博格达造山带东段芨芨台子地区早二叠世双峰式火山岩地球化学特征及其地质意义

博格达造山带东段芨芨台子地区早二叠世玄武岩和中酸性火山岩在时空上构成双峰式火山岩组合,其岩石类型主要为亚碱性玄武岩和流纹岩,主体属钙碱性系列。玄武岩SiO2含量为47.70%~51.71%,TiO2含量(1.26%~1.52%)略高于N型大洋中脊玄武岩,高Al(Al2O3=14.06%~20.93%),富Na贫K(Na2O/K2O=2.34~28.36),低Mg(MgO=2.99%~8.62%,Mg#为27~52),表明其玄武岩浆发生过明显的橄榄石和辉石的分离结晶作用;玄武岩轻稀土元素略微富集,Eu异常不明显(δEu=0.85~1.02),相对富集Rb、Ba、P等大离子亲石元素,亏损Nb、Ta、Sr、Ti等不相容元素。火山岩地球化学特征表明,研究区玄武质岩浆来自于亏损岩石圈地幔的部分熔融,且受到一定程度的地壳物质混染,显示了板内玄武岩的地球化学特征形成于陆内伸展环境。流纹岩具有较高的SiO2(73.58%~75.45%)和全碱(Na2O+K2O=8.56%~8.79%)含量,以及较低的TiO2(0.12%~0.18%)、Al2O3(12.77%~13.24%)和MgO(平均为0.21%)含量;显示右倾负斜率稀土配分模式,Eu负异常明显(δEu为0.52~0.70),显著富集Rb、Ba、Th等大离子亲石元素,强烈亏损Nb、Ta、Sr、P、Ti等高场强元素,具有A型花岗岩的地球化学特征,为后碰撞伸展环境下底侵玄武岩浆结晶分异的产物。博格达造山带东部芨芨台子地区双峰式火山岩的地球化学特征表明,该套火山岩应形成于碰撞后伸展环境,同时获得流纹岩锆石U-Pb年龄为(294.2±1.3)Ma,表明该套火山岩形成于早二叠世早期。这一发现进一步证实了研究区在历经石炭纪汇聚碰撞事件后进入二叠纪后碰撞伸展的演化时期,为进一步理解博格达地区晚古生代构造格局及板块构造体制提供了重要的地质依据。     

Impacts of land use change and groundwater management on long-term nitrate-nitrogen and chloride trends in groundwater of Jeju Island,Korea

Impacts of land use changes and groundwater management actions on groundwater quality were evaluated at the island scale with spatiotemporal trends of NO₃-N and Cl concentrations in groundwater of Jeju Island, Korea. The temporal trends from 1993 to 2012 in the concentrations of NO₃-N and Cl from more than 3900 wells were estimated using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope analysis and compared with the land use change trend for the period 1995–2009. The results indicate that the upward trends in NO₃-N were associated with the expansion of agricultural lands, whereas Cl trends were considered to be affected by other factors in addition to the land use changes. In the mid-mountainous region, the deterioration in the groundwater quality by the both NO₃-N and Cl was expected due to the continuous expansion of agricultural lands. In the lowland area, the NO₃-N and Cl components showed different trends depending on the regions. In the eastern area, increasing trends in NO₃-N were observed due to the development of new agricultural areas, while the Cl concentration was observed to decrease as a result of the regulation on groundwater extraction to reduce seawater intrusion. Our study highlights that a comprehensive interpretation of trends in NO₃-N and Cl and land use changes for long-term periods can provide useful insights to prepare for suitable groundwater management plans in the whole island perspective.     

华北区域冰雹天气分型及云系特征

基于地面加密观测资料、FY-2E静止气象卫星观测资料和NCEP分析资料,选取2010—2012年华北区域内27次冰雹过程,按大气环流背景、主要影响系统和云系的云型特征等将其分为冷涡云系尾部型、低涡槽前型和偏北气流控制型3种类型。分析结果表明:3种天气型下冰雹对流云系特征存在差异,但90%以上的冰雹过程发生在对流云团的快速发展阶段中,降雹集中出现于准圆形或椭圆形对流云团边缘或带状对流云系的传播前沿区域,对应于云顶亮温梯度的大值区。在掌握背景环境的前提下,综合分析红外图像中对流系统的发展演变、水汽图像暗带和暗区变化等信息,对冰雹的监测和预警有一定的参考价值。定量统计分析表明,大的亮温梯度值 (不低于8 ℃/0.05°) 是辅助判断冰雹能否发生的重要参量,而当冰雹云同时具备低云顶亮温和大亮温梯度的情况下,更有利于大于10 mm大冰雹的发生。     

梅雨锋的典型结构、多样性和多尺度特征

在天气尺度梅雨锋的天气学定义基础上,利用GMS-5静止卫星红外云图、常规气象探空资料、NCEP再分析与最终分析资料对2002年长江流域典型梅雨期6月26—28日和二度梅期间7月23日、1998年5月梅雨与7月二度梅共4个梅雨锋个例进行了分析与比较,归纳了梅雨锋结构多样性;并着重对典型梅雨期的梅雨锋发展过程、水平以及垂直结构进行了多种物理量场(包括风场、温度场、急流、锋区、假相当位温、散度、垂直速度、静力稳定度等)的综合分析。结果表明,不同的个例,不同的地区和时期,一次梅雨过程的不同阶段,梅雨锋的结构和性质都有可能不同,它可以从比较接近极锋的性质过渡到接近赤道锋的性质。在水平结构上梅雨锋是在高、低纬度不同尺度的环流系统共同作用下形成的,从而造成了梅雨锋结构具有丰富的多样性。对典型梅雨锋结构进行综合分析表明梅雨锋对流层中下层锋面由强假相当位温水平梯度形成;梅雨锋南侧为暖湿气团、北侧为变性气团;梅雨锋南面为西南季风、北面为偏东气流;梅雨锋的上升运动和强降水主要发生在梅雨锋的前沿;梅雨锋上方对流层上半部存在与副热带高空急流相配合的高空副热带锋;对流层上部的高空热带东风与副热带高空西风急流构成了梅雨锋降水的高空辐散流场。根据典型期梅雨锋以及二度梅倾斜型梅雨锋的对流层上、中、下水平环流特征,给出了梅雨锋的多尺度概念模型,主要包括中低纬度系统相互作用、对流层高层的行星尺度的环流系统副热带高空西风急流、高空热带东风急流与南亚高压、对流层中层的副热带高压与北方的短波槽以及对流层低层的行星尺度季风和切变线。     

