东半球500hPa闭合低压系统的统计分析

通过分析５００ｈＰａ东半球闭合低压系统，研究其气候规律。低压活动次数有年际、月际、季际变化。低压活动于中高纬度带，主要集中于两大地区，第一区是西太平洋及大陆东岸，第二区是东欧地区。第一区中心夏季向西移到大陆上，强度增大，对中国气候有重要作用。低压中心高度值的频数分布是双峰型。低压生命期比阻塞高压还长些。强低压主要出现在大陆高纬地带和西太平洋。强发展的低压多数出现在西太平洋。亚洲低压移动路径有两条，一条从西西伯利亚北部到库页岛，一条从咸海东移到库页岛     

Copula-based risk evaluation of droughts across the Pearl River basin, China

Daily precipitation data for the period of 1960–2005 from 42 precipitation gauging stations in the Pearl River basin were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test and copula functions. The standardized precipitation index method was used to define drought episodes. Primary and secondary return periods were also analyzed to evaluate drought risks in the Pearl River basin as a whole. Results indicated that: (1) in general, the drought tendency was not significant at a 95 % confidence level. However, significant drought trends could be found in November, December, and January and significant wetting trends in June and July. The drought severity and drought durations were not significant at most of the precipitation stations across the Pearl River basin; (2) in terms of drought risk, higher drought risk could be observed in the lower Pearl River basin and lower drought risk in the upper Pearl River basin. Higher risk of droughts of longer durations was always corresponding to the higher risk of droughts with higher drought severity, which poses an increasing challenge for drought management and water resources management. When drought episodes with higher drought severity occurred in the Pearl River basin, the regions covered by higher risk of drought events were larger, which may challenge the water supply in the lower Pearl River basin. As for secondary return periods, results of this study indicated that secondary return periods might provide a more robust evaluation of drought risk. This study should be of merit for water resources management in the Pearl River basin, particularly the lower Pearl River basin, and can also act as a case study for determining regional response to drought changes as a result of global climate changes.     

江西省冬季气温异常与区域海温的关联

利用1960-2010年江西省81个台站月平均气温观测资料和NOAA全球月平均海表温度资料(ERSST-V3),分析了江西省冬季气温异常与海温异常的相互联系,并运用超前-滞后相关分析和奇异值分解(SVD)方法初步探讨了关键区海温异常之间的相互作用.结果表明:①影响江西省冬季气温异常的海温关键区和关键时段分别为同期印度洋(10°S～20°N,54°～90°E)、同期西北太平洋(20°～40°N,120°～180°E)和前期8-9月北大西洋中部(24°～44°N,20°～60°W)海域;②西北太平洋关键区暖水年预示暖冬年好于印度洋区,而印度洋区冷水年预示冷冬年稍好于西北太平洋区,冬季西北太平洋与印度洋海温异常可以修正前期8-9月北大西洋中部海温异常对江西省冬季气温的影响.     

岩浆流体对冲绳海槽海底成矿热水系统的可能贡献

海底火山活动区成矿热液流体来源长期存在争议,尽管海水来源说更为流行,但本文提供的下列证据表明,来自长曲质岩浆的流体对冲绳海槽现代活动热水成矿系统有较大贡献：（１）冲绳海槽ＪＡＤＥ热水区出现异常高热流,其下方１￣２ｋｍ处存在浅位长英质岩浆房;（２）ＣＯ２、烃类、Ｈ２等气体在热水成矿体系中极度富集甚至形成独立气流,与热水流体共存。气体的碳、氦同位素资料表明其来自长英质岩浆本系;（３）ＪＡＤＥ成矿热水系     

坡面溅蚀发生过程及其与坡度关系的模拟研究

通过人工模拟降雨试验,分别观测降雨过程中不同方向上溅蚀强度的变化,根据各影响因子间相互消长及相互制约的关系特点,分析了雨滴溅蚀发生的过程特征及其变化原因,从溅蚀过程的变化特点及溅蚀强度的变化规律比较,定量地探讨了坡度对雨滴击溅侵蚀的影响作用,得出了溅蚀强度与坡度因子之间的关系方程。     

Characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the relationship with ENSO

