δ18O and δ13C in fossil shells of Radix sp. from the sediment succession of a dammed palaeo‐lake in the Yarlung Tsangpo valley,Tibet, China

A series of confirmed and suspected dammed palaeo‐lake sedimentary successions is scattered within the middle Yarlung Tsangpo valley in Tibet. However, the chronology, the genesis of the dam and its location, the water level of the dammed lake, the process of dam failure and the spatiotemporal relationships between the sedimentary successions remain controversial. Here, we focus on one sedimentary succession of the suspected dammed palaeo‐lake at Xigazê. We measured the grain‐size distribution, magnetic susceptibility, organic and inorganic carbon content, and δ¹³C_org and δ¹⁵N_total ratios of the sediments. In addition, we measured the δ¹⁸O_shell and δ¹³C_shell values of modern and fossil Radix sp. shells, and the δ¹⁸O_water and δ¹³C_DIC values of the ambient water with different hydrological regimes. The results indicate that the δ¹⁸O_shell values of modern Radix sp. and the δ¹⁸O_water of the ambient water body significantly depend on its hydrological status. In addition, a strong positive relationship was observed between δ¹⁸O_shell values of modern Radix sp. shells and the δ¹⁸O_water of the ambient water on the Tibetan Plateau. According to this correlation, the δ¹⁸O_water values of the palaeo‐water body are reconstructed using the δ¹⁸O_shell values of Radix sp. fossil shells in the Xigazê section. Further, based on the δ¹⁸O_shell values of fossil Radix sp., the reconstructed δ¹⁸O_water of the palaeo‐water body and the specific habitats of Radix sp., we infer that the sedimentary succession in the Xigazê broad valley was mainly formed within the backwater terminal zone of a dammed palaeo‐lake and that the elevation of the water level of the lake was approximately 3811 m a.s.l. AMS ¹⁴C dating indicates that the deposits of the dammed palaeo‐lake were formed at about 33–22 cal. ka BP. Finally, the presence of Radix sp. fossil shells within the Xigazê section suggests that Radix sp. survived the late Last Glacial Period on the Tibetan Plateau.     

Sedimentary evidence and luminescence and ESR dating of Early Pleistocene high lake levels of Megalake Tengger,northwestern China

The timing of high lake-level stands during the Late Pleistocene in western China remains controversial. Here we report new results from Megalake Tengger based on a study of palaeo-shorelines and a drill core from Baijian Lake in the northwestern Tengger Desert. Multiple dating methods, based on luminescence signals (quartz optically stimulated luminescence, K-feldspar post infrared-infrared stimulated luminescence) and electron spin resonance signals of quartz, were used to date beach sands from palaeo-shoreline profiles at altitudes of ~1310 m (+20 m above lake level), ~1320 m (+30 m) and ~1350 m (+60 m), and from the top 20 m of sandy sediments from the drill core obtained from the modern beach of Baijian Lake. The dating results show that high lake-level stands associated with the previously reported Megalake Tengger (~1310–1320 m) occurred during the late Early to Middle Pleistocene, which is much earlier than previously reported. In addition, no geomorphological evidence of shorelines and sedimentary evidence from the drill core profile were found to support the previously reported Late Pleistocene lake levels. Our results indicate that the exact age of the previously reported ‘high lake level event’ in a large part of northwestern China during the Late Pleistocene needs to be re-evaluated.     

Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using hysteretic behaviour and hydrograph classification to identify hydrological function across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum in a karst catchment

In cockpit karst landscapes, fluxes from upland areas contribute large volumes of water to low-lying depressions and stream flow. Hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between monitoring sites is important for understanding the space–time variability of hydrologic responses across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum. In this study, the hysteretic feature of hydrographs was assessed by characterizing the loop-like relationships between responses at upstream sites relative to subsurface discharge at the outlet of a small karst catchment. A classification of hydrograph responses based on the multi-scale smoothing Kernel -derived distance classifies the hydrograph responses on the basis of similarities between hillslope and depression sites, and those at the catchment outlet. Results demonstrate that the temporal and spatial variability of hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between hillslope flow and outlet stream flow can be explained by the local heterogeneity of depression aquifer. Large depression storage deficits emerging in the highly heterogeneous aquifer produce strong hysteresis and multiple relationships of upstream hydrographs relative to the outlet subsurface discharge. In contrast, when depression storage deficits are filled during consecutive rainfall events, depression hydrographs at the high permeability sites are almost synchronous or exhibit a monotonous function with the hydrographs at the outlet. This reduced hydrograph hysteresis enhances preferential flow paths in fractured rocks and conduits that can accelerate the hillslope flow to the outlet. Therefore, classification of hydrograph similarities between any upstream sites and the catchment outlet can help to identify the dominant hydrological functions in the heterogeneous karst catchment.     

