Theoretical derivation of precipitation coverage probability from a set of heterogeneous point probabilities

Various meteorological studies require probabilistic modeling such as the flood, drought, and wet and dry spell occurrences. The most commonly employed approaches are based on the binomial probability distribution function (pdf), which is valid for homogeneous temporal and spatial probabilities. However, in practice, heterogeneous probabilities are very common, and in this case, the classical binomial pdf cannot be employed. This paper presents a rigorous probabilistic methodology for heterogeneous probabilities by considerations from the random field concept. The general form of the binomial pdf is derived and it is shown that for homogeneous probabilities it yields the classical binomial pdf exactly. The necessary analytical formulations are derived with the assumption that the meteorological occurrences at a set of sites or time periods (day, month, and year) are independent from each other. The probability statements derived in this paper are helpful in predicting the regional and temporal probable potential future meteorological occurrences. The application of the proposed methodology is presented for annual precipitation occurrences at six meteorology stations around Istanbul, Turkey.     

Hydrological considerations for dam siting in arid regions: a Saudi Arabian study

Abstract

In any dam siting study in arid regions, rainfall records, runoff measurements and their greatest magnitudes are very important. Unfortunately, the data are scarce and, therefore, empirical approaches and charts obtained from similar regions in other parts of the world are necessary for complete applications. The lack of observed data presents the major problem for runoff modelling in arid regions. These regions have characteristically high rainfall intensity and consequent flash floods with large amounts of sediments. Occurrence of rainfall is sporadic, both temporally and spatially, which makes the interpretation of the rainfall-runoff relationship quite difficult. Flood estimations play a significant role in dam siting from the point of view of water availability. This paper presents the basic calculations of floods and sediment amounts that are necessary in dam siting and construction in an arid area by considering the southwestern part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.     

Rainfall distribution function for Libya and rainfall prediction

Abstract

Monthly rainfall amounts are distributed according to different frequency distribution functions in different parts of the world. However, in extremely arid regions gamma probability distribution functions are most often found to fit the existing data well. Libyan monthly rainfall distributions are found to abide by gamma probability distribution function which is confirmed on the basis of chi-square tests. Almost all the rainfall sequences recorded for at least the last 20 years in Libya are investigated statistically and gamma distribution parameters are calculated at existing stations. The shape and scale parameters are then regionalized and hence it becomes possible to find the parameter values at any desired location within the study area and then to generate synthetic sequences according to the gamma distribution. Predictions of 10, 25, 50 and 100 mm rainfall amounts are achieved by this probability function.     

An application of network design procedures for redesigning Kizilirmak River basin raingauge network,Turkey

ABSTRACT

Recently developed rainfall network design techniques are discussed and compared. Present day hydrological studies require high levels of accuracy from collected data. Also, scientists need to know the degree of accuracy of the information they use. The existing rainfall network in the Kizilirmak basin must be redesigned in order to meet the required level of accuracy preset by rainfall data users. The three following techniques were applied: optimum interpolation procedure which is a flexible method; variance of mean areal rainfall; and the analysis of variance. The existing network of 52 gauges is redesigned so that the network will have an average root mean square error (rmse) of ? 32 mm and the percentage of the area with rmse > 36 mm is limited to 10%. It is found that the proposed criteria are satisfied by a network of 53 gauges of which eight were newly established and seven of the existing ones removed.     

Strategic groundwater resources planning in arid regions

A strategic approach is presented for future groundwater reservoir planning in arid regions where the evaluation of groundwater resources is restricted by scarcity of rainfall, data paucity, restrictive and unrepresentative methodologies, weak economies, almost nonexisting management and optimization programs, frequent groundwater quality variables along short distances, etc. This paper explains the necessary steps in preparing an effective strategic planning program that is expected to provide all the necessary data for identifying alternative solution scenarios especially in arid regions. It is shown on the basis of available scarce data that the risk model of these factors appears as the logarithmic normal probability distribution. The basic decision variables in groundwater storage and recharge planning are furnished with application to Wadi Fatimah in the western central part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia along the Red Sea coast. The approach given in this paper provides a basic example for future groundwater reservoir strategic use and management studies in the Kingdom in particular and in any part of the arid regions of the world, in general.     

Deep resistivity structure of the Dikili-Bergama region, west Anatolia, revealed by two- dimensional inversion of vertical electrical sounding data

Within the framework of the National Marine Geological and Geophysical Program, we re‐examined deep vertical electrical sounding (VES) data. The data, measured in 1968 by the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA) of Turkey with the aim of exploring the deep resistivity structure of the Dikili–Bergama region, focus on the geothermal potential. The geoelectrical resistivity survey was conducted using a Schlumberger array with a maximum electrode half‐spacing of 4.5 km. The two‐dimensional (2D) inversion was utilized to interpret the VES data that were collected along 15‐ to 30‐km profiles. The 2D resistivity–depth cross‐sections obtained show very low resistivity values near the Dikili and Kaynarca hot springs. The 2D inversion results also indicate the presence of fault zones striking nearly N–S and E–W, and fault‐bounded graben‐horst structures that show promising potential for geothermal field resources. The 2D gravity model, which is in good agreement with the density variation of the region, supports the resistivity structure revealed by 2D inversion. The lithology information obtained from the borehole near Kaynarca also confirms the results of the resistivity interpretation and the density model.     

The South Marmara Fault

We use about 800 km of multichannel exploration seismic reflection profiles of the seventies as well as the results of three drill holes that penetrated the sedimentary cover down to the Upper Cretaceous basement to describe a continuous gently curvilinear, south-concave zone of deformation about 10 km wide that extended over the whole southern shelf of the Sea of Marmara from the Gulf of Gemlik to the Dardanelles Straits in Lower Pliocene time, about 4 Ma. We call this zone of deformation the South Marmara Fault (SMF) system and propose that the SMF was then a branch of the dextral North Anatolian Fault. This branch passed to the north of the Marmara Island Eocene block and thus had a south-facing concavity. This curvature resulted in a significant component of shortening in the western part of the fault. The SMF was deactivated at the end of Lower Pliocene, about 3.5 Ma, except for its easternmost branch between the Gulf of Gemlik and ?mral? Island where about 5 mm/year of dextral motion is still occurring today.     

Layer-parallel shortening and related structures in zones undergoing active regional horizontal extension

Folds and thrust faults formed by layer-parallel shortening coaxial with extensional structures such as normal dip-slip faults and ductile necking structures with orthorhombic fabric symmetry are usual, but little-recognised structures formed within normal dip-slip shear zones bounding rifts. They are generated because of the shear distribution in a zone of progressive deformation and may be later extended and disrupted depending on which part of the strain ellipsoid they may be located. We here describe folds and thrust faults from the southern margin of the Ala?ehir Rift in western Turkey as an opportunity to discuss the properties of pure extension–related structures formed by layer-parallel shortening. Such structures are more commonly generated during the early stages of rifting, when deformation rates are slow and the shear zones broader than those forming later in the life of a rift when strain rates are usually higher. Such structures have commonly been mistaken for witnesses documenting regional episodes of shortening rather than as integral parts of the extensional structures forming rifts. Not all layer-parallel shortening-related structures therefore indicate regional shortening. We plead that hasty statements concerning the meaning of geological structures at all scales be avoided before a thorough understanding of bulk strains that have affected a region are properly understood.