Estimation and prediction of the spatial occurrence of fish species using Bayesian latent Gaussian models

A methodological approach for modelling the occurrence patterns of species for the purpose of fisheries management is proposed here. The presence/absence of the species is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model using the geographical and environmental characteristics of each fishing location. Maps of predicted probabilities of presence are generated using Bayesian kriging. Bayesian inference on the parameters and prediction of presence/absence in new locations (Bayesian kriging) are made by considering the model as a latent Gaussian model, which allows the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation ( INLA ) software (which has been seen to be quite a bit faster than the well-known MCMC methods). In particular, the spatial effect has been implemented with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The methodology is evaluated on Mediterranean horse mackerel (Trachurus mediterraneus) in the Western Mediterranean. The analysis shows that environmental and geographical factors can play an important role in directing local distribution and variability in the occurrence of species. Although this approach is used to recognize the habitat of mackerel, it could also be for other different species and life stages in order to improve knowledge of fish populations and communities.     

Robust Regulation of Alkalinity in Highly Uncertain Continuous Anaerobic Digestion Processes

In this paper, a multiple‐input multiple‐output (MIMO) model‐based robust control scheme is proposed for the indirect control of both total alkalinity and the ratio (intermediate alkalinity)/(total alkalinity) by regulating volatile fatty acid concentrations and strong ions concentration, while guaranteeing the so‐called operational stability in anaerobic digestion (AD) processes. The proposed MIMO regulator is an adaptive controller derived from an AD model which incorporates the physicochemical equilibrium of the system as well as the use of a robust interval observer to estimate key process bounds that are used in the computation of the control efforts. Numerical simulations were carried out for a number of operating conditions under the most uncertain scenarios. Results showed that the proposed multivariable control law is able to recover the system stability around a pre‐determined set point in the face of parameter uncertainty and load disturbances.     

Pollen, phytoliths, arthropods and high-resolution 14C sampling from Rano Kau, Easter Island: evidence for late Quaternary environments, ant (Formicidae) distributions and human activity

A 20-m sediment core from Rano Kau, Easter Island provides plant microfossil, arthropod fossil and high-resolution ¹⁴C sampling evidence for late Quaternary environments, ant (Formicidae) distributions and human activity. The record commences prior to or during the LGM, providing the two oldest dates for Rano Kau thus far, 20,340 ± 160 and 34,260 ± 440 BP. The vegetation at the time was mostly Arecaceae (palm)-dominated grassland-woodland, suggesting cooler/drier conditions than present. Near the start of the Holocene c. 12,500 cal BP, climate alleviation is indicated by Asteraceae shrubland increasing at the expense of grassland. There is an early to mid-Holocene sediment hiatus. The record recommences c. 3,500 cal BP, with in-washed clayey soils bearing charcoal and phytoliths of Polynesian-introduced Musa (banana) and mixed with wetland detritus, reflecting slumping as a result of forest clearance and gardening. Dates of material of other plants from the clay/detritus layers containing the Musa phytoliths are older than expected, within the range 3,680–2,750 cal BP, well before settlement of Eastern Polynesia. This could reflect horticultural material settling in an older part of the sediment column or age increase by reservoir effects. A long section of overlying unconsolidated detritus provides a progressively younger upward sequence from 2,840–2,870 to 930–810 cal BP, but dates are variable after 1,290–1,180 cal BP, where charcoal, disturbance-related pollen and older than expected ant exoskeletons demonstrate the inclusion of pre-aged material from the floating vegetation mat or upslope erosion in the sediment column. Arecaceae pollen declines sharply after 930–810 cal BP. Arthropod analysis reveals two new weevil species for Easter Island, and two ant taxa, Tetramorium bicarinatum and Pheidole sp., the latter of which is also new for the island. Three of the four age determinations on ant remains suggest that ants were present prior to c. 2,500 cal BP, and probably associated with the period following the resumption of sediment accumulation c. 3,500 cal BP. Unless the apparent ant ¹⁴C ages have been increased by reservoir effects, these results question the long-accepted assumption that all Eastern Polynesia’s ant species have been introduced.     

