Quantitative assessment of landslide hazard along transportation lines using historical records

In this paper, a quantitative landslide hazard model is presented for transportation lines, with an example for a road and railroad alignment, in parts of Nilgiri hills in southern India. The data required for the hazard assessment were obtained from historical records available for a 21-year period from 1987 to 2007. A total of 901 landslides from cut slopes along the railroad and road alignment were included in the inventory. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, and run-out distance. To calculate landslide hazard, we estimated the total number of individual landslides per kilometer of the (rail) road for different return periods, based on the relationship between past landslides (recorded in our database) and triggering events. These were multiplied by the probability that the landslides belong to a given magnitude class. This gives the hazard for a given return period expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometer of (rail) road. The relationship between the total number of landslides and the return period was established using a Gumbel distribution model, and the probability of landslide magnitude was obtained from frequency–volume statistics. The results of the analysis indicate that the total number of landslides, from 1- to 50-year return period, varies from 56 to 197 along the railroad and from 14 to 82 along the road. In total, 18 hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The hazard scenarios derived from the model form the basis for future direct and indirect landslide risk analysis along the transportation lines. The model was validated with landslides that occurred in the year 2009.     

Seasonal variability in somatic and reproductive investment of the bivalve Scrobicularia plana (da Costa, 1778) along a latitudinal gradient

Monthly investment in soma and gonads in the bivalve Scrobicularia plana is described for three populations along its distributional range: Minho estuary, Portugal; Westerschelde estuary, The Netherlands and Buvika estuary, Norway. Seasonal cycles in body mass (BMI), somatic mass (SMI) and gonadal mass (GMI) indices were observed for all populations. In Portugal, BMI and SMI peaked in mid-autumn, while in The Netherlands both indices were at their highest in mid-spring. Norway showed a different pattern with two distinct peaks: one in mid-autumn and a second peak in spring. GMI reached maximum values in July in Portugal and Netherlands and in June in Norway. Overall, mean BMI and SMI were lower in Portugal while mean GMI was lower in Norway. The spawning period lasted the whole summer in Portugal, but was shorter (only two months) in The Netherlands and Norway. The reproductive investment in The Netherlands was significantly higher than in Portugal and Norway, with the lowest values being observed in Norway. Differences in annual cycles between populations were attributed to environmental factors, namely temperature and food availability. Temperature seems important in shaping the reproductive pattern with more northern populations showing shorter reproductive periods starting later in the year, and a lower reproductive output. In addition, winter water temperatures can explain the lower mean body and somatic mass values observed in Portugal. Food availability influenced the physiological performance of the species with peaks in somatic mass coinciding with phytoplankton blooms. This relation between physiological performance and environmental factors influences S. plana distribution, densities and even survival, with natural consequences on its commercial importance.     

Trust relationships between fishers and government: New challenges for the co-management arrangements in the Dutch flatfish industry

Until the 1990s fisheries were largely managed by the state. Since then, Dutch government and the sector increasingly recognized that a fishing industry cannot be managed effectively without the cooperation and participation of fishers to formulate policy and to implement and enforce laws and regulations. As a result, in the nineties, the existing neo-corporatist arrangement was replaced by a co-management system in the Dutch flatfish fishery. Co-management is often seen as leading to greater procedural legitimacy and subsequently compliance. However, constructing an effective co-management arrangement is not only a matter of building institutions but also a matter of building trust relations between the government and industry. Institutional arrangements such as co-management can contribute to these trust building processes; however, a too strong reliance on institutional arrangements can lead to distrust when new challenges are being faced and institutional arrangements fail to adapt to these changes.     

The role of international environmental instruments in enhancing transboundary marine protected areas: An approach in East Africa

The increasing degradation of marine ecosystems has led to multiple calls for greater protection through the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). If created at the ecosystem or ecoregion level, MPAs will likely straddle maritime boundaries and therefore necessitate international cooperation. International environmental law and international law of the sea may facilitate cooperation between States in creating transboundary MPAs. The extent to which this body of law is actually or potentially useful for the establishment of transboundary MPAs is examined in the context of the East African Marine Ecoregion, focusing on Mozambique, South Africa, and Tanzania. A general survey and assessment of the applicable global, regional, and bilateral instruments in relation to the three States is conducted. Although some global instruments are relevant in the East African context, regional and bilateral instruments are more conducive to the establishment of transboundary MPAs. The article concludes that although a trilateral agreement between Mozambique, South Africa, and Tanzania would be an ideal vehicle for the establishment of a transboundary network of MPAs addressing both national and ecoregional conservation interests, a separate solution at each border will be the first step towards this goal.     

A continental analysis of correlations between tree patterns in African savannas and human and environmental variables

This study analyses possible relationships between natural processes taking place in savannas and the tree patterns found in savannas. This can lead to new hypotheses about which processes are driving savanna physiognomy. To do so tree patterns were quantified for African savannas from historical aerial photographs applying frequently used landscape metrics. Also, additional data for these areas were collected to quantify the processes taking place at these locations. Correlations between tree pattern indices and explaining factors were analysed. We found a negative trend between tree cover and density of sheep and goats, but no relationship between tree cover and density of cattle, suggesting that small livestock have an effect on tree cover, but that larger livestock (or obligate grazers) do not. Also, a positive correlation between human population density and tree cover was found. Possible explanations for the found relations are discussed. Subsequent ways to analyse the latter correlation are discussed, and the potential of the presented historical database of aerial photographs is highlighted.     