Target setting and allocation of carbon emissions abatement based on DEA and closest target: an application to 20 APEC economies

Regarded as an effective method for treating the global warming problem, carbon emissions abatement (CEA) allocation has become a hot research topic and has drawn great attention recently. However, the traditional CEA allocation methods generally set efficient targets for the decision-making units (DMUs) using the farthest targets, which neglects the DMUs’ unwillingness to maximize (minimize) some of their inputs (outputs). In addition, the total CEA level is usually subjectively determined without any consideration of the current carbon emission situations of the DMUs. To surmount these deficiencies, we incorporate data envelopment analysis and its closest target technique into the CEA allocation problem. Firstly, a two-stage approach is proposed for setting the optimal total CEA level for the DMUs. Then, another two-stage approach is given for allocating the identified optimal total CEA among the DMUs. Our approach provides more flexibility when setting new input and output targets for the DMUs in CEA allocation. Finally, the proposed approaches are applied for CEA target setting and allocation for 20 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation economies.

     

Remote estimation of terrestrial evapotranspiration by Landsat 5 TM and the SEBAL model in cold and high‐altitude regions: a case study of the upper reach of the Shule River Basin,China

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important expenditure in water and energy balances, especially on cold and high‐altitude land surfaces. Daily ET of the upper reach of the Shule River Basin was estimated using Landsat 5 TM data and the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model. Based on observations made at the Suli station, the algorithms of land surface temperature and soil heat flux in SEBAL were modified. Land surface temperature was retrieved and compared with ground truth via three methods: the radiative transfer equation method, the mono‐window algorithm, and the single‐channel method. We selected the best of these methods, mono‐window algorithm, for estimating ET. The average error of daily ET estimated by the modified SEBAL model and measured by the eddy covariance system was 16.4%, with a root‐mean‐square error of 0.52 mm d^?1. The estimated ET means were 3.09, 2.48, and 1.48 mm d^?1 on June 9 (DOY 160), June 25 (DOY 176), and July 27 (DOY 208) of the year 2010, respectively. The average estimated ET on the glacier surface of all days was more than 3 mm d^?1, a measurement that is difficult to capture in‐situ and has rarely been reported. This study will improve the understanding of water balance in cold, high‐altitude regions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events on the Loess Plateau,China

Establishing a universal watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield prediction model represents a frontier field in erosion and soil/water conservation. The research presented here was conducted on the Chabagou watershed, which is located in the first sub‐region of the hill‐gully area of the Loess Plateau, China. A back‐propagation artificial neural model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield was established, with the accuracy of the model, then compared with that of multiple linear regression. The sensitivity degree of various factors to erosion and sediment yield was quantitatively analysed using the default factor test. On the basis of the sensitive factors and the fractal information dimension, the piecewise prediction model for erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events was established and further verified. The results revealed the back‐propagation artificial neural network model to perform better than the multiple linear regression model in terms of predicting the erosion modulus, with the former able to effectively characterize dynamic changes in sediment yield under comprehensive factor conditions. The sensitivity of runoff erosion power and runoff depth to the erosion and sediment yield associated with individual rainfall events was found to be related to the complexity of surface topography. The characteristics of such a hydrological response are thus closely related to topography. When the fractal information dimension is greater than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff erosion power is higher than that of using runoff depth. In contrast, when the fractal information dimension is smaller than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff depth is higher than that of using runoff erosion power. The developed piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events, which introduces runoff erosion power and runoff depth using the fractal information dimension as a boundary, can be considered feasible and reliable and has a high prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.