Inter-decadal Variability in Phytoplankton Community in the Middle Adriatic (Kaštela Bay) in Relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Evaluation of a 45-year data set of primary production (PP), a 30-year data set of phytoplankton biomass, and a 51-year data set of species composition shows an increase of phytoplankton biomass and abundance in the period from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. Phytoplankton biomass showed bimodal seasonal cycles, with winter and spring maxima, which did not change over the past 30 years. Diatoms were the most abundant functional group and they prevailed during the colder part of the year while the dinoflagellate contribution to the phytoplankton community increased in the warmer period from May to August. Diatoms showed a significant negative correlation with sea surface temperature (SST), while dinoflagellates were positively correlated with SST. An increase of phytoplankton abundance, particularly dinoflagellate, in the period from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s coincided with years characterized by a high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Primary production and chlorophyll a concentration in the spring period were negatively correlated with the NAO winter (DJFM) index, probably caused by increased precipitation associated with a low or negative NAO index. PP in winter during the mixing period was positively related to the NAO winter index associated with higher temperatures and dry conditions which brought more clear days and increased input of solar radiation.     

Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections: The Drag-Based Model

We present the “Drag-Based Model” (DBM) of heliospheric propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The DBM is based on the hypothesis that the driving Lorentz force, which launches a CME, ceases in the upper corona and that beyond a certain distance the dynamics becomes governed solely by the interaction of the ICME and the ambient solar wind. In particular, we consider the option where the drag acceleration has a quadratic dependence on the ICME relative speed, which is expected in a collisionless environment, where the drag is caused primarily by emission of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. In this paper we present the simplest version of DBM, where the equation of motion can be solved analytically, providing explicit solutions for the Sun–Earth ICME transit time and impact speed. This offers easy handling and straightforward application to real-time space-weather forecasting. Beside presenting the model itself, we perform an analysis of DBM performances, applying a statistical and case-study approach, which provides insight into the advantages and drawbacks of DBM. Finally, we present a public, DBM-based, online forecast tool.     

Variability of droughts in the Czech Republic, 1881–2006

We analyze droughts in the Czech Republic from 1881–2006 based on the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and the Z-index using averaged national temperature and precipitation series for the calculations. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), PDSI and Z-index series show an increasing tendency towards longer and more intensive dry episodes in which, for example, droughts that occurred in the mid-1930s, late 1940s–early 1950s, late 1980s–early 1990s and early 2000s were the most severe. Cycles at periods of 3.4–3.5, 4.2–4.3, 5.0–5.1 and 15.4 years exceeded 95% confidence levels in application of maximum entropy spectral analysis. These are expressed at different intensities throughout the period studied. The occurrence of extremely dry and severely dry months is associated with a higher frequency of anticyclonic situations according to the classification employed by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. Principal component analysis documents the importance of the ridge from the Siberian High over Central Europe when extreme and severe droughts in months of the winter half-year are considered in terms of sea-level pressure. In the summer half-year, the ridge of the Azores High over Central Europe is the most important. Drought episodes have a profound effect on national and regional agricultural production, with yields being consistently lower than in normal years, as is documented through the example of spring barley, winter wheat, forage crops on arable land, and hay from meadows. Seasons with pronounced drought during the April–June period (e.g., 1947 and 2000) show the most significant yield decreases. Forests appear to be very vulnerable to long-term drought episodes, as it was the case during the dry years of 1992–1994. This study clearly confirms the statistically significant tendency to more intensive dry episodes in the region, driven by temperature increase and precipitation decrease, which has already been suggested in other studies.     

Abrupt light changes and multiperiodicity in Be stars: EW Lacertae revisited

The combined 1983 campaign and Seoul data on the variable Be star EW Lac is reanalyzed. CLEANing of the Fourier transform of the present time series clearly shows more than a single period. A multiperiodic fit can account also for a sudden brightness change through frequency beating. Comparison with previous multiperiodic solutions based on data obtained in different seasons shows highly variable amplitudes of the pulsational frequencies. The consequence of this finding to variable shell activity of EW Lac is briefly pointed out.Yonsei University Observatory Contribution No. 98.     

