Variable resolution on quasi-uniform grids: linear advection experiments

Summary A couple of different techniques for implementing the variable resolution within numerical models of the atmosphere that use quasi-uniform grids are estimated and compared based on their merit in the simple linear advection experiments. These techniques are: grid stretching, Schmidt transforming and grid overlapping. The quasi-uniform grids are: a conformal cubic and an octagonal grid. The techniques for the variable resolution are evaluated from the perspective of their effects on numerical solution and the practicality of their application. Our analysis suggests that the grid stretching is for now the most optimal choice. However, a special form of grid overlapping is presented that has potential to become a viable alternative in the future.     

Examination of physical processes of convective cell evolved from a MCS — Using a different model initialization

The present study is focused on examination of the physical processes of convective cell evolved from a MCS occurred on 4 November 2011 over Genoa, Italy. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) have been performed using WRF v3.6 model under different configurations and cloud permitting simulations. The results indicate underestimation of the amount of precipitation and spatial displacement of the area with a peak 24-h accumulated rainfall in (mm). Our main objective in the research is to test the cloud model ability and performance in simulation of this particular case. For that purpose a set of sensitivity experiments under different model initializations and initial data have been conducted. The results also indicate that the merging process apparently alters the physical processes through low- and middle-level forcing, increasing cloud depth, and enhancing convection. The examination of the microphysical process simulated by the model indicates that dominant production terms are the accretion of rain by graupel and snow, probabilistic freezing of rain to form graupel and dry and wet growth of graupel. Experiment under WRF v3.6 model initialization has shown some advantage in simulation of the physical processes responsible for production and initiation of heavy rainfall compared to other model runs. Most of the precipitation came from ice-phase particles-via accretion processes and the graupel melting at temperature T₀ ≥ 0°C. The rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall calculated by the model closely reflect the amount of rainfall recorded. Thus, the main benefit is to better resolve convective showers or storms which, in extreme cases, can give rise to major flooding events. In such a way, this model may become major contributor to improvements in weather analysis and small-scale atmospheric predictions and early warnings of such subscale processes.     

Spectral analysis of the “Koshava” wind

Summary “Koshava” is a gusty wind of changeable intensity, blowing from a south-easterly direction, over Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria. It is caused by the interaction between the synoptic circulation and the orography of the Carpathian and the Balkan mountains. This paper analyzes wind data measured at the Belgrade-Observatory during the longest period of consecutive days of “Koshava” which occurred from 14 January to 13 February 1972. Mean hourly wind speed data has been examined using spectral analysis. The power spectra are calculated using autocorrelation spectral analysis, the multi-taper method and wavelet transform. The maximum of which is about 122 h (5 days) corresponds to the time span of synoptic processes.     

Applying size segregation to relate the surrounding aerosol pollution to its source

Size segregated sampling of aerosol particles at the coal-fired power station Šoštanj, Slovenia was performed by a newly developed system. In addition, simultaneous sampling of particles was performed at two locations, Velenje and Veliki vrh, chosen on the basis of long term monitoring of SO₂ in the influential area of power plant. The signature of the power plant (e.g. characteristic size distributions of some typical trace elements) was identified. For elements, like As, Mo, Cd and Ga, which are typical for coal combustion, the highest concentrations were observed in the size range between 1 and 4 μm. For Se and sometimes for Ga two modes were identified, first between 0.1 and 0.5 μm and second between 1 and 4 μm. Ratios between the average concentrations of selected elements in fine and coarse particles collected at Veliki vrh (the most influenced location) and Velenje (usually not influenced by the thermo power station) were significantly higher than 1 in the case of Mo and Se for coarse and fine size range, while for As the ratio was higher than 1 for the coarse fraction. Consequently, Mo, Se and As were found as the most important tracers for the emissions from the investigated source. On the basis of the ratios between the concentrations of elements measured in particles at low and high SO₂ concentrations at Veliki vrh, Cd was shown to be a typical tracer as well. Our results definitely showed that size segregated measurements of particles at the source and in the influenced area give more precise information on the influence of source to the surrounding region. It was found that patterns of size distributions for typical trace elements observed at the source are found also in the influenced area, i.e. Veliki vrh.     

