探空观测黑名单检查在变分同化系统中的应用

针对探空观测资料使用造成的某些区域GRAPES分析场存在虚假的高、低压系统问题,该文通过对比全球探空资料的位势高度观测与NCEP分析场,统计站点中观测质量较差的时次出现频数,确定探空位势高度观测黑名单。研究表明:500 hPa在印度地区、北大西洋和南极洲附近的探空位势高度观测与NCEP分析场的均方根误差在30 gpm以上的站点较多,且位势高度观测不可靠观测比率为20%以上的站点主要集中这些区域,以上观测站均列入黑名单。文中在GRAPES全球三维变分分析场的质量控制中加入探空位势高度观测黑名单检查,通过6 h分析预报循环试验表明:探空位势高度观测黑名单检查能有效提高分析场质量,GRAPES位势高度分析场在南极洲附近和印度地区有所改善。     

Signal acquisition of Luojia-1A low earth orbit navigation augmentation system with software defined receiver

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite navigation signal can be used as an opportunity signal in the case of a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) outage, or as ...     

Response of evapotranspiration and water availability to the changing climate in Northern Eurasia

We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climate models examined, the US Southwest including California and the southern Great Plains was consistently found to be the most vulnerable. For most of the US, the largest contributions to changes in vulnerability come from changes in supply. However, for some areas of the West changes in vulnerability are caused mainly by changes in demand. These changes in supply and demand result mainly from changes in evapotranspiration rather than from changes in precipitation. Importantly, changes in vulnerability from projected changes in the standard deviations of precipitation and evapotranspiration are of about the same magnitude or larger than those from changes in the corresponding means over most of the US, except in large areas of the Great Plains, in central California and southern and central Texas.     

内蒙古莫力达瓦旗哈达阳绿泥石白云母构造片岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄及其地质意义

嫩江—黑河构造带地处松嫩地块与兴安地块的结合部位,一直以来是业内学者关注的焦点。在构造带内内蒙古莫力达瓦旗哈达阳一带野外实地调研过程中,发现一套变质变形程度与周围地质体差异很大的地层。岩石组合为绿泥石白云母构造片岩、二云母微晶片岩、黝帘白云糜棱片岩等。采用LA-ICP-MS技术获得的绿泥石白云母构造片岩中锆石U-Pb年龄为413.9Ma±2.7Ma。通过分析区域地质演化历史及不同时代地质体特征,认为沿红山梁—哈达阳—依克特一带存在一条构造混杂堆积岩带,这套强变形岩石应为构造混杂岩带的一部分,其原岩形成时代为早泥盆世,后期构造定位应与嫩江—黑河构造带最后于早石炭世末拼合作用有关。     

山西阳泉矿区煤层气分层排采分析

煤层气开发过程中,由于各煤层及其顶底板之间物性特征等方面的差异,易导致层间干扰,影响煤层气产能。阳泉矿区煤层气资源储量丰富,主要可采煤层有3#、8#、9#、15#煤层,其中3#煤层为局部可采煤层。以该区YQ-191和YQ-359井为例,通过分析8#、9#、15#煤层在渗透率、储层压力、煤层厚度、含气量、埋藏深度、水文地质条件的差异,发现,YQ-191井8#、9#的各项参数较为接近,层间干扰小,适宜合层开采;YQ-359井8#、15#煤层渗透率与储层压力相差较大,层间干扰严重,合层开采严重影响15#煤层的产能,该井8#、15#煤层不适宜合层开采。     

Influence of relative density,particle shape,and stress path on the plane strain compression behavior of granular materials

Two types of stress path-controlled plane strain compression tests were performed on both loose and dense specimens of angular and sub-angular sands and two rounded glass beads with different particle sizes. Digital image correlation method was used to analyze local deformation developments, especially shear band patterns. The material behavior in response to shearing has been found to be dependent on the relative density, particle shape, and stress path. The results of analysis on local deformation developments showed that the onset of shear bands occurred prior to their peak strengths in both dense and loose specimens. The growth rates of local maximum shear strain along a shear band were approximately consistent with an increasing global axial strain after the onset of shear band. The shear band width was influenced by both the mean particle size and the particle shape. The measured shear band inclination angles were in between those estimated by Coulomb’s and Roscoe’s formulas.     