The 3D Geometry of Active Region Upflows Deduced from Their Limb-to-Limb Evolution

We analyze the evolution of coronal plasma upflows from the edges of AR 10978, which has the best limb-to-limb data coverage with Hinode’s EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS). We find that the observed evolution is largely due to the solar rotation progressively changing the viewpoint of nearly stationary flows. From the systematic changes in the upflow regions as a function of distance from disc center, we deduce their 3D geometrical properties as inclination and angular spread in three coronal lines (Si vii, Fe xii, and Fe xv). In agreement with magnetic extrapolations, we find that the flows are thin, fan-like structures rooted in quasi separatrix layers (QSLs). The fans are tilted away from the AR center. The highest plasma velocities in these three spectral lines have similar magnitudes and their heights increase with temperature. The spatial location and extent of the upflow regions in the Si vii, Fe xii, and Fe xv lines are different owing to i) temperature stratification and ii) line of sight integration of the spectral profiles with significantly different backgrounds. We conclude that we sample the same flows at different temperatures. Further, we find that the evolution of line widths during the disc passage is compatible with a broad range of velocities in the flows. Everything considered, our results are compatible with the AR upflows originating from reconnections along QSLs between over-pressure AR loops and neighboring under-pressure loops. The flows are driven along magnetic field lines by a pressure gradient in a stratified atmosphere. Our interpretation of the above results is that, at any given time, we observe the superposition of flows created by successive reconnections, leading to a broad velocity distribution.     

Thermal equation of state of synthetic orthoferrosilite at lunar pressures and temperatures

Iron-rich orthopyroxene plays an important role in models of the thermal and magmatic evolution of the Moon, but its density at high pressure and high temperature is not well-constrained. We present in situ measurements of the unit-cell volume of a synthetic polycrystalline end-member orthoferrosilite (FeSiO₃, fs) at simultaneous high pressures (3.4–4.8 GPa) and high temperatures (1,148–1,448 K), to improve constraints on the density of orthopyroxene in the lunar interior. Unit-cell volumes were determined through in situ energy-dispersive synchrotron X-ray diffraction in a multi-anvil press, using MgO as a pressure marker. Our volume data were fitted to a high-temperature Birch–Murnaghan equation of state (EoS). Experimental data are reproduced accurately, with a  $\varDelta P$ Δ P  standard deviation of 0.20 GPa. The resulting thermoelastic parameters of fs are: V ₀ = 875.8 ± 1.4 Å³, K ₀ = 74.4 ± 5.3 GPa, and $\frac{{\text d}K}{{\text d}T} = -0.032 \pm 0.005\,\hbox{GPa K}^{-1}$ d K d T = - 0.032 ± 0.005 GPa K - 1 , assuming ${K}^{\prime}_{0} = 10 $ K 0 ′ = 10 . We also determined the thermal equation of state of a natural Fe-rich orthopyroxene from Hidra (Norway) to assess the effect of magnesium on the EoS of iron-rich orthopyroxene. Comparison between our two data sets and literature studies shows good agreement for room-temperature, room-pressure unit-cell volumes. Preliminary thermodynamic analyses of orthoferrosilite, FeSiO₃, and orthopyroxene solid solutions, (Mg_1?x Fe _x ) SiO₃, using vibrational models show that our volume measurements in pressure–temperature space are consistent with previous heat capacity and one-bar volume–temperature measurements. The isothermal bulk modulus at ambient conditions derived from our measurements is smaller than values presented in the literature. This new simultaneous high-pressure, high-temperature data are specifically useful for calculations of the orthopyroxene density in the Moon.     

Use of quantitative landslide hazard and risk information for local disaster risk reduction along a transportation corridor: a case study from Nilgiri district, India

The objective of analyzing hazard and risk in an area is to utilize the result in selecting appropriate landslide risk reduction strategies. However, this does not happen always, and most often results of the hazard and risk analysis remain at an academic level. The under or non-utilization of results in pre-disaster planning could be due to several reasons, including difficulties in understanding the scientific content/meaning of the models, and lack of information on the practical significance and utility of the models. In this study, an attempt is made to highlight the uses of hazard and risk information in different landslide risk reduction strategies along a transportation corridor in Nilgiri, India. At first, a quantitative analysis of landslide hazard and risk was made. The obtained information was then incorporated in risk reduction options such as land use zoning, engineering solutions, and emergency preparedness. For emergency preparedness, the perception of the local Nilgiri communities toward landslide risk was evaluated and simplified maps were generated for the benefit and understanding of end users. A rainfall threshold-based early warning system was presented, which could be used in risk awareness programs involving public participation. The use of quantitative risk information in the cost-benefit analysis for the planning of structural measures to protect the road and railway alignments was also highlighted, and examples were shown how the transport organizations could implement these measures. Finally, the study provided examples of the utility of hazard and risk information for spatial planning and zoning, indicating areas where the landslide hazard is too high for planning future developments.