ON THE POSSIBLE CHANGES OF THE SOLAR DIFFERENTIAL ROTATION DURING THE ACTIVITY CYCLE DETERMINED USING MICROWAVE LOW-BRIGHTNESS-TEMPERATURE REGIONS AND Hα FILAMENTS AS TRACERS

The solar rotation rate obtained using the microwave Low-brightness-Temperature Regions (LTRs) as tracers in the heliographic range ± 55° from the years 1979–1980, 1981–1982, 1987–1988, and 1989–1991 varied from 3% to 4% in medium latitudes, and below 1% at the equator. Using H filaments as tracers at higher latitudes from the years 1979, 1980, 1982, 1984, and 1987, the solar rotation rate variation was between 2% and 8%. This represents an upper limit on the rotation rate variation during the solar activity cycle. Such changes could be caused by short-lived, large-scale velocity patterns on the solar surface. The Sun revealed a higher rotation rate on the average during the maxima of the solar activity cycles 21 and 22, i.e., in the periods 1979–1980 and 1989–1991, respectively, which differs from the rotation rates (lower on the average) in some years, 1981–1982 and 1987–1988, between the activity maximum and minimum (LTR data). Simultaneous comparison of rotation rates from LTRs and H filament tracings was possible in very limited time intervals and latitude bands only, and no systematic relationship was found, although the rotation rates determined by LTRs were mostly smaller than the rotation rates determined by H filaments. The errors obtained by applying different fitting procedures of the LTR data were analyzed, as well as the influence of the height correction. Finally, the north–south asymmetry in the rotation rate investigated by LTRs indicates that the southern solar hemisphere rotated slower in the periods under consideration, the difference being about 1%. The reliability of all obtained results is discussed and a comparison with other related studies was performed.     

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation for mesoscale and storm-scale applications

Summary ?The status and progress of the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) are briefly reviewed focusing on application to prediction of mesoscale/storm-scale atmospheric phenomena. Theoretical background is provided for each important component of the 4DVAR system – forecast and adjoint models, observations, background, cost function, preconditioning, and minimization. An overview of practical issues specific for mesoscale/storm-scale 4DVAR is then presented in terms of high-resolution observations, nonlinearity and discontinuity problem, model error, errors from lateral boundary condition, and precipitation assimilation. Practical strategies for efficient and simplified 4DVAR are also introduced, e.g., incremental 4DVAR, poor man’s 4DVAR, and inverse 3DVAR. A new concept on hybrid approach is proposed to combine an efficient 4DVAR scheme and the standard 4DVAR scheme aiming at reducing computational demand required by the standard 4DVAR while improving the accuracy of the simplified 4DVAR. Applications to both hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic models are illustrated and our vision on opportunities and directions for future research is provided. Received March 12, 2001; revised July 24, 2001; accepted September 5, 2001     

Modelling climate change impacts on maize growth and development in the Czech Republic

Summary The crop growth model CERES-Maize is used to estimate the direct (through enhanced fertilisation effect of ambient CO₂) and indirect (through changed climate conditions) effects of increased concentration of atmospheric CO₂ on maize yields. The analysis is based on multi-year crop model simulations run with daily weather series obtained alternatively by a direct modification of observed weather series and by a stochastic weather generator. The crop model is run in two settings: stressed yields are simulated in water and nutrient limited conditions, potential yields in water and nutrient unlimited conditions. The climate change scenario was constructed using the output from the ECHAM3/T42 model (temperature), regression relationships between temperature and solar radiation, and an expert judgement (precipitation). Results: (i) After omitting the two most extreme misfits, the standard error between the observed and modelled yields is 11%. (ii) The direct effect of doubled CO₂: The stressed yields would increase by 36–41% in the present climate and by 61–66% in the 2 × CO₂ climate. The potential yields would increase only by 9–10% as the improved water use efficiency does not apply. (iii) The indirect effect of doubled CO₂: The stressed yields would decrease by 27–29% (14–16%) at present (doubled) ambient CO₂ concentration. The increased temperature shortens the phenological phases and does not allow for the optimal development of the crop. The simultaneous decrease of precipitation and increase of temperature and solar radiation deepen the water stress, thereby reducing the yields. The reduction of the potential yields is significantly smaller as the effect of the increased water stress does not apply. (iv) If both direct and indirect effects of doubled CO₂ are considered, the stressed yields should increase by 17–18%, and the potential yields by 5–14%. (v) The decrease of the stressed yields due to the indirect effect may be reduced by applying earlier planting dates. Received March 9, 2001 Revised September 25, 2001