On forecasting of cyclogenesis in the West Mediterranean and other areas bounded by mountain ranges by baroclinic model

Summary Changes occurring in the thermal structure of air masses in the Alps area and the West Mediterranean region, during cyclonic developments in the Gulf of Genoa, have been considered. The effect of the height and the form of the mountain ranges as well as that of the nonadiabatic processes, on the deformation of the thickness pattern, have been discussed. These factors have been further taken into consideration for a modification of the equations used inEstoque's method for the baroclinic model, and a new method has been developed for forecasting cyclogenesis in regions bounded by mountain ranges.

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Zusasmmenfassung Es werden die Änderungen der thermischen Struktur der Luftmassen im Alpengebiet und im westlichen Mittelmeerraum bei der Entwicklung von Zyklonen im Golf von Genua aufgezeigt und die Einflüsse von Höhe und Form der Gebirgszüge sowie von nichtadiabatischen Vorgängen auf die Deformation der relativen Topographie besprochen. Diese Faktoren werden auch zur Modifikation der in der Methode vonEstoque für ein baroklines Modell verwendeten Gleichungen in Betracht gezogen und damit wird eine neue Methode zur Vorhersage der Zyklogenese unter dem Einfluß von Gebirgszügen entwickelt.

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Résumé On expose dans ce mémoire à quelles modifications la structure thermique des masses d'air est soumise dans la région des Alpes et dans le bassin occidental de la Méditerranée lors du développement de dépressions sur le Golfe de Gênes. On y discute en outre l'influence de la hauteur et de la forme des chaînes de montagnes ainsi que celle des processus non-adiabatiques sur des déformations de la topographie relative. Tous ces éléments sont pris en considération pour leur adapter les équations utilisées dans le modèle baroclined'Estoque. Par là, on accède à une nouvelle méthode de prévision de la cyclogénèse, méthode qui tient compte de l'influence des chaînes de montagnes.

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With 5 Figures     

Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches

A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity, and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for twenty-first century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100, the CO₂ concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm, the CO₂-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm, oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91, in comparison to a pH change from a preindustrial level by 0.1 unit. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0°C relative to 2000. Such increases will require considerable adaptation of many human systems and will leave some aspects of the earth??s environment irreversibly changed. Thus, the remarkable aspect of these different approaches to scenario development is not the differences in detail and philosophy but rather the similar picture they paint of a world at risk from climate change even if there is substantial effort to reduce emissions.     

Interglacial History of a Palaeo-lake and Regional Environment: A Multi-proxy Study of a Permafrost Deposit from Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island, Arctic Siberia

Chironomid, pollen, and rhizopod records from a permafrost sequence at Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island (New Siberian Archipelago) document the development of a thermokarst palaeo-lake and environmental conditions in the region during the last Interglacial (MIS 5e). Open Poaceae and Artemisia associations dominated vegetation at the beginning of the interglacial period. Rare shrub thickets (Salix, Betula nana, Alnus fruticosa) grew in more protected and wetter places as well. Saalian ice wedges started to melt during this time, resulting in the formation of an initial thermokarst water body. The high percentage of semi-aquatic chironomids suggests that a peatland-pool initially existed at the site. A distinct decrease in semi-aquatic chironomid taxa and an increase in lacustrine ones point to a gradual pooling of water in the basin, which could in turn induce thermokarst and create a permanent pond during the subsequent period. The highest relative abundance of Chironomus and Procladius reflects unfrozen water remaining under the ice throughout the ice-covered period during the later stage of palaeo-lake development. The chironomid record points to three successive stages during the history of the lake: (1) a peatland pool; (2) a pond (i.e., shallower than the maximum ice-cover thickness); and (3) a shallow lake (i.e., deeper than the maximum ice-cover thickness). The trend of palaeo-lake development indicates that intensive thermokarst processes occurred in the region during the last Interglacial. Shrub tundra communities with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana dominated the vegetation during the interglacial optimum. The climate was moister and warmer than present. The results of this study suggest that quantitative chironomid-based temperature reconstructions from Arctic thermokarst ponds/lakes may be problematic due to other key environmental factors, such as prolonged periods of winter anoxia and local hydrological/geomorphological processes, controlling the chironomid assemblages.     

A critical evaluation of using bulk sediment instead of fine fraction in environmental marine studies, investigated on example of Rijeka harbor, Croatia

This work tested the preferential use of fine (<63 μm) or bulk sediment (<2 mm) in environmental research of marine sediments in the Eastern Adriatic. Fine fraction sediment containing silt and clay (<63 μm), predominating in the studied area, was examined to evaluate past and present anthropogenic inputs and to test our hypothesis that investigation of bulk sediment should be preferred. Following aqua regia digestion, chemical analyses of 58 elements were performed by ICP/OES, ICP-MS and cold vapor AAS, and statistical analysis was performed. The concentrations of the majority of the analyzed elements increased with age of the sediment, except for Ag and Sn, which had higher concentrations in recent sediments. The previous main sources of metal contamination in Rijeka harbor were now abandoned municipal-sewage outflow and oil refinery, and continuing harbor activities and antifouling paint use. All activities except of antifouling paint use have been decreasing significantly. Anomalies of selected elements were determined by the box-plot method. More anomalies were found in the bulk sediment than in the fine fraction. Results of Q-modality clustering and factor analysis in the fine fraction almost correlate with that applied on bulk sediments. Thus, it can be said that the differences between the element distribution in the bulk and fine fraction are not statistically significant. Our conclusion is that analysis of bulk marine sediment gives a better insight into the state of pollution and supports previous recommendations to use bulk sediment as a chosen media for environmental studies.     

