Why and when it is useful to publish and share inconclusive results and failures: reply to “Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology”*

We thank van Emmerik et al. for their discussion of our opinion paper. We do not fully agree that publication of negative results will be very effective in promoting experimental hydrology. Instead, we think that experimental hydrology is considered to be more risky than modelling studies because of difficulties in publishing inconclusive results and the potential for failure.     

Analysis of nonlinear associations between prenatal methylmercury exposure from fish consumption and neurodevelopmental outcomes in the Seychelles Main Cohort at 17 years

The Seychelles Child Development Study has been examining the relationship between prenatal methylmercury (MeHg) exposure from consuming fish during pregnancy and child development. This study re-analyzes seven outcomes in the 17 year Main Cohort data to determine if there are nonlinear or non-homogeneous (subgroup) associations that were not identified in the linear analysis. We adopted two statistical approaches. First, we carried out an additive nonlinear analysis assuming homogeneous prenatal MeHg-outcome relationships to explore overall associations. Second, we applied the regression tree to the Woodcock–Johnson Calculation subtest (it was significantly associated in earlier analyses) and identified 4 clusters based on covariates. Then we used additive models to assess the prenatal MeHg association in each of the four clusters for all seven outcomes. This approach assumes nonlinear associations in each cluster and non-homogeneous associations between clusters. The additive nonlinear analysis yielded prenatal MeHg curves similar to the linear analysis. For the regression tree analysis, the curves relating prenatal MeHg to outcomes between the 4 clusters differed and some crossed at higher prenatal MeHg levels, suggesting non-homogeneity in the upper range of exposure. Additionally, some of the curves suggested a possible non-linear relationship within the range of exposure we studied. This non-linear analysis supports the findings from the linear analysis. It shows little evidence to support an adverse association of prenatal MeHg exposure through maternal consumption of fish contaminated with natural background levels. However, the tree analysis suggests that the prenatal exposure/outcome relationship may not be homogeneous across all individuals and that some subpopulations may have an adverse association in the upper range of the exposures studied. More robust data in the higher levels of exposure in this cohort are needed to confirm this finding.     

High-resolution optical dating of Late Holocene storm surge deposits – a showcase from Schokland (Noordoostpolder,the Netherlands)

Storm surges have a major impact on land use and human habitation in coastal regions. Our knowledge of this impact can be improved by correlating long-term historical storm records with sedimentary evidence of storm surges, but so far few studies have applied such an approach. Here we apply, for the first time, state-of-the-art optically stimulating luminescence (OSL) methods to obtain high-resolution age information on a sequence of Late Holocene storm surge deposits. By combining this chronological framework of storm surges with other reconstruction methods, we investigate the storm surge impact on the former island Schokland, located in a former inlet of the North Sea (central Netherlands).During the Late Holocene, Schokland transformed from a peat area that gradually inundated (~800 CE) via an island in a marginal marine environment (~1600 CE) to a land-locked island in the reclaimed Province of Flevoland (1942 CE). These transitions are recorded in the sediment archive of the island, consisting of silty clay with sandy intervals deposited during storm surges. A series of ten quartz OSL ages, obtained using best-practice methods to deal with incomplete resetting of the OSL signal and dose rate heterogeneity, reveal two periods of storm surge deposition, around 1600 CE and between 1742 and 1822 CE. Historical sources indicate that major storm surges hit Schokland during these periods. Laboratory analyses (thermogravimetry, grain-size, foraminifera, bivalves and ostracods) corroborates the existence of the two sets of storm surge deposits within the clay sequence. Our study sets a benchmark for obtaining robust depositional age constraints from storm surge sediments, and demonstrates the great potential of modern OSL methods to contribute to improved assessment of storm surge risk. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does Pumping Volume Affect the Concentration of Micropollutants in Groundwater Samples?

Information on concentrations of micropollutants (such as pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and industrial chemicals) in most highly dynamic riverbank filtration (RBF) systems is lacking, in contrast to data on standard chemical parameters. Sampling protocols have thus far been based on the stabilization of standard chemical parameters in relatively pristine environments. To determine whether groundwater samples for micropollutant analysis can be taken at a similar pumping volume as samples for testing standard chemical parameters in both environments, three groundwater monitoring wells in an RBF system were sampled at two points in time (after pumping of 3 well volumes and after pumping of 15 well volumes). Micropollutant concentrations were not significantly different between the two sampling points; therefore, appropriate samples can be drawn after pumping 3 well volumes. For a specific microbiological parameter (leucin incorporation), a statistically significant difference was found.     

