Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world

Agriculture appears to be one of the human activities most vulnerable to climatic changes due to its large dependence on environmental conditions. However, the diversity of Brazilian environmental conditions could be of great advantage to adapting this sector to new climatic conditions, which should be assessed as in this study on shifting Arabica coffee cultivation to the extreme south of the country. The methodology applied is the same the one used to define climatic risks in current productive regions of Brazil and their vulnerability to climatic change predicted by IPCC reports. The basic climatic parameters applied were frost probability and annual average temperature, since annual water deficit did not prove to be a restricting factor for Arabica coffee cultivation in the study area. The climatic conditions suitable for coffee production are: annual average temperature between 18??C and 22??C, annual water deficit less than 100?mm and frost probability (risk of lowest annual temperature less than 1??C) less than 25%. An area is said to have ??low climatic risks?? for coffee production when these three climatic conditions are met. Current climatic conditions were used and simulations of four temperature increases between 1??C and 4??C were also performed. The results indicated a substantial increase in the size of low climatic risks areas for the production of Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil, mainly for mean temperature increases of 3??C in the study area in relation to present conditions. Increases of 2??C and 4??C were also favorable, but not as good as those obtained for 3??C. It should be underscored that areas with low climatic risks will be able to be found mainly in the extreme south of the study region, the border with Uruguay and North of Argentina.     

Melt inclusion constraints on petrogenesis of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption,Iceland

The 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption, on the Bárðarbunga volcanic system in central Iceland, was one of the best-monitored basaltic fissure eruptions that has ever occurred, and presents a unique opportunity to link petrological and geochemical data with geophysical observations during a major rifting episode. We present major and trace element analyses of melt inclusions and matrix glasses from a suite of ten samples collected over the course of the Holuhraun eruption. The diversity of trace element ratios such as La/Yb in Holuhraun melt inclusions reveals that the magma evolved via concurrent mixing and crystallization of diverse primary melts in the mid-crust. Using olivine–plagioclase–augite–melt (OPAM) barometry, we calculate that the Holuhraun carrier melt equilibrated at 2.1?±?0.7 kbar (7.5?±?2.5 km), which is in agreement with the depths of earthquakes (6?±?1 km) between Bárðarbunga central volcano and the eruption site in the days preceding eruption onset. Using the same approach, melt inclusions equilibrated at pressures between 0.5 and 8.0 kbar, with the most probable pressure being 3.2 kbar. Diffusion chronometry reveals minimum residence timescales of 1–12 days for melt inclusion-bearing macrocrysts in the Holuhraun carrier melt. By combining timescales of diffusive dehydration of melt inclusions with the calculated pressure of H₂O saturation for the Holuhraun magma, we calculate indicative magma ascent rates of 0.12–0.29 m s^?1. Our petrological and geochemical data are consistent with lateral magma transport from Bárðarbunga volcano to the eruption site in a shallow- to mid-crustal dyke, as has been suggested on the basis of seismic and geodetic datasets. This result is a significant step forward in reconciling petrological and geophysical interpretations of magma transport during volcano-tectonic episodes, and provides a critical framework for the interpretation of premonitory seismic and geodetic data in volcanically active regions.     

Geochronological (U–Pb,U–Th–total Pb,Sm–Nd) and geochemical (REE, <Superscript>87</Superscript>Sr/<Superscript>86</Superscript>Sr, δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O, δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C) tracing of intraplate tectonism and associated fluid flow in the Warburton Basin,Australia

The Warburton Basin of central Australia has experienced a complex tectonic and fluid-flow history, resulting in the formation of various authigenic minerals. Geochemical and geochronological analyses were undertaken on vein carbonates from core samples of clastic sediments. Results were then integrated with zircon U–Pb dating and uraninite U–Th–total Pb dating from the underlying granite. Stable and radiogenic isotopes (δ¹⁸O, Sr and εNd), as well as trace element data of carbonate veins indicate that >200 °C basinal fluids of evolved meteoric origin circulated through the Warburton Basin. Almost coincidental ages of these carbonates (Sm–Nd; 432 ± 12 Ma) with primary zircon (421 ± 3.8 Ma) and uraninite (407 ± 16 Ma) ages from the granitic intrusion point towards a substantial period of active tectonism and an elevated thermal regime during the mid Silurian. We hypothesise that such a thermal regime may have resulted from extensional tectonism and concomitant magmatic activity following regional orogenesis. This study shows that the combined application of geochemical and geochronological analyses of both primary and secondary species may constrain the timing of tectonomagmatic events and associated fluid flow in intraplate sedimentary basins. Furthermore, this work suggests that the Sm–Nd-isotopic system is surprisingly robust and can record geologically meaningful age data from hydrothermal mineral species.     

Spatial modelling of soil erosion potential in a mountainous watershed of South-eastern Serbia

This study employed genetic adaptive neural networks in the classification of high-resolution satellite images from which data related to surface conditions in mountainous areas of Taiwan were derived. Principal component analysis was then used to extract factors associated with the threat of natural disaster, and logistic regression was used to compute the probability of disaster occurrence. Through field surveys, interviews with district officials and a review of relevant literature, the probability of a sediment disaster was estimated as well as the vulnerability of the villages concerned and the degree to which these villages were prepared, to construct a risk evaluation model. A geographic information system was used to plot regional risk maps as a means to enhance the safety of residents in the study area. The risk assessment model can be used by authorities to make provisions for high-risk areas, to reduce the number of casualties and social costs of sediment disasters.     