Dynamics of the Kopački Rit (Croatia) wetland floodplain water regime

Kopa?ki Rit Nature Park is part of the Danube River natural floodplain and one of the last oases of wild life in the Danube River Basin. Due to its extraordinary value, it was inscribed on the list of Wetlands of International Importance in 1993. More than 2,000 species have been registered in this area, which consists of lakes, canals, grassland, marshland and forests. Even the number of investigations which have been performed on its biological and ecological features, hydrological and water resources characteristics, as a prerequisite for ecohydrological analyses, are still rather unknown in the scientific community. Mainly the Danube River and partly the River Drava cause flooding of Kopa?ki Rit and inundations enter the area from both the northern and southern parts. Results of hydrological and meteorological analysis show a decreasing trend of both mean and minimum, annual water levels in the Rivers Drava and Danube (respectively 1.8 and 1.38 cm/year). These reductions in water level can reduce the replenishment periods of Kopa?ki Rit Nature Park. In addition, a significant rise of mean annual air temperature and consequently water temperature (data 1988–2011) may be causing increasing evapotranspiration and loss of water within Kopa?ki Rit. But an encouraging counteracting finding is that, the results of frequency analysis show, even a discharge of 5-years’ return period on the River Danube inundates 70 % of the Danube floodplain and Kopa?ki Rit Nature Park.     

Silver and silver microparticles of the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary sediment of Fish Clay Højerup (Stevns Klint,Denmark)

We report the occurrence of micrometer-sized silver particles in the red (“impact” or “ejecta”) layer of the Fish Clay. These appear to be embedded into the biogenic/abiogenic calcite matrix. Energy dispersive X-ray analysis indicates that these microparticles are composed of pure silver (>99% of the total weight). Scanning electron microscopy images reveal irregular and predominantly rounded shapes with rugged surfaces. Numerous silver microparticles are spherical, and some exhibit dendritic textures. These microparticles were probably originated during the Chicxulub asteroid impact event, or immediately afterwards, and dispersed globally.     

Stratigraphic and lithologic characteristics of Pleistocene fluvial deposits in the Danube and Sava riparian area near Belgrade (Serbia)

The Quaternary sediments in the Danube and Sava riparian area near Belgrade have a considerable thickness. Several categories of deposits (fluvial-lacustrine, fluvial and aeolian) of Pliocene and Quaternary age have been identified. Their thickness, granulometric composition and paleontological features change depending on the distance from the recent Danube and Sava riverbeds. The Pleistocene fluvial deposits are underlain by sediments of the Late Miocene (Sarmatian and Pannonian) or the Plio-Pleistocene age, and are overlain by fluvial-palustrine deposits of the Pleistocene age and recent alluvial deposits. Pleistocene fluvial deposits that form a major part of the Quaternary sediments, have a great significance, since they are proved to be excellent collectors of ground water. Although these deposits are at lower altitudes in the area of Srem, they could be correlated with the high Danube and Morava terraces in Serbia and Drava in Croatia on the basis of their lithologic and paleontological features.     

Propagation of the Rossby waves on two dimensional rectangular grids

Summary A simple two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic linearized model of the atmosphere is used to investigate the behaviour of the quasi-geostrophic modes for five horizontal rectangular grids. Numerical expressions for frequencies of Rossby waves for all grids are evaluated. It was found that the B and C grids produce only negative frequencies as well as the continuous case. The D grid has negative and zero frequencies. Finally, it was found that the A and E grids produce positive frequencies and eastward moving Rossby waves.With 2 Figures     

The photoelectron spectra of some Tl-Sb sulphosalts

The results of X-ray induced photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) experiments on several phases of the ternary system Tl-Sb-S are reported. The binding energies of the inner S, Sb and Tl electrons increase with increasing quantities of Sb and decreasing amounts of Tl in these compounds. This is explained by the influences of the proportions of the bonded metals on the effective electron affinity of S. The higher proportions of the more electronegative element bonded to S cause the increase of its effective electron affinity. The results for Tl₂S (carlinite), Tl₃SbS₃, TlSbS₂ (weissbergite), TlAsS₂ (lorandite) and Sb₂S₃ (antimonite) can be interpreted in this way. The results for Tl₄S₃ suggest a predominantly covalent character of bonding for both Tl(III) and Tl(I), which are present in this sulfide. From comparison with Tl₃SbS₄ it could be supposed that Tl(III)-S bond has a more covalent character than Sb(V)-S bond. The results for Tl₃SbS₄ are in agreement with crystal structure data and the results of Moessbauer spectroscopy. For AsS (realgar) the binding energies of the inner electrons of As and S significantly increase, showing that the electrons in molecular orbitals are less strongly bonded to individual atoms, as compared to pure elements. The results for the amorphous TlSb₅S₈ (corresponding in composition to parapierrotite) suggest that in amorphous compound the Tl-S bonding is stronger and the coordination of Tl more regular than in a crystalline one.     

Tempos of Elderly Age and Geographical Concentration*

This paper presents a method to measure two types of tempos: 1) the tempo of elderly age concentration, the rate of change in the elderly proportion in a region; and 2) the tempo of elderly geographical concentration, the rate of change in a region's share of the national elderly population. The two measurements are applied to historical data for the United States. The results reveal that both tempos vary spatially and temporally. Relative tempos are also introduced to compare the indices between different age groups and regions.