Active tectonic and palaeoseismological features of the western section of Mustafakemalpaşa Fault; Bursa,NW Anatolia

The Mustafakemalpa?a Fault (MF), located among Manyas, Ulubat and Orhaneli faults, is a right lateral strike-slip and 47 km in length. The MF begins with a pressure ridge at the west and exhibits complex jog terminations at east ends in restraining left stepovers. The western section of the fault bounds Miocene and Quaternary units and continues towards ?lyasç?lar. The central segment of the fault, starts with approximately 750-m leftward stepover, exhibits a sinusoidal geometry between Kapakl?oluk and Kabulbaba. In this section, MF traverses mountainous terrain and cuts Ophiolite, Jurassic limestones and Miocene detritals, forming dextral faulting features and gaining reverse component. The eastern section exhibits left stepping en-echelon pattern and consists 2.5-km offset on the Orhaneli River. In this study, palaeoseismological findings related to the Holocene activity and active tectonic properties of the MF are presented. The trenches exposed mismatched stratigraphy, demonstrating evidence of events across the fault. We identified three events (before BC 2190, later AD 1425 and 1850) that have occurred during the past 4000 years. We suggest a long non-characteristic recurrence interval and ~0.7 mm/y slip-rate for MF, based on trench data and offset of the Late Pliocene drainage of Orhaneli River.     

Disentangling intangible social–ecological systems

Contemporary environmental challenges call for new research approaches that include the human dimension when studying the natural environment. In spite of the recent development of several conceptual frameworks integrating human society with nature, there has been less methodological and theoretical progress on how to quantitatively study such social–ecological interdependencies. We propose a novel theoretical framework for addressing this gap that partly builds on the rapidly growing interdisciplinary research on complex networks. The framework makes it possible to unpack, define and formalize ways in which societies and nature are interdependent, and to empirically link this to specific governance challenges and opportunities using a range of theories from both the social and natural sciences in an integrated way. At the core of the framework is a set of basic building blocks (motifs) that each represents a simplified but non-trivial social–ecological systems (SES) consisting of two social actors and two ecological resources. The set represents all possible patterns of interdependency in a SES. Each unique motif is characterized in terms of social and ecological connectivity, resource sharing, and resource substitutability. By aligning theoretical insights related to the management of common-pool resources, metapopulation dynamics, and the problem of fit in SES with the set of motifs, we demonstrate the multi-theoretical ability of the framework in a case study of a rural agricultural landscape in southern Madagascar. Several mechanisms explaining the inhabitants’ demonstrated ability to preserve their scattered forest patches in spite of strong pressures on land and forest resources are presented.     

Block bootstrap for Mann–Kendall trend test of serially dependent data

Mann–Kendall (MK) test for trend detection must be modified when the data are serially correlated, to prevent the detection of false trends. Various approaches are developed for this purpose, such as prewhitening, trend‐free prewhitening, variance correction and block bootstrap. Each method has its own Type I and Type II errors. In this study, the errors of block bootstrapping MK test are estimated by a simulation study and compared with other methods. Optimal block length that minimizes the Type I error is determined as function of sample size and autocorrelation coefficient. It is shown that the power of block bootstrapping MK test is comparable with those of other modified MK tests. These tests are applied to some annual streamflow series with trend recorded in Turkish rivers, and their powers are compared. A modified form of the trend‐free prewhitening procedure is proposed that has a smaller Type I error. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulated climate conditions in Europe during the Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial

Kjellström, E., Brandefelt, J., Näslund, J.‐O., Smith, B., Strandberg, G., Voelker, A. H. L. & Wohlfarth, B. 2010: Simulated climate conditions in Europe during the Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00143.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. State‐of‐the‐art climate models were used to simulate climate conditions in Europe during Greenland Stadial (GS) 12 at 44 ka BP. The models employed for these simulations were: (i) a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model (AOGCM), and (ii) a regional atmospheric climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale results from the global model for a more detailed investigation of European climate conditions. The vegetation was simulated off‐line by a dynamic vegetation model forced by the climate from the RCM. The resulting vegetation was then compared with the a priori vegetation used in the first simulation. In a subsequent step, the RCM was rerun to yield a new climate more consistent with the simulated vegetation. Forcing conditions included orbital forcing, land–sea distribution, ice‐sheet configuration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations representative for 44 ka BP. The results show a cold climate on the global scale, with global annual mean surface temperatures 5 °C colder than the modern climate. This is still significantly warmer than temperatures derived from the same model system for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Regional, northern European climate is much colder than today, but still significantly warmer than during the LGM. Comparisons between the simulated climate and proxy‐based sea‐surface temperature reconstructions show that the results are in broad agreement, albeit with a possible cold bias in parts of the North Atlantic in summer. Given a prescribed restricted Marine Isotope Stage 3 ice‐sheet configuration, with large ice‐free regions in Sweden and Finland, the AOGCM and RCM model simulations produce a cold and dry climate in line with the restricted ice‐sheet configuration during GS 12. The simulated temperature climate, with prescribed ice‐free conditions in south‐central Fennoscandia, is favourable for the development of permafrost, but does not allow local ice‐sheet formation as all snow melts during summer.     