Critical movement of large rocks in currents and waves

Cobbles, boulders, and rocks often are used in a bed protection layer near a structure to protect the underlying sand bed against erosion by combined current and waves. The design of a bed protection layer consisting of loose rocks (rubble mound) requires knowledge of the stability and movement (as bed load) of very coarse materials. If some movement (or damage) is acceptable, the rock diameter can be designed to be smaller. This paper addresses the stability and movement of very coarse materials (cobbles, boulders, and rocks) based on the concept of the critical Shields mobility number. It is shown that the bed load transport of large cobbles, boulders, and rocks can be described by the equations of Meyer-Peter and Mueller (MPM) and Cheng. Both are valid for relatively small Shields mobility numbers. New and general equations for the design of a bed protection layer (including some permissible damage) in conditions with a current with or without waves are proposed based on the Shields mobility parameter and the bed load transport equation of Cheng. Laboratory and field data of critical velocities for pebbles, cobbles, boulders, and rocks have been analyzed and compared to the computed results of the proposed equations. Practical applications are given to demonstrate the general applicability of the proposed equations.     

Rainfall measurement using cell phone links: classification of wet and dry periods using geostationary satellites

Commercial cellular telecommunication networks can be used for rainfall estimation by measuring the attenuation of electromagnetic signals transmitted between antennas from microwave links. However, as the received link signal may also decrease during dry periods, a method to separate wet and dry periods is required. Methods utilizing ground-based radar rainfall intensities or nearby link data cannot always be used. Geostationary satellites can provide a good alternative. A combination of two Meteosat Second Generation satellite precipitation products, Precipitating Clouds and Cloud Physical Properties, is employed to decide whether a 15-min time interval for a given link is rainy or not. A 12-d dataset of link-based rainfall maps for the Netherlands is validated against gauge-adjusted radar rainfall maps. Results clearly improve upon the case when no wet–dry classification is applied and thus the method shows potential for application to large areas of the world where the other methods cannot be applied.     

Preservation of the last aggradation phase in climate-driven terraces: Evidence from Late Quaternary reach-specific fluvial dynamics of the Allier River (France)

There is limited knowledge about the preservation of aggradation phases in Quaternary fluvial records. Previous numerical modelling of erosion and deposition in Late Quaternary Allier River (France) generated the prediction that this river has reach-specific fluvial dynamics related to climate-driven tributary sediment-flux dynamics. To test this prediction, new optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) samples were collected of the Late Quaternary Fx terrace at five locations along a stretch of 60 km. OSL dates of both quartz and feldspar sand grains indicate that all relatively basalt-poor sediments display significantly different ages for each reach (ranging from 36.3 ± 2.0 to 21.1 ± 2.3 ka). The more basalt-rich terrace body consistently yields ages in the range 21.1 ± 1.7 to 16.1 ± 1.5 ka, suggesting contemporaneous aggradation along the whole studied Allier reach during this interval. Our own new OSL date of a Tartaret eruption around 16.8 ± 2.5 ka also fits this time window, suggesting a direct link with volcanic activity. However, there are many more dated volcanic events that coincide with the older basalt-poor units, making it less likely that a direct link between terrace-sediment basalt content and volcanic activity exists. The timings of the dated depositional events in MIS 3 and 2 all match with simulated climate drivers and published landscape erosion rates. Counterintuitively, the volcanic Chaîne des Puys area supplied more sediment during the cold and dry Last Glacial Maximum. Basalt content in the Allier terrace sediments reflects climate-related sediment-flux dynamics upstream. The scarcity of older basalt-poor sediment bodies from MIS 4 and 3 in the Fx terrace suggests that less sediment was supplied and/or the intermittent erosional phases in the Allier were very effective at removing them. We hypothesize that this observation of predominant preservation of the last aggradation phase could be a common phenomenon in most climate-driven terraces. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Modelling the impact of a time-varying wave angle on the nonlinear evolution of sand bars in the surf zone

Sandy beaches are often characterized by the presence of sand bars, whose characteristics (growth, migration speed, etc.) strongly depend on offshore wave conditions, such as wave height and angle of wave incidence. This study addresses the impact of a sinusoidally time-varying wave angle of incidence with different time-means on the saturation height, migration speed and longshore spacing of sand bars. Model results show that shore-transverse sand bars (so-called TBR bars) eventually develop under a time-varying wave angle. Depending on the time-mean, amplitude and period of the varying angle of wave incidence, the mean heights and mean migration speeds of the bars can be larger or smaller than their corresponding values in the case of time-invariant angles. Bars might not even form when the wave angle varies around a too large oblique mean value, whereas bars exist in the case of a time-invariant wave angle. The oscillations in both bar height and migration speed are large if the period of the time-varying wave angle is close to the adjustment timescale of the system and if large differences in the local growth and migration rates of the bars occur during one oscillation period. The oscillations in bar height are a combination of harmonics with the principal period and half the period of the time-varying wave angle, whereas those of migration speed contain only the principal period. Bars that are subject to time-varying wave angles have larger longshore crest-to-crest spacings than those which form under fixed wave angles. Physical explanations for these findings are given. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd