Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks

The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems’ growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid ‘oil boom’-development—i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events—their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.     

Nitrous oxide emissions from gasohol, ethanol and CNG light duty vehicles

A sample of 21 light duty vehicles powered by Otto cycle engines were tested on a chassis dynamometer to measure the exhaust emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O). The tests were performed at the Vehicle Emission Laboratory of CETESB (Environmental Company of the State of Sao Paulo) using the US-FTP-75 (Federal Test Procedure) driving cycle. The sample tested included passenger cars running on three types of fuels used in Brazil: gasohol, ethanol and CNG. The measurement of N₂O was made using two methods: Non Dispersive InfraRed (NDIR) analyzer and Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy (FTIR). Measurements of regulated pollutants were also made in order to establish correlations between N₂O and NO_x. The average N₂O emission factors obtained by the NDIR method was 78?±?41?mg.km^?1 for vehicles running with gasohol, 73?±?45?mg.km^?1 for ethanol vehicles and 171?±?69?mg.km^?1 for CNG vehicles. Seventeen results using the FTIR method were also obtained. For gasohol vehicles the results showed a good agreement between the two methods, with an average emission factor of 68?±?41?mg.km^?1. The FTIR measurement results of N₂O for ethanol and CNG vehicles were much lower than those obtained by the NDIR method. The emission factors were 17?±?10?mg.km^?1 and 33?±?17?mg.km^?1, respectively, possibly because of the interference of water vapor (present at a higher concentration in the exhaust gases of these vehicles) on measurements by the NDIR method.     

Scaling laws for radiating fluids: the pillar of laboratory astrophysics

In this paper, we derive the scaling laws for different radiating fluids. The studied regimes are relevant for both laboratory astrophysics and High Energy Density Physics. Using Lie groups theory, we obtain scaling laws, the similarity properties and the number of free parameters to rescale experiments.     

The Wave-Front Correction System for the Sunrise Balloon-Borne Solar Observatory

This paper describes the wave-front correction system developed for the Sunrise balloon telescope, and it provides information about its in-flight performance. For the correction of low-order aberrations, a Correlating Wave-Front Sensor (CWS) was used. It consisted of a six-element Shack??C?Hartmann wave-front sensor (WFS), a fast tip-tilt mirror for the compensation of image motion, and an active telescope secondary mirror for focus correction. The CWS delivered a stabilized image with a precision of 0.04?arcsec (rms), whenever the coarse pointing was better than ???45?arcsec peak-to-peak. The automatic focus adjustment maintained a focus stability of 0.01?waves in the focal plane of the CWS. During the 5.5?day flight, good image quality and stability were achieved during 33?hours, containing 45?sequences, which lasted between 10 and 45?min.     

The Effects of the Earth’s Curvature on Gravity and Geoid Calculations

While it is obvious that large-scale gravity studies should account for the sphericity of the Earth, each case should be examined. If a geometry model is very large for the 3D-gravity calculation, it cannot be correctly defined in Cartesian coordinates. Because of the Earth’s curvature it is necessary to use spherical coordinates, the importance of which is shown in this paper. The calculation of the gravity for a cylinder reveals, 1 m above the center of the cylinder, a relative difference of 13% between the models with Cartesian and spherical coordinates.     

Joint inversion of teleseismic P waveforms and surface-wave group velocities from ambient seismic noise in the Bohemian Massif

Joint inversion of teleseismic P-waveforms and local group velocities of surface waves retrieved from ambient seismic noise has been performed to model velocity structure of the crust and uppermost mantle of the Bohemian Massif. We analysed P-waveforms of 381 teleseismic earthquakes recorded at 54 broadband seismic stations located on the territory of the Czech Republic and in its close surroundings. Group velocities of Rayleigh and Love surface waves were obtained by cross-correlating long-term recordings of seismic noise. The basis for waveform inversion is the well-known methodology of P-to-S receiver functions constructed from converted phases. Due to instabilities in direct inversion of receiver functions caused by the necessity of applying deconvolution, we propose an alternative formulation to fit observed and calculated radial components of P waveforms. The joint inversion is transformed into a search for the minimum of the cost function defined as a weighted sum of waveform and group velocity misfits. With the use of the robust stochastic optimizer (Differential Evolution Algorithm), neither derivatives nor a starting model are needed. The task was solved for 1D layered isotropic models of the crust and the uppermost mantle. We have performed a sequence of inversions with models containing one, two, three and four layers above a half-space. By using statistical criteria (F-test) we were able to select the simplest velocity models satisfying data and representing local geological structures. Complex crustal models are typical for stations located close to boundaries of major tectonic units. The relatively low average P to S wave-velocity ratio is in agreement with the generally accepted view that the BM crust is predominantly felsic.     

