Dynamic selection of emergency plans of geological disaster based on case-based reasoning and prospect theory

Natural Hazards - The Three Gorges reservoir area in the Yangtze River economic belt has frequent geological disasters. To assist decision-makers make effective emergency decisions based on their...     

Morphological response of tidal marshes,flats and channels of the Outer Yangtze River mouth to a major storm

Systematic morphological changes of the coastline of the outer Yangtze River mouth in response to storms versus calm weather were documented by daily surveys of tidal marshes and flats between April 1999 and May 2001 and by boat surveys offshore during this and earlier periods. The largest single event during 1999 to 2001 was Typhoon Paibaian, which eroded the unvegetated tidal flat and lower marsh and led to accretion on the middle-to-upper marsh and in the subtidal channel. The greatest erosion of 21 cm occurred at the border between the marsh and the unvegetated flat due to the landward retreat of the marsh edge during the storm. Strong waves on the flats increased suspended sediment concentration by 10–20 times. On the upper marsh, where the frequency of submergence by astronomical tides is only 3%, Typhoon Paibian led to 4 cm of accretion, accounting for 57% of the net accretion observed over the 2-yr study. Typhoon Paibian led to 4 cm of accretion, accounting for 57% of the net accretion observed over the 2-yr study. Typhoon Paibian and other large storms in the 1990s caused over 50 cm of accretion along the deep axis of the river mouth outlet channel. During calm weather, when hydrodynamic energy was dominated by tides, deposition was centered on the unvegetated flats and lower, marsh with little deposition on the high marsh and erosion in the subtidal channel. Depositional recovery of the tidal flat from typhoon-induced erosion took only several days, whereas recovery of the subtidal channel by erosion took several weeks. A conceptual model for the morphological responses of tidal marshes, flats, and subtidal channels to storms and calm weather is proposed such that sediment continually moves from regions of highest near-bed energy towards areas of lower energy.     

周期基数插值对偶尺度函数和对偶小波

在对二维周期基数插值小波的尺度函数和小波函数研究的基础上,对二维周期基数插值小波的对偶尺度函数和对偶小波进行了研究,得到了一系列重要的结论。     

东海八角亭海洋深井台地震监测

上海市地震局设计、建设的中国第1个真正意义上的海洋深井地震观测台位于东海石油平台上,井深780 m,安装2套JDF-1型地震计进行观测。通过对陆域地震台站记录的大地震进行分析比较、方位校准,采用单台地震分析方法,确定2009年5月—2011年6月记录到的136个地震参数,总结海域地震波形特征。结果表明,该海域地震活动性特征与当地地质构造一致。     

黄海温度锋及断面水温分布数值预报试验硏究

自Simpson和Hunter(1974)在对夏季爱尔兰海的研究中提出潮混合控制潮汐锋的概念以来,人们相继在许多强潮浅水区发现了潮汐锋现象,并做了大量的研究工作,对锋区的流场结构等特征,以及潮汐锋对周围环境的影响等有了更多的了解。在我国,赵保仁(1985)首先提出黄海存在潮汐锋现象,认为冷水团的温度锋可看作是底层的潮汐锋,并可利用近最大潮流流速计算层化参量来确定黄海潮汐锋(从而亦即温度锋)的位置,而且还可以根据已有调查资料和卫星图片揭示它的一些变化规律。他与合作者的一系列研究工作表明:黄海的潮混合及潮汐锋现象对黄海的温盐和水团分布、层化现象、强温跃层的分布变化、黄海的水平和垂直环流有重要影响和直接关系,进而可以推测黄海的潮混合及潮汐锋现象对黄海的物质输运、生态环境等有着重要的影响,因此研究黄海潮混合形成的温度锋和断面温度分布的数值预报方法是非常有必要的。 以往关于潮汐锋的数值研究大多数是诊断模式,用于求解潮汐锋形成以后锋区的环流结构等,而用数值方法模拟潮汐锋的形成和演化的工作却很少。在国外,只有王东平等(Wang et al.,1990)用二维模型,对垂直涡动扩散和粘性系数采用Munk-Anderson格式与湍流封闭格式嵌套的方法以反映边界层的作用,利用实测的大气强迫力和数值计算的潮流模拟了英国Celtic海的潮汐锋和海洋层化的变化问题,尚未涉及潮汐锋的形成过程。在国内,Bi和Zhao(1993)用一个二维数值模式对黄海34°N的潮汐锋进行了模拟,较好地模拟了从4月到8月潮汐锋的形成和演化过程。在此基础上,我们将进一步利用潮流分布及海面的热量和动量输入条件,以垂直均匀状态为初始条件,模拟黄海各主要断面的温度分布、温度锋和温跃层在增温期的形成和演化过程。     

