Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions

The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Carboniferous eclogite and garnet–omphacite granulite from northeastern Hainan Island,South China: Implications for the evolution of the eastern Palaeo‐Tethys

High‐P (HP) eclogite and associated garnet–omphacite granulite have recently been discovered in the Mulantou area, northeastern Hainan Island, South China. These rocks consist mainly of garnet, omphacite, hornblende, quartz and rutile/ilmenite, with or without zoisite and plagioclase. Textural relationships, mineral compositions and thermobarometric calculations demonstrate that the eclogite and garnet–omphacite granulite share the same three‐stage metamorphic evolution, with prograde, peak and retrograde P?T conditions of 620–680°C and 8.7–11.1 kbar, 820–860°C and 17.0–18.2 kbar, and 700–730°C and 7.1–8.5 kbar respectively. Sensitive high‐resolution ion microprobe U–Pb zircon dating, coupled with the identification of mineral inclusions in zircon, reveals the formation of mafic protoliths before 355 Ma, prograde metamorphism at c. 340–330 Ma, peak to retrograde metamorphism at c. 310–300 Ma, and subsequent pegmatite intrusion at 295 Ma. Trace element geochemistry shows that most of the rocks have a MORB affinity, with initial ε_Nd values of +2.4 to +6.7. As with similar transitional eclogite–HP granulite facies rocks in the thickened root in the European Variscan orogen, the occurrence of relatively high P?T metamorphic rocks of oceanic origin in northeastern Hainan Island suggests Carboniferous oceanic subduction leading to collision of the Hainan continental block, or at least part of it, with the South China Block in the eastern Palaeo‐Tethyan tectonic domain.     

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2 °C, followed by stabilisation to 4 °C.     

Stratigraphy and correlation of Mesoproterozoic rocks associated with Mohar cauldron,Shivpuri district,Madhya Pradesh

A circular structure, termed as cauldron of volcanic origin, was located near Mohar village in Shivpuri district (M.P.) in the year 2000. Subsequently, the same structure was called as Dhala structure of impact origin. There may be debate over the origin and evolution of this circular structure, but it is characterized by a unique lithological set-up within the Bundelkhand craton. The circular structure is defined by annular disposition of igneous and sedimentary rocks. This includes a set of felsic volcanic rocks and associated breccias named as Mohar Formation, exposed in the outer rim of the circular structure. The inner part of the circular structure has sedimentary sequence, termed as Dhala Formation.The field relations indicate that the Mohar and Dhala foarmations are younger than Bundelkhand granitoid complex but older than Kaimur Group. This period in Indian stratigraphy corresponds to Semri Group which consists of Porcellanite Formation, the rocks of which have formed due to deposition of volcanic ash.The geochronological data and field relations between different litho-units indicate that the Mohar volcanism which generated large volume of volcanic ash was a possible source for the formation of Porcellanite Formation. The deposition of sedimentary sequence in main Vindhyan basin was continued, whereas the volcanic activity in Mohar area continued till H ≈ 1.0 Ga. Since, acid volcanic activity has been reported in different parts of the world at H ≈ 1.0 Ga., it is possible that the Mohar acid volcanic activity is not an isolated event; instead it may be a part of global volcanic activities around H ≈ 1.0 Ga.     

Dump slope stability analysis – A case study

In opencast mining operation, the stability of waste materials stands at high priority from the safety and economic perspective. Poor management of overburden (OB) dump results the instability of slope in an opencast mine. The present paper deals with the stability analysis of dump material of an opencast coal mine at Talcher coal field, Angul district, Odisha, by means of different geotechnical parameters and mineralogical composition affecting the dump slope. The prolonged rainfall in the mining area causes dump failure and loss of valuable life and property. A recent dump failure that occurred in 2013 at Basundhara mines of Mahanadi Coalfields Limited (MCL), Odisha, took 14 lives, and created problems for the mining industry. Most of the dump failure that occurs in the study area are mainly due to increase in pore water pressure as a result of rainfall infiltration. The stability of the waste dump was investigated using the limit equilibrium analysis to suggest an economical, sustainable and safe disposal of the dump in the study area.