基于三参量威布尔分布的潜在震源区强震危险性估计

本文提出了一种基于三参量威布尔分布模型估计潜在震源区强震危险性的方法。选择日本东海-南海地震带为潜在震源区,分别基于强震发震时间间隔服从二参量和三参量的威布尔分布,估计该区强震危险性,结果表明三参量威布尔分布的拟合效果优于二参量威布尔分布。选择马尼拉海沟俯冲带为潜在震源区,基于三参量威布尔分布估计该区强震危险性,结果显示未来10、30和50年该区强震（M≧7.5）复发概率分别为62%、82%和89%,最短发震时间间隔估计为1.70年。     

基于三轴试验的软土震陷简化计算方法研究

本文通过对天津滨海新区典型软土的静、动力学试验,分析了软土残余应变的变化规律,提出了结合地区震陷经验系数的软土震陷简化计算方法,并利用1976年唐山7.8级地震中天津塘沽地区软土震陷观测资料对计算方法进行了验证。结果表明,本方法用于估算自由地表震陷量是可行的,对中小工程中软土震陷量的估算具有一定的参考价值。     

中国南北地震带北段及其周缘地壳厚度与泊松比研究

本文利用中国地震科学探测台阵2013-2015年在南北地震带北段及其周缘架设的673个台站所记录到的远震波形所提取到的接收函数并应用H-κ扫描方法获取了南北地震带北段及其周缘的地壳厚度和泊松比,结果显示研究区地壳厚度从青藏高原东北缘向鄂尔多斯块体逐渐减小,从65 km逐渐减薄至40 km,不同块体之间地壳厚度存在明显差异.祁连造山带西部地壳厚度超过60 km,而东部地壳厚度仅为约50 km左右,表明祁连造山带东、西部地壳增厚变形存在着明显差异.西秦岭造山带地壳厚度从60 km减薄到40 km,其东部具有较薄的地壳厚度可能经历了拆沉.阿拉善块体作为华北克拉通西部块体的一部分,西部地壳厚度约50 km,而东部约45 km,表明阿拉善块体西部由于印度一欧亚板块碰撞也受到了活化改造,其克拉通性质只在其中东部残留.研究区泊松比变化范围为0.20~0.31,平均泊松比约0.25,表明地壳主要由长英质矿物组成,较高的泊松比主要分布在六盘山断裂带和银川一河套地堑.研究结果显示地壳厚度与高程之间具有较好的相关性,表明地壳整体上处于相对均衡的状态,而西秦岭造山带和祁连造山带东部的部分区域地壳可能处于不均衡状态.     

海南岛近海砗磲(Tridacninae)资源时空变化——以蜈支洲岛为例

为了解海南近岸砗磲资源动态变化,于蜈支洲岛周边海域选取5个代表性站位,自2017-2020年采用断面调查的方法,开展了砗磲资源评估、种群数量变化以及其环境相关性分析等,结果显示：（1）各站位砗磲密度为0-30.00×10^-2 ind./m²,且主要分布于3 m水深,在该水深区域,站位3和站位11砗磲密度最高,站位4次之,站位9和站位13最低,统计学分析表明砗磲密度与站位呈显著相关性（P<0.05）。（2）2017年,蜈支洲岛海域四种规格砗磲（壳长<5 cm、5-10 cm、10-15 cm和≥ 15 cm）均有分布,2018-2020年,未发现壳长≥ 15 cm的大规格个体。（3）尽管温度及各水质因子均与砗磲密度相关性不显著（P>0.05）,水体硝酸盐NO₃^-浓度与砗磲密度相关系数最高（0.29）。（4）砗磲主要分布于活珊瑚底质（66.67%）,其次为礁石（24.24%）,砂石底质最低（9.09%）。（5）砗磲外套膜RGB颜色参数值与周边底质颜色存在相关性,空间上,站位3的砗磲外套膜RGB颜色参数值与周边底质颜色相关性高于站位11;时间上,2020年砗磲外套膜颜色与周边底质B值相关系数R高于2017年（0.899 vs.0.712）。研究首次开展了海南岛近岸海域砗磲资源时空动态变化及影响因素研究,其结果可为砗磲资源保护提供数据支持。     

华北克拉通东北部的远震S波走时层析成像研究

华北克拉通是近年来我国地学界研究的热点之一.本文利用布设在华北东北部地区的华北地震科学台阵所记录的远震波形资料,用波形互相关方法拾取了9105条S波走时残差数据,进而用体波走时层析成像方法反演获得了研究区从地表至600 km深度的S波速度结构.所获得的S波层析成像结果表明,华北克拉通中部块体的山西断陷带低速异常一直从地面延伸至上地幔约300 km深处,推测该低速异常体可能与中、新生代的大同火山群的形成与活动有关.研究发现华北东部存在一高速异常体由东部渤中凹陷的地壳一直向西延伸至太行山山前断裂下方地幔转换带410 km附近,推测该高速异常体可能为太平洋板片向西俯冲在华北克拉通东部块体下方地幔过渡带内的滞留.研究结果显示华北克拉通东部的华北盆地表现为高低速相间分布,表明该地区下方的岩石圈发生了破坏,而位于华北克拉通北缘的燕山造山带显示为高速异常,表明燕山造山带下方的岩石圈没有明显的破坏迹象.     

