Numerical simulation of agricultural sediment and pesticide runoff: RZWQM and PRZM comparison

Agricultural sediment and pesticide runoff is a widespread ecological and human health concern. Numerical simulation models, such as Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) and Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), have been increasingly used to quantify off‐site agricultural pollutant movement. However, RZWQM has been criticized for its inability to simulate sedimentation processes. The recent incorporation of the sedimentation module of Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems has enabled RZWQM to simulate sediment and sediment‐associated pesticides. This study compares the sediment and pesticide transport simulation performance of the newly released RZWQM and PRZM using runoff data from 2 alfalfa fields in Davis, California. A composite metric (based on coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, index of agreement, and percent bias) was developed and employed to ensure robust, comprehensive assessment of model performance. Results showed that surface water runoff was predicted reasonably well (absolute percent bias <31%) by RZWQM and PRZM after adjusting important hydrologic parameters. Even after calibration, underestimation bias (?89% ≤ PBIAS  ≤ ?36%) for sediment yield was observed in both models. This might be attributed to PRZM's incorrect distribution of input water and uncertainty in RZWQM's runoff erosivity coefficient. Moreover, the underestimation of sediment might be less if the origin of measured sediment was considered. Chlorpyrifos losses were simulated with reasonable accuracy especially for Field A (absolute PBIAS  ≤ 22%), whereas diuron losses were underestimated to a great extent (?98% ≤ PBIAS  ≤ ?65%) in both models. This could be attributed to the underprediction of herbicide concentration in the top soil due to the limitations of the instantaneous equilibrium sorption model as well as the high runoff potential of herbicide formulated as water‐dispersible granules. RZWQM and PRZM partitioned pesticides into the water and sediment phases similarly. According to model predictions, the majority of pesticide loads were carried via the water phase. On the basis of this study, both RZWQM and PRZM performed well in predicting runoff that carried highly adsorptive pesticides on an event basis, although the more physically based RZWQM is recommended when field‐measured soil hydraulic properties are available.     

Sedimentary evidence and luminescence and ESR dating of Early Pleistocene high lake levels of Megalake Tengger,northwestern China

The timing of high lake-level stands during the Late Pleistocene in western China remains controversial. Here we report new results from Megalake Tengger based on a study of palaeo-shorelines and a drill core from Baijian Lake in the northwestern Tengger Desert. Multiple dating methods, based on luminescence signals (quartz optically stimulated luminescence, K-feldspar post infrared-infrared stimulated luminescence) and electron spin resonance signals of quartz, were used to date beach sands from palaeo-shoreline profiles at altitudes of ~1310 m (+20 m above lake level), ~1320 m (+30 m) and ~1350 m (+60 m), and from the top 20 m of sandy sediments from the drill core obtained from the modern beach of Baijian Lake. The dating results show that high lake-level stands associated with the previously reported Megalake Tengger (~1310–1320 m) occurred during the late Early to Middle Pleistocene, which is much earlier than previously reported. In addition, no geomorphological evidence of shorelines and sedimentary evidence from the drill core profile were found to support the previously reported Late Pleistocene lake levels. Our results indicate that the exact age of the previously reported ‘high lake level event’ in a large part of northwestern China during the Late Pleistocene needs to be re-evaluated.     

Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using hysteretic behaviour and hydrograph classification to identify hydrological function across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum in a karst catchment

In cockpit karst landscapes, fluxes from upland areas contribute large volumes of water to low-lying depressions and stream flow. Hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between monitoring sites is important for understanding the space–time variability of hydrologic responses across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum. In this study, the hysteretic feature of hydrographs was assessed by characterizing the loop-like relationships between responses at upstream sites relative to subsurface discharge at the outlet of a small karst catchment. A classification of hydrograph responses based on the multi-scale smoothing Kernel -derived distance classifies the hydrograph responses on the basis of similarities between hillslope and depression sites, and those at the catchment outlet. Results demonstrate that the temporal and spatial variability of hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between hillslope flow and outlet stream flow can be explained by the local heterogeneity of depression aquifer. Large depression storage deficits emerging in the highly heterogeneous aquifer produce strong hysteresis and multiple relationships of upstream hydrographs relative to the outlet subsurface discharge. In contrast, when depression storage deficits are filled during consecutive rainfall events, depression hydrographs at the high permeability sites are almost synchronous or exhibit a monotonous function with the hydrographs at the outlet. This reduced hydrograph hysteresis enhances preferential flow paths in fractured rocks and conduits that can accelerate the hillslope flow to the outlet. Therefore, classification of hydrograph similarities between any upstream sites and the catchment outlet can help to identify the dominant hydrological functions in the heterogeneous karst catchment.     

Remote estimation of terrestrial evapotranspiration by Landsat 5 TM and the SEBAL model in cold and high‐altitude regions: a case study of the upper reach of the Shule River Basin,China

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important expenditure in water and energy balances, especially on cold and high‐altitude land surfaces. Daily ET of the upper reach of the Shule River Basin was estimated using Landsat 5 TM data and the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model. Based on observations made at the Suli station, the algorithms of land surface temperature and soil heat flux in SEBAL were modified. Land surface temperature was retrieved and compared with ground truth via three methods: the radiative transfer equation method, the mono‐window algorithm, and the single‐channel method. We selected the best of these methods, mono‐window algorithm, for estimating ET. The average error of daily ET estimated by the modified SEBAL model and measured by the eddy covariance system was 16.4%, with a root‐mean‐square error of 0.52 mm d^?1. The estimated ET means were 3.09, 2.48, and 1.48 mm d^?1 on June 9 (DOY 160), June 25 (DOY 176), and July 27 (DOY 208) of the year 2010, respectively. The average estimated ET on the glacier surface of all days was more than 3 mm d^?1, a measurement that is difficult to capture in‐situ and has rarely been reported. This study will improve the understanding of water balance in cold, high‐altitude regions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.