Flood risk assessment in Quzhou City (China) using a coupled hydrodynamic model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE)

Natural Hazards - To evaluate urban flood risk while considering spatial and temporal characteristics, this paper establishes an assessment method based on a coupled hydrodynamic model and a fuzzy...     

欧盟碳减排目标的经济可能性评估

经济发展与能源消耗有着密切的关系,文章通过选取1994年至2009年欧盟27国的人口、经济和能源数据,利用碳排放动力学模型对欧盟关于2050年前削减温室气体排放80-95%的承诺进行预测,并对欧盟目标下的减排情景进行了分析。结果表明：（1）以当前的技术进步速率下,沿最优平稳经济增长路线,到2050年欧盟的碳排放量将为775.608MtC,达不到预定的减排要求;（2）在最优经济增长速度得出总能源消费量的基础上,采用调整能源结构与碳捕捉技术,预期可以达到设定减排80%的任务。其每一期的煤炭占比、石油占比、天然气占比应分别有4%、2.26%、1.23%转移至非碳能源占比,非碳能源的上升速率应达到2.21%/年;（3）若以历史的能源结构转移趋势预测未来的能源结构占比,即使考虑能源利用效率和碳捕捉技术的预期目标,欧盟仍然达不到在2050年的减排目标;（4）考虑欧盟提出的四种减排路径上下限组合,可预计出到2050年欧盟的减排范围在80.51%-87.16%;（5）若欧盟重振工业（特别是制造业）,即使考虑欧盟制定的减排路径,仍存在着达不到减排预期的可能。     

裂隙岩质边坡地下水渗流数值模拟

本文从反倾向岩质高边坡的渗流特征和渗流普遍规律出发,根据渗流力学知识,建立数学模型,通过渗流数值模拟计算分析了渗透压力、水头变化规律以及对岩质边坡稳定性的影响.     

我国浅海滩涂资源开发与对策

我国浅海滩涂开发已成为海洋开发的战场和向深海远洋挺进的桥头堡，但存在管理混乱，资源浪费和破坏严重，争抢资源等海事纠纷上升，海洋劳力素质和劳效下降等问题，应采取优化资源配置，加强政策立法，重视科技投入，强化综合管理等对策，促其健康发展。     

黑河流域土地利用变化对土壤有机碳和全氮储量的影响——元分析（英文）

Land use and cover change(LUCC) is an important indicator of the human-earth system under climate/environmental change,which also serves as a key impact factor of carbon balance,and a major source/sink of soil carbon cycles.The Heihe River Basin(HRB) is known as a typical ecologically fragile area in the arid/semi-arid regions of northwestern China,which makes it more sensitive to the LUCC.However,its sensitivity varies in a broad range of controlling factors,such as soil layers,LUCCs and calculation methods(e.g.the fixed depth method,FD,and the equivalent mass method,ESM).In this study,we performed a meta-analysis to assess the response of soil organic carbon(SOC) and total nitrogen(TN) storage to the LUCC as well as method bias based on 383 sets of SOC data and 148 sets of TN data from the HRB.We first evaluated the calculation methods and found that based on the FD method,the LUCC caused SOC and TN storage to decrease by 17.39% and 14.27%,respectively;while the losses estimated using the ESM method were 19.31% and 18.52%,respectively.The deviations between two methods were mainly due to the fact that the FD method ignores the heterogeneity of soil bulk density(BD),which may underestimate the results subsequently.We then analyzed the response of SOC and TN storage to various types of the LUCC.In particular,when woodland and grassland were converted into cultivated land or other land types,SOC and TN suffered from heavy losses,while other LUCCs had minor influences.Finally,we showed that increasing the depth of the soil layers would reduce the losses of SOC and TN storage.In summary,we identified a series of controlling factors(e.g.soil layer,the LUCC and calculation method) to evaluate the impact of the LUCC on SOC and TN storage in the HRB,which should be considered in future research.     