Cross double‐difference inversion for simultaneous velocity model update and microseismic event location

Microseismic monitoring is an approach for mapping hydraulic fracturing. Detecting the accurate locations of microseismic events relies on an accurate velocity model. The one‐dimensional layered velocity model is generally obtained by model calibration from inverting perforation data. However, perforation shots may only illuminate the layers between the perforation shots and the recording receivers with limited raypath coverage in a downhole monitoring problem. Some of the microseismic events may occur outside of the depth range of these layers. To derive an accurate velocity model covering all of the microseismic events and locating events at the same time, we apply the cross double‐difference method for the simultaneous inversion of a velocity model and event locations using both perforation shots and microseismic data. The cross double‐difference method could provide accurate locations in both the relative and absolute sense, utilizing cross traveltime differences between P and S phases over different events. At the downhole monitoring scale, the number of cross traveltime differences is sufficiently large to constrain events locations and velocity model as well. In this study, we assume that the layer thickness is known, and velocities of P‐ and S‐wave are inverted. Different simultaneous inversion methods based on the Geiger's, double‐difference, and cross double‐difference algorithms have been compared with the same input data. Synthetic and field data experiments suggest that combining both perforation shots and microseismic data for the simultaneous cross double‐difference inversion of the velocity model and event locations is available for overcoming the trade‐offs in solutions and producing reliable results.     

Modelling the annual cycle of landfast ice near Zhongshan Station,East Antarctica

A high resolution one-dimensional thermodynamic snow and ice(HIGHTSI) model was used to model the annual cycle of landfast ice mass and heat balance near Zhongshan Station, East Antarctica. The model was forced and initialized by meteorological and sea ice in situ observations from April 2015 to April 2016. HIGHTSI produced a reasonable snow and ice evolution in the validation experiments, with a negligible mean ice thickness bias of(0.003±0.06) m compared to in situ observations. To further examine the impact of different snow conditions on annual evolution of first-year ice(FYI), four sensitivity experiments with different precipitation schemes(0, half, normal, and double) were performed. The results showed that compared to the snow-free case,the insulation effect of snow cover decreased bottom freezing in the winter, leading to 15%–26% reduction of maximum ice thickness. Thick snow cover caused negative freeboard and flooding, and then snow ice formation,which contributed 12%–49% to the maximum ice thickness. In early summer, snow cover delayed the onset of ice melting for about one month, while the melting of snow cover led to the formation of superimposed ice,accounting for 5%–10% of the ice thickness. Internal ice melting was a significant contributor in summer whether snow cover existed or not, accounting for 35%–56% of the total summer ice loss. The multi-year ice(MYI)simulations suggested that when snow-covered ice persisted from FYI to the 10 th MYI, winter congelation ice percentage decreased from 80% to 44%(snow ice and superimposed ice increased), while the contribution of internal ice melting in the summer decreased from 45% to 5%(bottom ice melting dominated).     

Decadal morphological evolution of the mouth zone of the Yangtze Estuary in response to human interventions

The morphology of the Yangtze Estuary has changed substantially at decadal time scales in response to natural processes, local human interference and reduced sediment supply. Due to its high sediment load, the morphodynamic response time of the estuary is short, providing a valuable semi-natural system to evaluate large-scale estuarine morphodynamic responses to interference. Previous studies primarily addressed local morphologic changes within the estuary, but since an overall sediment balance is missing, it remains unclear whether the estuary as a whole has shifted from sedimentation to erosion in response to reduced riverine sediment supply (e.g. resulting from construction of the Three Gorges Dam). In this paper we examine the morphological changes of two large shoals in the mouth zone (i.e. the Hengsha flat and the Jiuduan shoal) using bathymetric data collected between 1953 and 2016 and a series of satellite images. We observe that the two shoals accreted at different rates before 2010 but reverted to erosion thereafter. Human activities such as dredging and dumping contribute to erosion, masking the impacts of sediment source reduction. The effects of local human intervention (such as the construction of a navigation channel) are instantaneous and are likely to have already resulted in new dynamic equilibrium conditions. The morphodynamic response time of the mouth zone to riverine sediment decrease is further suggested to be >30 years (starting from the mid-1980s). Accounting for the different adaptation time scales of various human activities is essential when interpreting morphodynamic changes in large-scale estuaries and deltas. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

江苏盐城盐纺井地球化学异常信息提取及机理分析

依据江苏省盐城市纺织厂井Ca²⁺和Cl^-月均值浓度,利用从属函数和自适应阈值法对该井进行了地球化学异常信息提取与分析;结合波速比和地磁谐波振幅比数据,利用膨胀扩容模式开展了映震机理讨论。结果表明,2008～2016年Ca²⁺浓度出现6次从属函数异常和5次自适应阈值异常,Cl^-浓度出现4次从属函数异常和5次自适应阈值异常,较好地对应了台站200km范围内M_L≥4.0的地震。此外,根据波速比、地磁谐波振幅比和该井地下水地球化学成因等分析结果,判断Ca²⁺、Cl^-浓度在震前的快速上升与深部流体上涌有关。     

Merging multi-source precipitation products or merging their simulated hydrological flows to improve streamflow simulation

Satellite and reanalysis precipitation products are widely utilized for streamflow simulation, which is one critical hydrological application, especially for ungauged regions. Possible ways to improve streamflow simulation are investigated in this study by merging multi-source precipitation products, or directly merging streamflow simulated with different precipitation products. Two satellite-based precipitation products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (3B42 Version 7) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and one reanalysis precipitation product, National Centers for Environment Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) are selected. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to merge multi-source precipitation estimates and streamflow simulations. The results show that merging multi-source precipitation products made little difference to improve streamflow simulation. Merging multi-source streamflow simulations using the BMA generally achieved better performance on streamflow simulation, indicating that this approach is more efficient than merging multi-source precipitation products.