition, a new wind-wave growth relation was applied to calculate wave parameters.