珠江三角洲秋季大气边界层温度和风廓线观测研究

根据2004年10月珠江三角洲3个代表性观测点大气边界层观测资料, 分析了珠江三角洲秋季大气边界层温度和风廓线特征。结果表明:珠江三角洲秋季气温递减率较低, 逆温出现频率较高, 强度较弱, 海风使珠江口贴地逆温的出现时间推迟、低空逆温的出现频率增加。珠江三角洲秋季受多种局地环流影响, 边界层内风廓线比较复杂, 晚上城市群与非城市群地区风向有明显差别; 城市群和珠江口多次分别观测到城市热岛环流和海风环流。     

杭州L波段和59-701高空探测系统资料对比分析

为比较L波段高空探测系统和59-701高空探测系统的资料异同,采用平均差、均方差比较的方法分析了杭州站平行观测一个月资料的温压湿资料,比较其异同及产生原因,为更好利用高空探测资料、改进L波段高空探测系统提供参考。通过比较发现:L波段高空探测系统比59-701高空探测系统所测的温度、高度资料更稳定、离散率更小,对提高预报准确率有利。两套系统的温度差值在70 hPa层出现明显拐点,其原因有待进一步研究。     

Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”

Carbon emissions—and hence fossil fuel combustion—must decline rapidly if warming is to be held below 1.5 or 2 °C. Yet fossil fuels are so deeply entrenched in the broader economy that a rapid transition poses the challenge of significant transitional disruption. Fossil fuels must be phased out even as access to energy services for basic needs and for economic development expands, particularly in developing countries. Nations, communities, and workers that are economically dependent on fossil fuel extraction will need to find a new foundation for livelihoods and revenue. These challenges are surmountable. In principle, societies could undertake a decarbonization transition in which they anticipate the transitional disruption, and cooperate and contribute fairly to minimize and alleviate it. Indeed, if societies do not work to avoid that disruption, a decarbonization transition may not be possible at all. Too many people may conclude they will suffer undue hardship, and thus undermine the political consensus required to undertake an ambitious transition. The principles and framework laid out here are offered as a contribution to understanding the nature of the potential impacts of a transition, principles for equitably sharing the costs of avoiding them, and guidance for prioritizing which fossil resources can still be extracted.     

On the Correlation between Convective Plume Updrafts and Downdrafts,Lidar Reflectivity and Depolarization Ratio

We question the correlation between vertical velocity (w) on the one hand and the occurrence of convective plumes in lidar reflectivity (i.e. range corrected backscatter signal Pz ²) and depolarization ratio (Δ) on the other hand in the convective boundary layer (CBL). Thermal vertical motion is directly investigated using vertical velocities measured by a ground-based Doppler lidar operating at 2 μm. This lidar provides also simultaneous measurements of lidar reflectivity. In addition, a second lidar 200 m away provides reflectivities at 0.53 and 1 μm and depolarization ratio at 0.53 μm. The time series from the two lidars are analyzed in terms of linear correlation coefficient (ρ). The main result is that the plume-like structures provided by lidar reflectivity within the CBL as well as the CBL height are not a clear signature of updrafts. It is shown that the lidar reflectivity within the CBL is frequently anti-correlated (ρ (w, Pz ² )) with the vertical velocity. On the contrary, the correlation coefficient between the depolarization ratio and the vertical velocity ρ (w, Δ ) is always positive, showing that the depolarization ratio is a fair tracer of updrafts. The importance of relative humidity on the correlation coefficient is discussed. An erratum to this article can be found at     

支持向量机与卡尔曼滤波集合的西太平洋副热带高压数值预报误差修正

基于T106数值预报产品资料,提出了支持向量机和卡尔曼滤波相结合的方法来进行夏季西太平洋副热带高压数值预报的误差修正与预报优化.首先采用支持向量机方法建立了西太平洋副热带高压面积指数的误差修正模型.基于支持向量机预报优化模型尽管有比较好的拟合精度和预报效果,但与实际副热带高压指数尚有一定的差异.究其原因,除预报对象(副热带高压)本身比较复杂、模型优化因子不够充分以及数值预报误差自身的随机性以外,优化模型的输入、输出基本上是一个静态映射结构,因此前一时刻的预测误差难以得到有效的反馈、调整和修正.为考虑前一时刻预报误差的反馈信息,动态跟踪副高的变化趋势,随后引入卡尔曼滤波方法建立支持向量机-卡尔曼滤波模型,对支持向量机模型的输出结果作进一步的调整和优化.试验结果表明,该方法模型的预报优化效果优于T106数值预报产品以及单纯的神经网络修正模型和卡尔曼滤波修正模型的优化效果,能够较为客观、有效地修正西太平洋副热带高压指数的数值预报误差,改进和优化西太平洋副热带高压的数值预报效果.该方法为副热带高压等复杂天气系统和要素场预报提供了一种新的思路,表现出较好的应用前景.     

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