西太平洋区域二甲硫酸及其他硫化物的模拟研究

本文利用一维光化学模式，以二甲硫醚（ＤｉｍｅｔｈｙｌＳｕｌｆｉｄｅ，简称ＤＭＳ）为源模拟了西太平洋对流层的硫化物循环。ＤＭＳ海－气通量由“ｓｔａｇｎａｎｔ－ｆｉｌｍ”模式进行计算。尽管海洋大气中ＯＣＳ浓度比ＤＭＳ大一个量级，但它对ＳＯ２的贡献很小，ＤＭＳ仍是海洋大气中ＳＯ２的主要源。在大气垂直湍流输送过程中，ＤＭＳ白天与ＯＨ反应，夜间与ＮＯ３反应被氧化成ＳＯ２，ＳＯ２大部分通过非均相转化形成Ｈ２ＳＯ４。模拟结果与ＰＥＭ－ＷＥＳＴ－Ａ观测资料对比，取得了较好的一致性。     

塔里木盆地东北部中—上奥陶统沉积物源与构造背景相关性分析

基于塔里木盆地库鲁克塔格露头区却尔却克山、元宝山和南雅尔当山中—上奥陶统宏观沉积特征分析,结合钻井、地震资料分析,对盆地东北部巨厚的中—上奥陶统碎屑岩沉积物源及其构造背景相关性进行了探讨。中—上奥陶统却尔却克组发育复理石建造,综合重矿物组合、矿物成熟度参数、砂岩主、微量元素、稀土元素和阴极发光等提供的物源信息,反映物源区主要为大陆岛弧和活动大陆边缘构造背景。却尔却克组沉积早期物源区主要来自北部古陆,主要为酸性花岗岩类和变质岩类,却尔却克组沉积中后期,除来自北部的物源外,还有来自东南部阿尔金造山带的火山碎屑物质的加入。中—上奥陶统沉积物源分析为塔里木盆地东北部地区中晚奥陶世构造隆升与沉积充填关系研究提供重要依据。     

An automatic cycle-slip processing method and its precision analysis

On the basis of analyzing and researching the current algorithms of cycle-slip detection and correction, a new method of cycle-slip detection and correction is put forward in this paper, that is, a reasonable cycle-slip detection condition and algorithm with corresponding program COMPRE (COMpass PRE-processing) to detect and correct cycle-slip automatically, compared with GIPSY and GAMIT software, for example, it is proved that this method is effective and credible to cycle-slip detection and correction in GPS data pre-processing.     

An efficient solution of real-time data processing for multi-GNSS network

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are acting as an indispensable tool for geodetic research and global monitoring of the Earth, and they have been rapidly developed over the past few years with abundant GNSS networks, modern constellations, and significant improvement in mathematic models of data processing. However, due to the increasing number of satellites and stations, the computational efficiency becomes a key issue and it could hamper the further development of GNSS applications. In this contribution, this problem is overcome from the aspects of both dense linear algebra algorithms and GNSS processing strategy. First, in order to fully explore the power of modern microprocessors, the square root information filter solution based on the blocked QR factorization employing as many matrix–matrix operations as possible is introduced. In addition, the algorithm complexity of GNSS data processing is further decreased by centralizing the carrier-phase observations and ambiguity parameters, as well as performing the real-time ambiguity resolution and elimination. Based on the QR factorization of the simulated matrix, we can conclude that compared to unblocked QR factorization, the blocked QR factorization can greatly improve processing efficiency with a magnitude of nearly two orders on a personal computer with four 3.30 GHz cores. Then, with 82 globally distributed stations, the processing efficiency is further validated in multi-GNSS (GPS/BDS/Galileo) satellite clock estimation. The results suggest that it will take about 31.38 s per epoch for the unblocked method. While, without any loss of accuracy, it only takes 0.50 and 0.31 s for our new algorithm per epoch for float and fixed clock solutions, respectively.     

基于数值解与解析解耦合的SSI体系地震反应分析方法

基于子结构分析方法,提出了土-结构相互作用体系中数值解和解析解耦合的地震反应分析方法。此方法中,数值解是用有限元方法来模拟上部结构的非线性动力行为;而弹性结构-刚性基础-半无限大弹性地基中频域内的解析解,是通过离散时间递归滤波方法得到时域内的解来等效,且在整个体系中,利用土、结构两个子结构边界上的力和位移协调求解。本文提出的方法用有限元程序Opensees来实现,并用于一个线弹性单层框架结构的动力分析中。这种耦合的分析方法得到的结果,与土-结构相互作用单自由度体系的解析解进行了比较,验证此方法的精度、稳定性和工程实用性。