Climate benefits of changing diet

Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO₂-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.     

Geostatistics for Compositional Data: An Overview

Mathematical Geosciences - This paper presents an overview of results for the geostatistical analysis of collocated multivariate data sets, whose variables form a composition, where the components...     

New age constraints on the western Betic intramontane basins: A late Tortonian closure of the Guadalhorce Corridor?

Several gateways connected the Mediterranean with the Atlantic during the late Miocene but the timing of closure and therefore their role prior to and during the Messinian Salinity Crisis (5.97–5.33 Ma) is still under debate. The timing of closure of the Guadalhorce Corridor is especially disputed as the common lack of marine microfossils hampers precise age determination. Here we present new biostratigraphic age constraints on the sediments of the Ronda, Antequera and Arcos regions, which formed the northern part of the Guadalhorce Corridor. The general presence of Globorotalia menardii 4 in the youngest deep‐marine sediments of all three regions indicates a late Tortonian age, older than 7.51 Ma. We conclude that the Guadalhorce Corridor closed during the late Tortonian, well before the onset of the Messinian Salinity Crisis and that the late Tortonian tectonic uplift of the eastern Betics extended into the western Betics.     

Global impact of a climate treaty if the Human Development Index replaces GDP as a welfare proxy

This study explores the implications of shifting the narrative of climate policy evaluation from one of costs/benefits or economic growth to a message of improving social welfare. Focusing on the costs of mitigation and the associated impacts on gross domestic product (GDP) may translate into a widespread concern that a climate agreement will be very costly. This article considers the well-known Human Development Index (HDI) as an alternative criterion for judging the welfare effects of climate policy. We estimate what the maximum possible annual average increase in HDI welfare per tons of CO₂ would be within the carbon budget associated with limiting warming to 2°C over the period 2015–2050. Emission pathways are determined by a policy that allows the HDI of poor countries and their emissions to increase under a business-as-usual development path, while countries with a high HDI value (>0.8) have to restrain their emissions to ensure that the global temperature rise does not exceed 2°C. For comparison, the well-known multi-regional RICE model is used to assess GDP growth under the same climate change policy goals.

Policy relevance

This is the first study that shifts the narrative of climate policy evaluation from one of GDP growth to a message of improving social welfare, as captured by the HDI. This could make it easier for political leaders and climate negotiators to publicly commit themselves to ambitious carbon emission reduction goals, such as limiting global warming to 2°C, as in the (non-binding) agreement made at COP 21 in Paris in 2015. We find that if impacts are framed in terms of growth in HDI per t CO₂ emission per capita instead of in GDP, the HDI of poor countries and their emissions are allowed to increase under a business-as-usual development path, whereas countries with a high HDI (>0.8) must control emissions so that global temperature rise remains within 2°C. Importantly, a climate agreement is more attractive for rich countries under the HDI than the GDP frame. This is good news, as these countries have to make the major contribution to emissions reductions.     

Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.

     

Variability in the speciation of iron in the northern North Sea

Variations in the speciation of iron in the northern North Sea were investigated in an area covering at least two different water masses and an algal bloom, using a combination of techniques. Catalytic cathodic stripping voltammetry was used to measure the concentrations of reactive iron (Fe_R) and total iron (Fe_T) in unfiltered samples, while dissolved iron (Fe_D) was measured by GFAAS after extraction of filtered sea water. Fe_R was defined by the amount of iron that complexed with 20 μM 1-nitroso-2-napthol (NN) at pH 6.9. Fe_T was determined after UV-digestion at pH 2.4. Concentrations of natural organic iron complexing ligands and values for conditional stability constants, were determined in unfiltered samples by titration. Mean concentrations of 1.3 nM for Fe_R, 10.0 nM for Fe_T and 1.7 nM for Fe_D were obtained for the area sampled. Fe_R concentrations increased towards the south of the area investigated, as a result of the increased influence of continental run off. Fe_R concentrations were found to be enhanced below the nutricline (below 40 m) as a result of the remineralisation of organic material. Enhanced levels of Fe_T were observed in some surface samples and in samples collected below 30 m at stations in the south of the area studied, thought to be a result of high concentrations of biogenic particulate material and the resuspended sediments respectively. Fe_D concentrations varied between values similar to those of Fe_T in samples from the north of the area to values similar to those of Fe_R in the south. The bloom was thought to have influenced the distribution of both Fe_R and Fe_T, but less evidence was observed for any influence on Fe_R and Fe_D. The concentration of organic complexing ligands, which could possibly include a contribution from adsorption sites on particulate material, increased slightly in the bloom area and in North Sea waters. Iron was found to be fully (99.9%) complexed by the organic complexing ligands at a pH of 6.9 and largely complexed (82–96%) at pH 8. The ligands were almost saturated with iron suggesting that the ligand concentration could limit the concentration of iron occurring as dissolved species.     

Responses of marine phytoplankton in iron enrichment experiments in the northern North Sea and northeast Atlantic Ocean

Short-term iron enrichment experiments were carried out with samples collected in areas with different phytoplankton activity in the northern North Sea and northeast Atlantic Ocean in the summer of 1993. The research area was dominated by high numbers of pico-phytoplankton, up to 70,000 ml⁻¹. Maximum chlorophyll a concentrations varied from about 1.0 μg l⁻¹ in a high-reflectance zone (caused by loose coccoliths, remnants from a bloom of Emiliania huxleyi) and about 3.5 μg l⁻¹ in a zone in which the phytoplankton were growing, to about 0.5 μg l⁻¹ in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. From the high-reflectance zone to the northeast Atlantic Ocean, nitrate concentrations increased from 0.5 μM to 6.0 μM. Concentrations of reactive iron in surface water showed an opposite trend and decreased from about 2.6 nM in the high-reflectance zone to <1.0 nM in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. In the research area, no signs of true iron deficiency were found, but iron enrichments in the high-reflectance zone, numerically dominated by Synechococcus sp., resulted in increased nitrate uptake. Ammonium uptake was hardly affected. Strong support for the effect of Fe on cell physiology is given by the increase in the f-ratio. Net growth rates of the phytoplankton (changes in cell numbers over 24 h) were almost unchanged. Phytoplankton collected from the northeast Atlantic Ocean, did not show changes in the nitrogen metabolism upon addition of iron. Net growth rates in these incubations were low or negative, with only slightly higher values with additional iron.