The university as a local source of expertise

The relationship between the university and the city is expressed, amongst others, by the transfer of knowledge from the university to local actors. The universitys role as a local source of knowledge is studied by analyzing the outflow of the two main knowledge assets to the local area: graduates and research results. By comparing the results from universities in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom comparative evidence is discussed.     

A system-level modelling perspective of the KwaZulu-Natal Bight ecosystem,eastern South Africa

The KwaZulu-Natal Bight comprises the only sizeable shelf region on the eastern coast of South Africa, and is influenced by both the Agulhas Current on its seaward side and rivers and estuaries on its landward side. Established knowledge of the effect of the Agulhas Current includes the influence on nutrient concentrations in the bight of a semi-permanent upwelling cell at its northern border (St Lucia) and, to a much lesser extent, of a semi-permanent eddy feature at its southern extremity. Current modelling efforts, however, point to a very important role of land-derived nutrients, which supplement the productivity of food webs of the bight. This connectivity of the bight to its adjacent ecosystems has various implications. First, its productivity has traditionally been viewed via phytoplankton growth, whereas ecosystem modelling efforts point to a very high reliance on imported detritus (mainly land-derived) in order to sustain especially the rich benthic food web. The benthos in the bight dominates the food web, and is in marked contrast to the upwelling system of the west coast of South Africa (Atlantic Ocean) where water-column productivity dominates. Second, the importance of the connectivity of the Thukela Bank prawn-trawling ground to estuarine nursery areas, which has been modelled quantitatively, highlights the significance of this particular ecosystem connectivity for fisheries and also for the Thukela Bank food web. Heterogeneity across the bight is apparent for nutrient turnover rates (carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus), CNP content and stoichiometry, whereas nitrogen is a limiting nutrient across the entire bight. The food web near the Thukela River is richer in nutrient content and more active (higher turnover rates) compared to the northern and southern parts of the bight. This environmental heterogeneity was also apparent from the CNP content and stoichiometry of the various species and species groups in the bight. Requirements to take the hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and first ecosystem modelling efforts towards a meaningful predictive capability are discussed. The importance of adopting a system-level view of the bight and its connected systems for realistic exploration of global change scenarios is highlighted.     

Species composition,abundance and biomass of microphytoplankton in the KwaZulu-Natal Bight on the east coast of South Africa

Nearshore marine environments are influenced by an array of variables that can either be land-derived or of marine origin, and nearshore phytoplankton communities may differ in their taxonomic composition and biomass in response to such variables. The KwaZulu-Natal Bight (hereafter referred to as ‘the bight’) is an oligo-mesotrophic, nearshore oceanic environment, that is influenced by both terrestrial run-off and upwelling. A microphytoplankton survey of the bight conducted over several stations and depths and two seasons was conducted in order to ascertain species composition, abundance and biomass. Microphytoplankton abundance was generally low (a maximum of 180 000 cells l–1 was recorded) but differed considerably between sites and seasons. A total of 99 taxa of mainly Bacillariophyceae and some Dinophyceae, Prymnesiophyceae and Cyanophyceae were identified in the present study. In the central bight, higher abundance and biomass were measured in February (wet season), which may be a possible consequence of terrestrial nutrient inputs. In the northern and southern bight we measured higher abundance and biomass in August (dry season). Upwelling was not detected during the study, but an influence of terrestrial nutrient sources was detected at the coastal stations. Turbid conditions were specific to the site near the Thukela River mouth and possibly influenced abundance, biomass and species composition at this site. Historic data on microphytoplankton composition are scarce, but comparisons with surveys from the 1960s reveal that around 60% of the common diatoms recorded then also occurred in the present study. Small taxa [20–200 µm] dominated the microphytoplankton community. Community composition was fairly uniform throughout the bight in both seasons, dominated in general by Chaetoceros species, and on occasion co-dominated by Thalassionema nitzschioides and Dactyliosolen fragilissimus.     

Response to commentary by J. L. Bamber,W. P. Aspinall and R. M. Cooke (2016)

In a commentary paper, Bamber et al. (Nat Clim Change 3:424–427, 2016) respond to our recent assessment (De Vries and Van de Wal Clim Change 1–14, 2015) of their expert judgment based study on projections of future sea level rise due to the melting of the large ice sheets (Bamber and Aspinall Nat Clim Chang 3:424–427, 2013). In this response we comment on their remarks.     

Incorporating circulation statistics in bias correction of GCM ensembles: hydrological application for the Rhine basin

An adapted statistical bias correction method is introduced to incorporate circulation-dependence of the model precipitation bias, and its influence on estimated discharges for the Rhine basin is analyzed for a historical period. The bias correction method is tailored to time scales relevant to flooding events in the basin. Large-scale circulation patterns (CPs) are obtained through Maximum Covariance Analysis using reanalysis sea level pressure and high-resolution precipitation observations. A bias correction using these CPs is applied to winter and summer separately, acknowledging the seasonal variability of the circulation regimes in North Europe and their correlation with regional precipitation rates over the Rhine basin. Two different climate model ensemble outputs are explored: ESSENCE and CMIP5. The results of the CP-method are then compared to observations and uncorrected model outputs. Results from a simple bias correction based on a delta factor (NoCP-method) are also used for comparison. For both summer and winter, the CP-method offers a statistically significant improvement of precipitation statistics for subsets of data dominated by particular circulation regimes, demonstrating the circulation-dependence of the precipitation bias. Uncorrected, CP and NoCP corrected model outputs were used as forcing to a hydrological model to simulate river discharges. The CP-method leads to a larger improvement in simulated discharge in the Alpine area in winter than in summer due to a stronger dependence of Rhine precipitation on atmospheric circulation in winter. However, the NoCP-method, in comparison to the CP-method, improves the discharge estimations over the entire Rhine basin.     

Hydrogeological investigation of shallow aquifers in an arid data-scarce coastal region (El Daba’a,northwestern Egypt)

Hydrogeological investigations in arid regions are particularly important to support sustainable development. The study area, El Daba’a in northwestern Egypt, faces scarce water resources as a result of reported climate change that particularly affects the southern Mediterranean coast and increases stress on the local groundwater reserves. This change in climate affects the area in terms of drought, over-pumping and unregulated exploration of groundwater for irrigation purposes. The hydrogeological investigation is based on a multidisciplinary data-layer analysis that includes geomorphology, geology, slope, drainage lines, soil type, structural lineaments, subsurface data, stable isotopes, and chemical analyses. The study area contains Pleistocene and middle Miocene marine limestone aquifers. Based on lithology and microfacies analysis, the middle Miocene aquifer is subdivided into two water-bearing zones. The area is affected by sets of faults and anticline folds, and these structures are associated with fractures and joints that increase permeability and facilitate the recharge of groundwater. Stable isotope data indicate that groundwater of both the Pleistocene and middle Miocene aquifers is recharged by modern precipitation. The high salinity values observed in some groundwater wells that tap both aquifers could be attributed to leaching and dissolution processes of marine salts from the aquifers’ marine limestone matrix. In addition, human activities can also contribute to an increase in groundwater salinity. A future water exploration strategy, based on the results from the multidisciplinary data-layer analysis, is proposed for the area. The derived scientific approach is transferable to other arid coastal areas with comparable conditions.