Mineralogy,chemistry, and irradiation record of Neuschwanstein (EL6) chondrite

Abstract– We present a detailed study of mineralogy, chemistry, and noble gases of the Neuschwanstein (EL6) chondrite that fell in 2002 in southern Germany. The meteorite has an unbrecciated texture and exhibits only minor shock features. Secondary weathering products are marginal. Neuschwanstein is an EL6 chondrite with heterogeneously distributed metal and sulfide grains. In terms of bulk chemistry, it has very high Fe concentrations, and siderophile and halogen element abundances higher than typical EL chondrites. However, like other ELs of higher petrologic type, it has low moderately volatile element abundances, e.g., Mn and Zn. We interpret these as indicators for loss of sulfide, probably through mobilization of ferroan alabandite and a Zn‐bearing sulfide, potentially sphalerite, during metamorphism. Trapped noble gases are dominated by a subsolar component with high Ar concentrations and are typical for EL chondrites. The shielding parameters indicate a small meteoroid (<20 cm radius) with an exposure age of approximately 47 Ma, which is among the highest for enstatite chondrites.     

Late Quaternary palaeoenvironment of northern Guatemala: evidence from deep drill cores and seismic stratigraphy of Lake Petén Itzá

Long sediment cores were collected in spring 2006 from Lake Petén Itzá, northern Guatemala, in water depths ranging from 30 to 150 m, as part of an International Continental Scientific Drilling Program project. The sediment records from deep water consist mainly of alternating clay, gypsum and carbonate units and, in at least two drill sites, extend back >200 kyr. Most of the lithostratigraphic units are traceable throughout the basin along seismic reflections that serve as seismic stratigraphic boundaries and suggest that the lithostratigraphy can be used to infer regional palaeoenvironmental changes. A revised seismic stratigraphy was established on the basis of integrated lithological and seismic reflection data from the basin. From ca 200 to ca 85 ka, sediments are dominated by carbonate‐clay silt, often interbedded with sandy turbidites, indicating a sediment regime dominated by detrital sedimentation in a relatively humid climate. At ca 85 ka, an exposure horizon consisting of gravels, coarse sand and terrestrial gastropods marks a lake lowstand or partial basin desiccation, indicating dry climate conditions. From ca 85 to ca 48 ka, transgressive carbonate‐clay sediments, overlain by deep‐water clays, suggest a lake level rise and subsequent stabilization at high stage. From ca 48 ka to present, the lithology is characterized by alternating clay and gypsum units. Gypsum deposition correlates with Heinrich Events (i.e. dry climate), whereas clay units coincide with more humid interstadials.     

An Experimental and Theoretical Approach on the Modeling of Sliding Response of Rock Wedges under Dynamic Loading

The stability of rock slopes under dynamic loading in mining and civil engineering depends upon the slope geometry, mechanical properties of rock mass and discontinuities, and the characteristics of dynamic loads with time. The wedge failure is one of the common forms of slope failures. The authors presented some stability conditions for rock wedges under dynamic loading and they confirmed their validity through the laboratory experimental studies in a previous paper in 2000, which is often quoted by others to validate their softwares, including some commercial software. In this study, the authors investigate the sliding responses of rock wedges under dynamic loads rather than the initiation of wedge sliding. First, some laboratory model tests are described. On the basis of these model tests on rock wedges, the theoretical model proposed previously is extended to compute the sliding responses of rock wedges in time domain. The proposed theoretical model is applied to simulate the sliding responses of rock wedge model tests and its validity is discussed. In the final part, the method proposed is applied to actual wedge failures observed in 1995 Dinar earthquake and 2005 Pakistan–Kashmir earthquake, and the results are discussed.     

Daily suspended sediment estimation using neuro-wavelet models

This paper proposes the application of neuro-wavelet technique for modeling daily suspended sediment–discharge relationship. The neuro-wavelet models are obtained by combining two methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) and discrete wavelet transform. The accuracy of the neuro-wavelet and the ANN models is compared with each other in suspended sediment load estimation. The daily streamflow and suspended sediment data from two stations on Tongue River in Montana are used as case studies. The comparison results reveal that the suggested model could increase the estimation accuracy.