A geochemical approach to constraining the formation of glassy fallout debris from nuclear tests

Glassy nuclear fallout debris from near-surface nuclear tests is fundamentally reprocessed earth material. A geochemical approach to analysis of glassy fallout is uniquely suited to determine the means of reprocessing and shed light on the mechanisms of fallout formation. An improved understanding of fallout formation is of interest both for its potential to guide post-detonation nuclear forensic investigations and in the context of possible affinities between glassy debris and other glasses generated by high-energy natural events, such as meteorite impacts and lightning strikes. This study presents a large major-element compositional dataset for glasses within aerodynamic fallout from the Trinity nuclear test (“trinitite”) and a geochemically based analysis of the glass compositional trends. Silica-rich and alkali-rich trinitite glasses show compositions and textures consistent with formation through melting of individual mineral grains—quartz and alkali feldspar, respectively—from the test-site sediment. The volumetrically dominant glass phase—called the CaMgFe glass—shows extreme major-element compositional variability. Compositional trends in the CaMgFe glass are most consistent with formation through volatility-controlled condensation from compositionally heterogeneous plasma. Radioactivity occurs only in CaMgFe glass, indicating that co-condensation of evaporated bulk ground material and trace device material was the main mechanism of radioisotope incorporation into trinitite. CaMgFe trinitite glasses overlap compositionally with basalts, rhyolites, fulgurites, tektites, and microtektites but display greater compositional diversity than all of these naturally formed glasses. Indeed, the most refractory CaMgFe glasses compositionally resemble early solar system condensates—specifically, CAIs.     

Occurrence and use of mineral and thermal waters in Poland

Mineral and thermal waters are defined according to Polish geological and mining law. Their occurrence in particular hydrogeological provinces of the country is characterized. Besides their use in balneotherapeutics, their role as a heat carrier and source of chemical raw materials is stressed. Topics mentioned requiring further research are: the origin of saline formation waters and the origin of CO₂ in carbonated waters.     

Effects of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heavy snowfall events in the Pyrenees

The intensity and frequency of heavy snowfall events in the Pyrenees were simulated using data from the HIRHAM regional climate model for a control period (1960?C1990) and two greenhouse emission scenarios (SRES B2 and A2) for the end of the twenty-first century (2070?C2100). Comparisons between future and control simulations enabled a quantification of the expected change in the intensity and frequency of these events at elevations of 1,000, 1,500, 2,000 and 2,500?m a.s.l. The projected changes in heavy snowfall depended largely on the elevation and the greenhouse gas emission scenario considered. At 1,000?m a.s.l., a marked decrease in the frequency and intensity of heavy snowfall events was projected with the B2 and A2 scenarios. At 1,500?m a.s.l., a decrease in the frequency and intensity is only expected under the higher greenhouse gas emission scenario (A2). Above 2,000?m a.s.l., no change or heavier snowfalls are expected under both emission scenarios. Large spatial variability in the impacts of climate change on heavy snowfall events was found across the study area.     

Combining climate with other influential factors for modelling the impact of climate change on species distribution

We tested two approaches to forecast species distributions while balancing the impact of climate change against the inertia promoted by other influential factors that have been forecast as not changing. Given that mountain species are presumed to be more at risk due to climate warming, we selected an amphibian, a reptile, a bird, and a mammal species present in the Spanish mountains, to model their distributional response to climate change during this century. The climatic forecasts were made according to the general circulation models CGCM2 and ECHAM4 and to the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. We modelled the response of the species to spatial, topographic, human, and climatic variables separately. In our first approach, we compared each of these single-factor models using the Akaike Information Criterion, and produced a combined model weighting each factor (spatial, topographic, human, and climatic) according to Akaike weights. This procedure overestimated the best model, and the other factors were neglected in the combined model output. In our second approach, we produced a combined model using stepwise selection of the variables previously selected within each factor. In this way every factor was effectively represented in the combined explanatory model of the distributional response of the species to environmental conditions. This enabled the construction of models that combined climate with the other explanatory factors, to be later extrapolated to the future by replacing current climatic and human values with those expected from each emission and socio-economic scenario, while preserving spatial and topographic variables in the model.