鄱阳湖流域气候变化事实研究

基于江西79个气象站1961-2010年逐日气温和降水观测资料,采用滑动t检验和Mann-kendell法对鄱阳湖流域年平均气温进行突变检验分析,利用线性回归方法分别对鄱阳湖流域气温、降水量、降水日数、降水强度等要素的变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：（1）1961-2010年鄱阳湖流域年平均气温为18.0℃,升温趋势明显,升温率达0.16℃/（10 a）,在1996年出现显著突变。冬季升温趋势最明显,夏季气温虽呈上升趋势,但不显著。（2）流域平均年降水量为1643 mm,呈略增多趋势。20世纪60-80年代和21世纪00年代降水量偏少,90年代降水量相对偏多。最大年降水量出现在1975年,为2149.6 mm;最小年降水量出现在1963年,为1111.6 mm。（3）流域年降水日数总体呈现下降趋势,下降率约为6.9 d/（10 a）。其中,小雨日数下降最为显著,下降率约为7.1 d/（10 a）;中雨日数呈略下降趋势;大雨和暴雨日数呈现略增加趋势。（4）流域年降水强度总体呈现上升趋势,每10 a上升约0.52 mm/d,说明流域降水集中度增大,强降水事件增多。     

Estimation of land production and its response to cultivated land conversion in North China Plain

Food safety and its related influencing factors in China are the hot research topics currently, and cultivated land conversion is one of the significant factors influencing food safety in China. Taking the North China Plain as the study area, this paper examines the changes of cultivated land area using satellite images, estimates land productivity from 1985 to 2005 using the model of Estimation System for Land Productivity (ESLP), and analyzes the impact of cultivated land conversion on the land production. Compared with the grain yield data from statistical yearbooks, the results indicate that ESLP model is an effective tool for estimating land productivity. Land productivity in the North China Plain showed a slight decreasing trend from 1985 to 2005, spatially, increased from the north to the south gradually, and the net changes varied in different areas. Cultivated land area recorded a marginal decrease of 8.0 × 10⁵ ha, mainly converted to other land uses. Cultivated land conversion had more significant negative impacts on land production than land productivity did. Land production decreased by about 6.48 × 10⁶ t caused by cultivated land conversion between 1985 and 2005, accounting for 91.9% of the total land production reduction. Although the land productivity increased in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces, it can not offset the overall adverse effects caused by cultivated land conversion. Therefore, there are significant meanings to control the cultivated land conversion and improve the land productivity for ensuring the land production in the North China Plain.     

A land surface data assimilation framework using the land information system: Description and applications

The Land Information System (LIS) is an established land surface modeling framework that integrates various community land surface models, ground measurements, satellite-based observations, high performance computing and data management tools. The use of advanced software engineering principles in LIS allows interoperability of individual system components and thus enables assessment and prediction of hydrologic conditions at various spatial and temporal scales. In this work, we describe a sequential data assimilation extension of LIS that incorporates multiple observational sources, land surface models and assimilation algorithms. These capabilities are demonstrated here in a suite of experiments that use the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and assimilation through direct insertion. In a soil moisture experiment, we discuss the impact of differences in modeling approaches on assimilation performance. Provided careful choice of model error parameters, we find that two entirely different hydrological modeling approaches offer comparable assimilation results. In a snow assimilation experiment, we investigate the relative merits of assimilating different types of observations (snow cover area and snow water equivalent). The experiments show that data assimilation enhancements in LIS are uniquely suited to compare the assimilation of various data types into different land surface models within a single framework. The high performance infrastructure provides adequate support for efficient data assimilation integrations of high computational granularity.     

低风速下海面附近气温场对海气动量通量的影响

实用测的海上和层平均风剖面数据和温度剖面数据，通过数据回归和迭代方法计算出了在不同大气稳定情况下的海面阻力系数。得到了与前人理论计算一致的结论：海面阻力系数随海面大气稳定度的增加而减小，另外，我们还发现：在海面风速小于１３ｍ／ｓ时，不能认为气温剖面外推到海面的值与海面水温的是一致的。这样若用海气温差作为衡量海面上方大气的稳定程度，难于得到上面给出了理结论。这一点同前人的理论计算结果是不相同的。     

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Estimated Green’s function extracted from superconducting gravimeters and seismometers

Estimated Green’s function (EGF) between stations has been extracted from ambient seismic noise, direct surface wave and coda waves. It is also confirmed by laboratory experiments on ultrasonics and theoretical derivations assuming diffusive wave field, equi-partition of modes or random sources on an enclosed surface. This method provides a new approach to study the crust and mantle structure at regional scale, continental scale and global scale. Following the achievements with seismometer records, the reco...     

新生代黄骅坳陷构造伸展、沉积作用和岩浆活动

黄骅坳陷是一典型的张性盆地,其构造主要受西缘向东倾的拆离断层的控制。构造沉降分析显示盆地西部以裂谷沉降为主,而向东热沉降逐渐增大,反映了上地壳的强烈裂谷区与岩石圈深部强烈减薄区发生了错位。沉积作用在裂谷期和热沉降期具明显不同的特点,指示了早期基底快速不均匀的下沉和晚期基底广泛缓慢下沉的过程。玄武岩的形成和演化也与盆地构造发展过程相一致。研究结果表明,黄骅坳陷是在下伏岩石圈上部发生简单剪切和下部发生纯剪切的构造伸展过程中形成的。     

黄骅坳陷新近系馆陶组Ⅲ段辫状河相高分辨率层序分析

以高分辨率层序地层学理论为指导,以野外露头、钻井岩心、测井及地震资料的综合研究为基础,研究了黄骅坳陷新近系馆陶组Ⅲ段的高分辨率层序地层特征,识别出1个长期、两个中期和若干个短期基准面旋回层序。其中短期、中期旋回都可分为向上“变深”非对称型和向上“变深”复“变浅”对称型两类。深入探讨了不同结构类型和充填样式的各级次基准面旋回层序对储层的控制作用,认为储集砂体主要发育于长期及中期基准面旋回上升的早期。     

乳山湾邻近海域波浪特征要素规律研究

基于高分辨率MASNUM第三代海浪模式并根据Yuan等(2009)提出的波浪破碎统计物理模型,对乳山湾外海2008年各个季节波浪特征要素(有效波高和跨零周期等)与波浪破碎参数(白冠覆盖率、卷入深度和破碎能量损耗率)进行了数值模拟。利用Janson-1卫星高度计观测资料对有效波高模拟结果进行了检验,平均误差在0.17m左右。模拟结果显示,该海域波浪参数具有明显的季节变化特征,在2008-08乳山湾邻近海域受大风天气过程影响期间,有效波高在1.0~1.8m,破碎参数变化显著,白冠覆盖率最大达4.5%,卷入深度在1.5m以上,相应的破碎能量损耗率量值在6~11kg/s3。结果表明,波浪破碎过程对该区域海洋动力环境有着重要影响,是造成乳山湾口表层高溶解氧的可能机制之一。     

磁性下界面的正则化反演方法

根据磁异常反演磁性介质下界面,属于非线性问题,一般很难直接求解.本文采用将非线性问题线性化措施,建立起线性离散磁模型,然后应用线性规划的正则算法,设计了迭代求解方案.该方法不要求已知界面起伏的平均深度,只要求假定界面是连续的及磁性沿横向变化.算法便于对解施行物理约束,具有收敛快,精度高的特点.