The IAU 2009 system of astronomical constants: the report of the IAU working group on numerical standards for Fundamental Astronomy

In the 2006?C2009 triennium, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) Working Group on Numerical Standards for Fundamental Astronomy determined a list of Current Best Estimates (CBEs). The IAU 2009 Resolution B2 adopted these CBEs as the IAU (2009) System of Astronomical Constants. Additional work continues to define the process of updating the CBEs and creating a standard electronic document.     

The monitoring of slow-moving landslides and assessment of stabilisation measures using an optical–mechanical crack gauge

It is possible to monitor slow-moving landslides and assess landslide stabilisation measures over protracted periods using an optical–mechanical crack gauge called a TM-71. This technical note outlines the theoretical background to the gauge and illustrates its practical application through a number of case studies. These studies are drawn from a range of landslide types and stabilisation measures. In terms of monitoring slow-moving landslides, three studies of deep-seated deformations are presented. The Taukliman coastal landslide on the Black Sea Coast is characterised by vertical and horizontal displacements of up to 0.2?mm?year^?1 and sudden earthquake-induced dilations of up to 6?mm. The Parohy ridge spreading landslide in the Malá Fatra Mountains is characterised by gravitationally induced vertical displacements of 0.7?mm?year^?1. The slope deformation that formed Cyrilka Cave in the Beskydy Mountains is characterised by very slow sinistral strike–slip movements of 0.8?mm?year^?1. In terms of assessing landslide stabilisation measures, two studies are presented from Orava Castle in Slovakia and Tetín in the Czech Republic. The data recorded at these sites demonstrate that the constructed stabilisation measures have successfully alleviated the potential landslide hazard in both localities. These case studies clearly demonstrate that the gauge represents an important tool with which to monitor slow-moving landslides and assess landslide stabilisation measures. It is able to provide a precise three-dimensional record of deformation, withstand harsh environmental conditions, and record reliable data over protracted periods.     

Determining optimum tilt angles of solar surfaces in Sakarya,Turkey

Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990 to 2001–2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991–2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981–1990, 1991–2000, and 2001–2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong spatiotemporal fluctuations in explanatory power of the different indices over all German counties and the three time periods. Over the 30 years, yield deviations were increasingly well correlated with heat and drought-related indices, with the number of days with maximum temperature above 25 °C during anthesis showing a sharp increase in explanatory power over entire Germany in the final 2001–2010 period.     

Source Parameters of Weak Crustal Earthquakes of the Vrancea Region from Short-period Waveform Inversion

High-frequency records of nine low magnitude shallow earthquakes of the Vrancea (Romania) seismic region are inverted for the seismic moment tensor (MT). An approach is suggested regarding how to obtain at least a rough estimate of the MT when the information on the structure of the crust is poor. Here simple 1-D layered models are used in the Greens function synthesis despite the fact that the structure of the region is undoubtedly very complex. Different 1-D models were used for different source-station paths to approximate lateral variations. Record of a station located on a ray path which crosses a structure differing substantially from a 1-D model may however bias the retrieved MT essentially. Therefore, we did not collectively process all records, but subsets of stations separately. We check the consistency of the MTs resulting from these individual bootstrap solutions, and reject those which differ substantially, assuming that this is due to the oversimplification of the forward modeling. Thereafter, the averaged moment tensor yielded by the consistent subsets is accepted. Moreover, the distribution of the T, N and P axes from the moment tensors used for averaging provides a rough estimate of their reliability.Following this simplistic procedure, we found seven acceptably constrained solutions among nine events processed. Their P axes are compared with the general trend of the stress in the area: three comply with it, the others should be attributed to the complex stress field active in the region.Acknowledgment This research has been made possible by MURST (40% and 60%), by UNESCO-IGCP project 414 Realistic Modelling of Seismic Input for Megacities and Large Urban Areas and NATO SfP 972266. Partial support issued from the Grant Agency of Czech Rep. (Grant 205/02/0383) and from the National Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation of Romania (Grant 6185 GR/2000).     

The Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Baltic Sea Ice

A new parametrization for the surface energy balance of urban areas is presented. It is shown that this new method can represent some of the important urban phenomena, such as an urban heat island and the occurrence of a near-neutral nocturnal boundary layer with associated positive turbulent heat fluxes, unlike the traditional method for representing urban areas within operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The basis of the new parametrization is simple and can be applied easily within an operational NWP model. Also, it has no additional computational expense compared to the traditional scheme and is hence applicable for operational forecasting requirements. The results show that the errors for London within the Met Office operational mesoscale model have been significantly reduced since the new scheme was introduced. The bias and root-mean-square (rms) errors have been approximately halved, with the rms error now similar to the model as a whole. The results also show that a seasonal cycle still exists in the model errors, but it is suggested that this may be caused by anthropogenic heat sources that are neglected in the urban scheme.The British Crowns right to retain a non-exclusive royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.