Knowledge of paleoclimates and past climate change is important to put recent and future climate change in perspective. In the absence of well-developed methodology to reconstruct paleoprecipitation the majority of climate reconstructions focus on temperature, whereas precipitation is an equally important climate parameter. This paper explores the possibility of inferring paleoprecipitation from lake-level records by inverse hydrological modelling. Pollen spectra of a lacustrine sediment core were used to infer changes in past temperatures and lake levels during the past 14,000 years. A hydrological model that calculates lake levels using meteorological parameters and a digital terrain model were developed for the catchment area of Lake La Cocha. After calibration the model accurately simulated modern lake levels. A sensitivity analysis shows that the model results are most sensitive to temperature and precipitation. This hydrological model was subsequently used to estimate mean annual precipitation needed to reproduce the pollen-based reconstructed lake levels (inverse modelling). The lake currently discharges through the permanent Guamués River, with a modelled mean annual discharge of 3.6 m3 s?1. However, past lake levels and hydrological modelling results suggest that Lake La Cocha has been free of discharge during most of the Holocene, and after an intermittent phase only recently started discharging permanently. The uncertainty in the inferred precipitation during the discharge-free period is estimated at ~22 mm. Quasi stable lake levels seem to justify using equilibrium conditions when reconstructing precipitation. Early Holocene lake levels were ~10 m lower than modern values, implying that precipitation must have been 30–40 % less than today. 相似文献
The proximity to the Tacaná volcano, to the subduction zone between the Cocos and North America plates, to the Mexican coast, and to the active geologic Polochic-Motagua fault makes the population of Union Juarez (UJ), Chiapas, Mexico, exposed to many natural hazards including hurricanes, earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. We assessed the risk perception of UJ, and our findings indicate that the community has moderate level of risk perception according to the scale of the National Center for Disaster Prevention of Mexico. The UJ’s risk perception is mainly dependent on gender and religion because females unlike males in case of disasters and emergencies: (1) believe that it is necessary to improve their preparedness; (2) trust the local civil protection authorities; (3) would know how to respond; (4) would follow the established protocols; and (5) would not relocate. On the other hand, non-religious people know better the protocols to follow in the event of disasters than the religious population. Besides, the community of UJ reasonably perceives earthquakes and extreme rains as the main hazards that they are exposed to, while volcanic hazards are considered less important although the town is located very close to the Tacaná volcano that has been active during the last 30 years. The local population lacks of proper knowledge and resources to develop adequate disaster mitigation plans. Surprisingly, the work of the local civil protection is considered poor. Our results can be used for local authorities as a tool to strength the disaster prevention actions in UJ.
The Las Matras Block in Central Argentina constitutes the southernmost part of the Cuyania terrane, which was accreted to the southwestern margin of Gondwana during the Early to Mid Ordovician Famatinian orogeny. The Grenville-aged rocks of the Las Matras Block are represented by the tonalitic to trondhjemitic Las Matras pluton. A new U-Pb conventional zircon age of 1244±42 Ma confirms previous Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr isochron ages of this pluton. Mineral composition data are consistent with the tonalitic-trondhjemitic character of the pluton, and constrain its emplacement level to 1.9 to 2.6 kb. This shallow level of emplacement and the undeformed character of the pluton are distinctive features of this southernmost basement. A regional comparison indicates that the igneous-metamorphic evolution of the Grenville-aged basement rocks of the Cuyania terrane occurred over a period of more than 200 million years, with ages older than 1200 Ma up to those close to 1000 Ma. The shallowest crustal level is found in Las Matras, suggesting a southward shallowing of the exposed level of basement. The deformation and metamorphism associated with the collisional Famatinian orogeny affect both the Cuyania terrane and the adjacent western margin of Gondwana, and the Gondwana margin was also the locus of the related arc magmatism, but the compressive effects of the collision decrease in intensity toward the south. The Famatinian metamorphism and magmatism continue even further south into the Patagonia region, but the southern continuity of the Cuyania terrane into this region remains uncertain. 相似文献