Comparison of Different Techniques of Tilt Testing and Basic Friction Angle Variability Assessment

A relevant parameter for estimating discontinuity shear strength is the basic friction angle, usually derived from different types of tilt tests. However, the tilt tests described in the literature produce varying basic friction angle values. From a large number of different types of tilt tests on different kinds of rocks, it was possible to conclude that the mechanisms of sliding along cylinder generatrixes and planar surfaces are quite different, and that tests based on sliding along generatrixes are not appropriate for determining reliable basic friction angle values for discontinuity planes. Tests on small specimens are also not recommended, for geometry reasons and because ensuring reliable stress conditions is difficult. To quantify the natural variability in tilt testing, large specimens of the same granite were tested. The results revealed coefficients of variation for the basic friction angle in the range of 5–10?%, a variability which is no greater than that found for other rock mechanics parameters. This observation enables to forward some recommendations concerning the appropriate number of tests needed to obtain reliable results.     

The 2011 submarine volcanic eruption in El Hierro (Canary Islands)

Forty years after the Teneguía Volcano (La Palma, 1971), a submarine eruption took place off the town of La Restinga, south of El Hierro, the smallest and youngest island of the Canarian Archipelago. Precursors allowed an early detection of the event and its approximate location, suggesting it was submarine. Uncertainties derived from insufficient scientific information available to the authorities during the eruption, leading to disproportionate civil protection measures, which had an impact on the island's economy—based primarily on tourism—while residents experienced extra fear and distress.     

Groundwater flow model, recharge estimation and sustainability in an arid region of Patagonia, Argentina

The Península Valdés, in northeastern Patagonia, Argentina, is characterised by its arid climate and the lack of perennial watercourses; thus, all economic activities depend on the groundwater resources. Water demand is mainly associated with tourism, which is centralised in Puerto Pirámides and supplied by a water desalination plant, and to sheep farming, supplied by the local aquifer. Due to the exponential growth of tourism, the government is planning to exploit groundwater and convey it by aqueduct to the abovementioned locality. The objectives of this study were to corroborate the conceptual geohydrological model, to develop a mathematical model to simulate the response of the aquifer to different scenarios, and to assess the incidence of water input into the system as a variable—a function that poses difficulties in the models for arid regions. The Visual Modflow 4.1 code was used, calibrating it in trial-and-error mode, changing the recharge and hydraulic conductivity parameters with different variants in the recharge zone and in the inclusion or exclusion of the evapotranspiration module. Results indicate the importance of the recharge analysis by treating rainfall at daily time steps. The adjusted model was exposed to four scenarios with variations in water input and in output by pumping. It can be concluded that under different input conditions, but with a controlled extraction, the system responds in a sustainable manner.     

Response of the topside ionosphere over Arecibo to a moderate geomagnetic storm

We analyze the data obtained using the Arecibo incoherent scatter radar to examine the response of the topside ionosphere to a moderate geomagnetic storm that occurred during the period March 7–11, 2008. During this time period a magnetic storm with a non-monotonic main phase decrease in the Dst index occurred. The recovery phase also exhibited a secondary Dst decrease. During the initial phase of the storm, Te and Ti increased coincident with the arrival of the solar wind. The main phase registered an increase in proton concentration proportional to Ne while temperatures reached the lowest values. Variations in O⁺ concentration were not significant but a reduction in helium fraction was observed. Soon after the peak of the storm, the transition height between the topside ionosphere and the protonosphere, where H⁺ ions dominate composition, was lower than would be expected during quiet conditions and this behavior lasted for approximately 12 h.     

Effects of the foot evolution on the behaviour of slow-moving landslides

The paper presents a time-dependent 2D numerical model which has been developed with the purpose of highlighting the effects of the slope foot evolution on the behaviour of slow-moving landslides. The model allows to quantitatively analyse how foot mass variations can influence the stability and the movement rates of the landslide.The landslide body is modelled as composed of two rigid blocks sliding on two different planes and interacting through a common boundary, which position is assumed fixed during the analysis. A finite difference approach is used to discretize the time. For each time increment, changes in model parameters are allowed, including variations in shearing resistances, groundwater level and block masses (in order to simulate foot erosion). During each iteration, the overall stability of the system is checked computing the safety factor, assuming that the percentage of mobilized shear strength is the same for the three surfaces. If the system is not stable or if it is not at rest, the velocity of the system is computed solving the momentum equations for the two blocks taking into account destabilising and resisting forces, the mechanical interaction between the blocks and viscous components. Computed velocities are iteratively used to compute mass accumulation at the foot, which in turn results in a change of the stability condition of the system.Examples are provided in order to highlight the roles of the model parameters. Finally, the application to a real landslide (Vallcebre, Spain) is presented which shows the advantage of considering the foot mass in the analysis of the displacement trends and the possibility to take into account the foot erosion in the long-term behaviour of the slope.