MONITORING POLYNUCLEAR AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS IN SEDIMENT POREWATER BY SPMD

A new mimic biological Semi-permeable Membrane Device (SPMD) introduced for sampling organic pollutants yielded satisfactory results when it was frrst used as a passive sampler to concentrate and determine 16 kinds of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by means of capillary GC on an HP 5890 GC-FID in coastal sediment perewater. The concentration of PAHs in sediment porewater for naphthalene(N), acenaphthlene(AL), acenaphthene (AE), fluorene (F), phenaphthene(P), anthracene(A), fluoranthene(FA), pyrene(Py), benzo[a]anthracene(B[a]A), chrysene(Chr), benzo[b] fluor- anthene(B[b]F), benzo[k]fluoranthene(B[k]F), benzo[a]pyrene(B[a]P),indeno[1,2,3,-cd]-Pyrene(I[123]P), dibenz[a,h]anthracene(D[ab]A) and benzo[g,h,i] perylene(B[ghi]P) were:50.36, under detection limits(UD), 18.19, 8.41, 8.40, 1.44, UD, 8.01, 524.15, 168.47, 50.13,123.66, 63.48, 27.40, 82.04 and 58,81 ng/L, respectively.     

复杂性科学在页岩油气勘探和研究中的应用

复杂性科学是当今世界科学重要的前沿领域之一。为了促进复杂性科学的基本理论和方法在页岩油气勘探和研究领域的广泛应用,笔者等重点围绕地质系统复杂性的基本内涵,从地质系统构成单元的多重耦合和相互作用、地质作用的复杂时空结构、地质作用过程中的自组织临界过程动力学以及矿产资源形成在混沌边缘等方面,介绍了地质系统复杂性研究的基本理论和研究方法。将上述地质系统复杂性理论运用于页岩油气系统,探讨了利用复杂系统的总体特征通过局域组成单元相互作用的“涌现”机制,来解决目前页岩储层中存在的如何利用微观局域精细表征进行客观刻画宏观储层特征问题;分析了利用地质作用的时空结构理论,建立页岩储层非均质性的静态和分形时空结构的方法;在整体论思想指导下,根据地质系统在混沌边缘分形生长这一规律,探讨了页岩油气在自组织临界态的混沌边缘富集预测方法。复杂性科学的理论和方法,必将在页岩油气的勘探研究中发挥越来越重要的作用。     

汶川县绵虒镇板子沟“8·20”大型泥石流堵河特征及危害性预测

汶川地震后,板子沟曾发生过多次大规模泥石流,尤其是2019年“8·20”泥石流对沟口的道路桥梁以及村寨造成了严重的破坏,将主河道向对岸严重挤压,今后仍存在较大堵河的风险。文章在野外调查以及对泥石流基本特征和形成条件综合分析的基础上,分析了堵河特征,计算了不同频率下泥石流的堵河参数,并预测了各频率下溃决洪水对绵虒镇可能产生的影响。计算结果表明,频率为2％、5％和10％的泥石流造成岷江堵塞的可能性较小,假设发生堵河事件,绵虒镇也不会受到溃坝洪水的危害。频率为1％的泥石流很可能造成主河堵塞。体积约57.38×104 m3的泥石流物质可以到达岷江,形成高度约为51.61 m的堰塞坝。在主河洪水的作用下,堰塞坝发生溃坝,溃坝洪水的峰值流量为5 935.49 m3/s,到达绵虒镇后降至2 312.25 m3/s。由于相应的洪水深度（4.00 m）大于防护堤的高度（3.50 m）,因此溃坝洪水很可能会对绵虒镇防护堤附近民房造成破坏。为今后大型泥石流堵河特征的分析,以及溃决洪水对下游城镇可能造成的影响提供了参考。     

Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies

Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.