Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two-dimensional hydraulic modelling approach

Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 10³ floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m³/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management.     

Basaltic and Solution Reference Materials for Iron,Copper and Zinc Isotope Measurements

Iron, Cu and Zn stable isotope systems are applied in constraining a variety of geochemical and environmental processes. Secondary reference materials have been developed by the Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences (CAGS), in collaboration with other participating laboratories, comprising three solutions (CAGS‐Fe, CAGS‐Cu and CAGS‐Zn) and one basalt (CAGS‐Basalt). These materials exhibit sufficient homogeneity and stability for application in Fe, Cu and Zn isotopic ratio determinations. Reference values were determined by inter‐laboratory analytical comparisons involving up to eight participating laboratories employing MC‐ICP‐MS techniques, based on the unweighted means of submitted results. Isotopic compositions are reported in per mil notation, based on reference materials IRMM‐014 for Fe, NIST SRM 976 for Cu and IRMM‐3702 for Zn. Respective reference values of CAGS‐Fe, CAGS‐Cu and CAGS‐Zn solutions are as follows: δ⁵⁶Fe = 0.83 ± 0.07 and δ⁵⁷Fe = 1.20 ± 0.13, δ⁶⁵Cu = 0.57 ± 0.06, and δ⁶⁶Zn = ?0.79 ± 0.12 and δ⁶⁸Zn = ?1.65 ± 0.24, respectively. Those of CAGS‐Basalt are δ⁵⁶Fe = 0.15 ± 0.07, δ⁵⁷Fe = 0.22 ± 0.10, δ⁶⁵Cu = 0.12 ± 0.08, δ⁶⁶Zn = 0.17 ± 0.13, and δ⁶⁸Zn = 0.34 ± 0.26 (2s).     

Generic 3D interpolation of Holocene base‐level rise and provision of accommodation space,developed for the Netherlands coastal plain and infilled palaeovalleys

We present an interpolation model that describes Holocene groundwater level rise and the creation of accommodation space in 3D in the Rhine‐Meuse delta – the Netherlands. The model area (ca. 12 400 km²) covers two palaeovalleys of Late Pleistocene age (each 30 km wide) and the overlying Holocene deposits of the Rhine‐Meuse delta, the Holland coastal plain, and the Zuiderzee former lagoon. Water table rise is modelled from 10 800 to 1000 cal. BP, making use of age‐depth relations based on 384 basal peat index points, and producing output in the form of stacked palaeo groundwater surfaces, groundwater age‐depth curves, and voxel sets. These products allow to resolve (i) regional change and variations of inland water table slopes, (ii) spatial differences in the timing and pacing of transgression, and (iii) analysis of interplay of coastal, fluvial and subsidence controls on the provision of accommodation space. The interpolation model is a multi‐parameter trend function, to which a 3D‐kriging procedure of the residuals is added. This split design deploys a generic approach for modelling provision of accommodation space in deltas and coastal lowlands, aiming to work both in areas of intermediate data availability and in the most data‐rich environments. Major provision of accommodation space occurred from 8500 cal BP onwards, but a different evolution occurred in each of the two palaeovalleys. In the northern valley, creation of accommodation space began to stall at 7500 cal BP, while in the southern valley provision of new accommodation space in considerable quantities continued longer. The latter is due to the floodplain gradient that was maintained by the Rhine, which distinguishes the fluvial deltaic environment from the rest of the back‐barrier coastal plain. The interpolation results allow advanced mapping and investigation of apparent spatial differences in Holocene aggradation in larger coastal sedimentary systems. Furthermore, they provide a means to generate first‐order age information with centennial precision for 3D geological subsurface models of Holocene deltas and valley fills. As such, the interpolation is of use in studies into past and present land subsidence and into low land sedimentation.     

Reconciling Multiple Societal Objectives in Cross-Scale Marine Governance: Solomon Islands’ Engagement in the Coral Triangle Initiative

Environmental governance aims to reconcile an expanding set of societal objectives at ever-larger scales despite the challenges that remain in integrating conservation and development at smaller scales. We interrogate Solomon Islands’ engagement in the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security to contribute new insight on the scalar politics of multi-level marine governance. We show how regional objectives are re-interpreted and prioritized as they translate into national policy and practice. Our data suggest that enhanced coordination of finances and activities, integration of objectives in shared protocols and priority geographies, and a subtle shift in power relations between the state, donors, and implementation partners have resulted from processes of re-scaling. We discuss important procedural adjustments in cross-level and cross-scale governance across jurisdictional, institutional, and sectoral scales. We also reflect on the changing role of national governments in shifts toward large-scale, multi-national initiatives.     

Kinematics of quasars and AGN

The VLBA has been used over a period of four years to study the internal motions within a sample of quasars and AGN. In most sources, features appear to propagate away from the central engine along a well collimated radio jet with apparent transverse velocities between zero and 10c, with some evidence for apparent accelerations and decelerations. The distribution of apparent velocity is not consistent with any simple ballistic model and appears to require either a spread in intrinsic velocity or a difference between the bulk velocity and pattern velocity. The dependence of apparent angular velocity with redshift is consistent with standard Friedmann world models. Further observations of a larger source sample, especially at large redshift may lead to meaningful constraints on world models.     

Comments on EPA Guidance for Ground Water Studies

"The panel provided good, solid, interdisciplinary advice on a variety of challenging, state-of-the-art issues."     

Europeans Test Pesticide Models

This column focuses on recent work in Europe. The intent is to present to American readers relevant studies they would not normally see. Much of the following was presented at the 9th International Congress of Pesticide Chemistry last summer in London. The congress was jointly sponsored by the International Union of Pure & Applied Chemistry and the Royal Society of Chemistry.