Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Daily salinity fluctuation alleviates salt stress on seedlings of the mangrove Bruguiera gymnorhiza

Salinity is a vital factor that regulates leaf photosynthesis and growth of mangroves, and it frequently undergoes large seasonal and daily fluctuations creating a range of environments – oligohaline to hyperhaline. Here, we examined the hypotheses that mangroves benefit opportunistically from low salinity resulting from daily fluctuations and as such, mangroves under daily fluctuating salinity (FS) grow better than those under constant salinity (CS) conditions. We compared growth, salt accumulation, gas exchange, and chlorophyll fluorescence of leaves of mangrove Bruguiera gymnorhiza seedlings growing in freshwater (FW), CS (15 practical salinity units, PSU), and daily FS (0–30 PSU, average of 4.8 PSU) conditions. The traits of FS-treated leaves were measured in seedlings under 15 PSU. FS-treated seedlings had greater leaf biomass than those in other treatment groups. Moreover, leaf photosynthetic rate, capacity to regulate photoelectron uptake/transfer, and leaf succulence were significantly higher in FS than in CS treatment. However, leaf water-use efficiency showed the opposite trend. In addition to higher concentrations of Na⁺ and Cl⁻, FS-treated leaves accumulated more Ca²⁺ and K⁺. We concluded that daily FS can enhance water absorption, photosynthesis, and growth of leaves, as well as alter plant biomass allocation patterns, thereby positively affecting B. gymnorhiza. Mangroves that experience daily FS may increase their adaptability by reducing salt build-up and water deficits when their roots are temporally subjected to low salinity or FW and by absorbing sufficient amounts of Na⁺ and Cl⁻ for osmotic adjustment when their roots are subsequently exposed to saline water.     

Water uptake of riparian plants in the lower Lhasa River Basin,South Tibetan Plateau using stable water isotopes

Riparian plants can adapt their water uptake strategies based on climatic and hydrological conditions within a river basin. The response of cold-alpine riparian trees to changes in water availability is poorly understood. The Lhasa River is a representative cold-alpine river in South Tibet and an under-studied environment. Therefore, a 96 km section of the lower Lhasa River was selected for a study on the water-use patterns of riparian plants. Plant water, soil water, groundwater and river water were measured at three sites for δ¹⁸O and δ²H values during the warm-wet and cold-dry periods in 2018. Soil profiles differed in isotope values between seasons and with the distance along the river. During the cold-dry period, the upper parts of the soil profiles were significantly affected by evaporation. During the warm-wet period, the soil profile was influenced by precipitation infiltration in the upper reaches of the study area and by various water sources in the lower reaches. Calculations using the IsoSource model indicated that the mature salix and birch trees (Salix cheilophila Schneid. and Betula platyphylla Suk.) accessed water from multiple sources during the cold-dry period, whereas they sourced more than 70% of their requirement from the upper 60–80 cm of the soil profile during the warm-wet period. The model indicated that the immature rose willow tree (Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb) accessed 66% of its water from the surface soil during the cold-dry period, but used the deeper layers during the warm-wet period. The plant type was not the dominant factor driving water uptake patterns in mature plants. Our findings can contribute to strategies for the sustainable development of cold-alpine riparian ecosystems. It is recommended that reducing plantation density and collocating plants with different rooting depths would be conducive to optimal plant growth in this environment.     

The June 2013 Alberta catastrophic flooding event – part 2: fine‐scale precipitation and associated features

Data obtained from a variety of sources including the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, weather radars, weather stations and operational numerical weather model analyses were used to address the evolution of precipitation during the June 2013 southern Alberta flood. The event was linked to a mid‐level closed low pressure system to the west of the region and a surface low pressure region initially to its south. This configuration brought warm, moist unstable air into the region that led to dramatic, organized convection with an abundance of lightning and some hail. Such conditions occurred in the southern parts of the region whereas the northern parts were devoid of lightning. Initially, precipitation rates were high (extreme 15‐min rainfall rates up to 102 mm h^?1 were measured) but decreased to lower values as the precipitation shifted to long‐lived stratiform conditions. Both the convective and stratiform precipitation components were affected by the topography. Similar flooding events, such as June 2002, have occurred over this region although the 2002 event was colder and precipitation was not associated with substantial convection over southwest Alberta. Copyright © 2016 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of a coarse interlayer on seawater intrusion and contaminant migration in coastal aquifers

Vertical 2D slice laboratory experiments were carried out in homogenous and layered sand tanks to elucidate the effects of a highly permeable (coarse‐grained sand) interlayer on seawater intrusion and transport of contaminants to a coastal sea. Tidal fluctuations produced oscillations in the seawater–freshwater transition zone, fluctuations of the contaminant infiltration rate and a zigzag contaminant plume outline. The seawater wedge became discontinuous at the (vertical) edges of the interlayer because of increased lateral movement of the seawater–freshwater interface within the interlayer. The contaminant plume formed a tail within the interlayer depending on the tidal stage, and similar to the wedge, its movement was accentuated. A simple analytical model that neglected vertical flow reliably predicted steady‐state seawater intrusion into the coastal aquifer. Numerical modeling was used to gain insight into the groundwater hydrodynamics and contaminant migration. The numerical results confirmed the experimental findings, i.e. that a highly permeable interlayer can provide a rapid transit path for contaminants to reach the seaward boundary and that the interlayer amplifies the effects of tidal fluctuations, resulting in wider transition zones for the seawater wedge and contaminant plume. Numerical simulations further showed that, with increasing interlayer hydraulic conductivity, the maximum seawater intrusion distance inside the interlayer increases approximately linearly. For the fixed‐head contaminant injection condition used, the model showed that contaminant infiltration increases approximately logarithmically with increasing interlayer hydraulic conductivity (other factors held fixed). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.