During recent decades, more frequent flood-drought alternations have been seen in China as a result of global climate change and intensive human activities, which have significant implications on water and food security. To better identify the characteristics of flood-drought alternations, we proposed a modified dry-wet abrupt alternation index (DWAAI) and applied the new method in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB-ML) to analyze the long-term spatio-temporal characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events based on the daily precipitation observations at 75 rainfall stations in summer from 1960 to 2015. We found that the DWAA events have been spreading in the study area with higher frequency and intensity since 1960. In particular, the DWAA events mainly occurred in May and June in the northwest of the YRB-ML, including Hanjiang River Basin, the middle reaches of the YRB, north of Dongting Lake and northwest of Poyang Lake. In addition, we also analyzed the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on DWAA events in the YRB-ML. The results showed that around 41.04% of DWAA events occurred during the declining stages of La Niña or within the subsequent 8 months after La Niña, which implies that La Niña events could be predictive signals of DWAA events. Besides, significant negative correlations have been found between the modified DWAAI values of all the rainfall stations and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region within the 6 months prior to the DWAA events, particularly for the Poyang Lake watershed and the middle reaches of the YRB. This study has significant implications on the flood and drought control and water resources management in the YRB-ML under the challenge of future climate change.     

滇西北石鼓杂岩中花岗质片麻岩年代学、地球化学特征及地质意义

青藏高原东南缘滇西北前寒武纪石鼓变质杂岩中新识别出一套花岗质片麻岩.采用LA-ICP-MS方法进行锆石U-Pb年代学分析,获得206Pb/238 U加权平均年龄分别为790±11 Ma(MSWD=2.1,n=10)和814±15 Ma(MSWD=5.7,n=9),显示其形成于新元古代早期.地球化学特征显示,岩石具有高硅(SiO2=66.05％～77.16％)、高 K2O/Na2O(0.90～9.26,均值2.57)特征,MgO=0.35％～3.60％,TFeO=1.02％～4.86％,P2O5=0.03％～0.17％.铝饱和指数A/CNK为1.08～2.51,矿物组合中出现石榴子石和白云母等富铝矿物,CIPW标准矿物中刚玉分子平均含量为4.72％,显示为强过铝质花岗岩.球粒陨石标准化稀土配分显示轻稀土元素富集,(La/Yb)N=1.79～12.34,具明显的Eu负异常(δEu=0.21～0.67).原始地幔标准化蛛网图显示,岩石富集Rb、U,明显亏损Ba、Ta、Nb、Sr、P、Ti元素.综合分析认为,花岗质片麻岩原岩主要为低成熟度、黏土贫乏的砂质岩在高温条件下部分熔融的产物,形成于后碰撞构造环境,是Rodinia超大陆汇聚事件在滇西北石鼓地区的响应.     

北祁连加里东造山带从挤压到伸展造山机制的转换

早古生代早期，北祁连造山带发生强烈的挤压变形作用，形成加里东期的俯冲－增生杂岩、高压变质岩，并使造山带岩石圈地壳加厚缩短。志留纪末期，加厚的造山带岩石圈由于垮塌作用及根部的拆沉作用，使造山带从挤压造山机制转换为伸展造山机制，并进入后造山伸展作用阶段，增厚的岩石圈开始减薄，发生不同层次的伸展作用，同时伴随花岗岩及Ａｎ∈变质岩的穹隆以及泥盆纪磨拉石盆地上叠盆地（Ｃ－Ｔ）的形成。石炭纪末，北祁连造山带岩石圈地壳已基本减薄到正常厚度。而现今的北祁连造山带的缩短和抬升则为喜马拉雅期再造山作用的产物     

农业生态系统可持续性评价研究进展

在大量查阅国内外文献资料的基础上,阐述了国内外农业可持续性评价指标体系的选取标准与选取方法,在此基础上,综述了国内外农业可持续评价方法及评价尺度等研究进展情况。发现国内农业可持续性评价指标过多且以农业经济方面的指标为主,指标之间重叠现象严重,对生态环境、政策性和指导性指标重视不够,而且评价方法有待进一步完善。最后,针对农业可持续性评价中存在的问题提出了一些建议,以期对国内农业的可持续评价研究有所借鉴。     

初论双三次数值模式

讨论在数学Rn空间里,存在孔斯双三次曲面拟合的可能数值模式(以下称双三次数值模式)。双三次数值模式特点是,在诊断上对天气系统中的由各个物理定律表述的(离散点)大气物理量场,可通过数学三次样条函数做双三次曲面拟合,则模式大气(包括天气系统)的各个物理量场均达到二阶可导,即是大气运动方程中的各个物理量场都存在各自的一、二阶空间微商,从而可以对模式大气与天气系统做时间积分。与有限差分模式和谱模式存在所谓的空间截断误差和波数截断误差相比较,双三次数值模式存在所谓的空间拟合误差,恰是现行有限差分模式空间截断误差的高阶小量。而双三次数值模式具有谱模式准确计算空间微商的优点,且双三次数值模式的数学构架能够较好地适应大气运动动力框架,是可与有限差分模式和谱模式相比较的另一数值分析新算法的气象数值模式。