Numerical Study of Winter Diurnal Convection Over the City of Krasnoyarsk: Effects of Non-freezing River,Undulating Fog and Steam Devils

We performed a numerical simulation of penetrative convection of an inversion-topped weakly stratified atmospheric boundary layer over urban terrain with a strong localized source of heat and moisture. With some simplifications, the case mimics the real environment of the Krasnoyarsk region in Russia where the non-freezing river Yenisei acts as a thermal and humidity source during winter, generating an undulating fog pattern along the river accompanied with scattered ‘steam devils’. An idealized full diurnal cycle was simulated using an unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) three-equation algebraic flux model and the novel buoyancy-accounting functions for treating the ground boundary conditions. The results show a significant effect of the river on the net temperature and moisture distribution. The localized heat and moisture source leads to strong horizontal convection and marked non-uniformity of humidity concentration in the air. An interplay of several distinct large-scale vortex systems leads to a wavy pattern of moisture plumes over the river. The simulations deal with rare natural phenomena and show the capability of the RANS turbulence closure to capture the main features of flow and scalar fields on an affordable, relatively coarse, computational grid.     

Eta model forecasts of tropical cyclones from Australian Monsoon Experiment: Dynamical adjustment of initial conditions

Summary The University of Belgrade/National Meteorological Centre, Washington (UB/NMC) limited area Eta Model predicted the development, structure, associated precipitation and tracks of the Australian Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) (10 January through 15 February 1987) tropical cyclonesConnie, Irma, Damien andJason. The initial positions and intensities of the tropical cyclone vortices from the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses, which are used as initial data, do not quite agree with the observations. These disagreements produce additional erros in predicting the tropical cyclone tracks.To improve the initial position of the vortex, the flow is split into the small and the large scale motions, and during the first two hours of the integration, the small-scale part is forced in small steps towards its observed position. The adjustment is performaed with the reduced model dynamics (adjustment processes only) and no physics.With the adjustment during the first two hours of the integration, the model successfully adjusts to the new position of the initial vortex. After the completion of the adjustment stage, the model runs normally, i.e., without any modification. The tracks of the 48-h forecasts with the adjusted initial vortices are parallel to the tracks obtained in the control forecasts without the adjustment. However, e.g., the mean absolute error of the positions during 48-h forecast of the tropical cycloneConnie was reduced from 174 km in the control case to 129 km in the case with adjustment of the position.The latent heat, the thermal energy, the kinetic energy and the total energy of the extracted small scale vortices are calculated every three hours of the integration time. These small-scale energies obtained in the 48-h control forecast are compared to those of the rund with the initial vortex adjustment to monitor the spin up of the model.With 7 Figures     

Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation in Vojvodina,Serbia

Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation observed at 92 stations in Vojvodina (Serbia) were analyzed during the period 1946–2006. The rainfall series were examined by means of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The first set of singular vectors explains from 68.8 % (in summer) to 81.8 % (in winter) of the total variance. The temporal variability of the time series associated with the main EOF configurations (the principal components, PCs) was examined using the Mann–Kendall test and the spectral analysis. The time series of PC1 revealed decreasing trend in the winter and spring precipitation and increasing trend in the autumn, summer, and annual precipitation. The relationships between the first PC and circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, were also investigated. The PC1, displaying temporal behavior of the first mode, demonstrated evident correspondence with the NAO index in analysis of the annual, winter, and autumn precipitation. Power spectra of the PC1 show statistically significant oscillations of about 3.3 years for the spring precipitation and about 8 and 15 years for the winter precipitation. Comparisons with spectral analysis of authors for some regions in Europe, most of them in the Mediterranean domain, show that similar periodicities are detected.     

A bilinear approximation of the surface relief in terrain correction computations

A new method is presented for the computation of the gravitational attraction of topographic masses when their height information is given on a regular grid. It is shown that the representation of the terrain relief by means of a bilinear surface not only offers a serious alternative to the polyhedra modeling, but also approaches even more smoothly the continuous reality. Inserting a bilinear approximation into the known scheme of deriving closed analytical expressions for the potential and its first-order derivatives for an arbitrarily shaped polyhedron leads to a one-dimensional integration with – apparently – no analytical solution. However, due to the high degree of smoothness of the integrand function, the numerical computation of this integral is very efficient. Numerical tests using synthetic data and a densely sampled digital terrain model in the Bavarian Alps prove that the new method is comparable to or even faster than a terrain modeling using polyhedra.