三维电阻率成像技术的研究

电成像、电测深、电剖面法是目前3种最基本的电阻率探测技术.三维探测的观测系统主要有地表和钻井-地表这两种不同类型的测量.前者的电极阵列成矩形网格状,多采用单极-单极观测装置以增大探测深度,技术难点在于远电极的设置往往会带来难以消除的地电噪音,限制了单点电位测量的精度和应用范围;后者在油田生产的中后期的分层注水以及核废物注浆处理过程中,需要确定流体或者浆片的运移与分布,取深钻井的钢套管作为一个供电电极,形成垂直线电流源,再以钻井为中心对地表的环状网格进行二极或三极测量.可以取得视电阻率和自电位两种测量,得到三维电阻率和异常电荷概率分布的图像.     

Mechanical properties of calcareous silts in a hydraulic fill island-reef

Abstract

The mechanical characteristics of calcareous silt interlayers play an important role in the stability of island-reef foundations. Direct shear and consolidation tests were performed to study the relationship between the mechanical properties and the physical parameters of calcareous silt. Based on the consolidation test results and analysis of the settling examples, different calculation methods for soil settling were compared. The results show the following. (1) The relationship between the cohesion and water content of calcareous silt can be represented by an M-shaped curve. The water contents corresponding to the two peaks of the M-type curve increase with increasing dry density. (2) When the dry density is less than 1.33?g/cm³, increasing the density significantly improves the internal friction angle of calcareous silts. When the dry density of the calcareous silt is greater than 1.33?g/cm³, the internal friction angle is affected by both the dry density and the water content. (3) The shear strength decreases when the water content exceeds the optimum level. (4) The compressive modulus of calcareous silt is larger than that of terrigenous silt. Specifically, it decreases with decreasing dry density and increasing water content. (5) The stepwise loading method should be used to estimate the soil settling before fill engineering construction.     

一颗罕见的金丝猫眼宝石的鉴定

一颗蛋圆形的猫眼宝石,经采用无损伤鉴定研究,确定为天然顽火辉石——金丝猫眼石。其特征为:重1.38g,呈茶褐色,玻璃光泽,Hv(50)1145kg/mm~2(莫氏硬度7级),具平行细密纹理,猫眼光学效应,明显的多色性及平行消光。电子探针分析(％):SiO_2 61.11,MgO 33.71,FeO 3.78,总量为98.60。化学式为(Mg_(1.72) Fe_(0.11))_(1.83)[Si_(2.08)O_6]。     

雷电定位系统与人工观测雷暴日数统计比较

为了利用雷电定位系统 (lightning location system,LLS) 资料统计人工观测雷暴日数,采用湖北省2007—2012年LLS监测资料,选取25个气象站为圆心,统计其不同监测半径 (r) 圆区域内LLS监测的雷电日数,并与人工观测雷暴日数进行比较。结果表明:r≤7 km时,LLS监测平均年雷电日数小于人工观测平均年雷暴日数;r≥8 km时, LLS监测平均年雷电日数大于人工观测平均年雷暴日数;r=22 km圆区域内年平均雷电日数可替代最大年雷暴日数。根据r=7 km,r=8 km圆区域内LLS监测的年雷电日数、年平均地闪密度资料,分别采用直接替代法、地闪密度法和该文提出的二元法计算年雷暴日数,结果显示:二元法效果最好。二元法计算的2007—2012年25个站平均年雷暴日数与人工观测相等,平均差异为7.4%;二元法计算的2013年年雷暴日数与人工观测相差0.8 d,平均差异为12.3%。