全国自动地震速报系统综合评估

通过对2011年1月1日至12月31日的3套独立自动地震定位系统结果进行综合处理,得出中国自动地震综合目录,并与正式速报结果进行对比,得出全国自动地震速报系统综合评估结果,发现该目录对于国内绝大部分5级以上、国外7级以上地震实现整体覆盖,且没有误报发生,可以作为国家台网中心正式地震速报的重要参考,对于建立“自动报～正式报”的两级地震速报制度可提供技术支撑。     

地震计保温效能分析

为内蒙古自治区大沁塔拉地震台地震计安装保温罩,利用台基噪声计算软件,计算保温前后地震观测数据PSD概率密度函数,分析保温罩对地震计的效能,结果发现,保温罩安装后,地震计温度变化平稳,地震观测数据质量提高。     

基于DEM的小流域土地利用分析模型研究与实践

采用DEM数据和各种土地利用类型矢量数据,运用GIS空间分析方法,设计土地利用分析模型,实现各种土地利用类型在不同地形因子影响下的空间分布现状的分析和显示,为区域土地利用规划或优化土地利用结构提供决策服务.     

Experimental analysis and application of sparsity constrained deconvolution

Sparsity constrained deconvolution can improve the resolution of band-limited seismic data compared to conventional deconvolution. However, such deconvolution methods result in nonunique solutions and suppress weak reflections. The Cauchy function, modified Cauchy function, and Huber function are commonly used constraint criteria in sparse deconvolution. We used numerical experiments to analyze the ability of sparsity constrained deconvolution to restore reflectivity sequences and protect weak reflections under different constraint criteria. The experimental results demonstrate that the performance of sparsity constrained deconvolution depends on the agreement between the constraint criteria and the probability distribution of the reflectivity sequences; furthermore, the modified Cauchyconstrained criterion protects the weak reflections better than the other criteria. Based on the model experiments, the probability distribution of the reflectivity sequences of carbonate and clastic formations is statistically analyzed by using well-logging data and then the modified Cauchy-constrained deconvolution is applied to real seismic data much improving the resolution.     

Glass inclusions in volcanic rocks in the Okinawa Trough back-arc basin:constraints on magma genesis and evolution

INTROOUcr1ONThe Okinawa Trough is a typical marginal back-arc basin, where its oPening began in rela-tively recent years* There is a great controversy about the origin of its initial magYna. haltand acid volcanic pumice make up the bimedal volcanism in the Okinawa Trough. MOSt of geol-ogists believed that the acid pumice was the preduct of extremely crystal fractionation of baseltInagTna, but the others argued that it should com from the melting of lower-crust. Som de-tailed petrolOgic…     

Pore-water geochemistry in methane-seep sediments of the Makran accretionary wedge off Pakistan: Possible link to subsurface methane hydrate

Cold seeps are pervasive along the continental margin worldwide,and are recognized as hotspots for elemental cycling pathway on Earth.In this study,analyses of pore water geochemical compositions of one-400 cm piston core(S3) and the application of a mass balance model are conducted to assess methane-associated biogeochemical reactions and uncover the relationship of methane in shallow sediment with gas hydrate reservoir at the Makran accretionary wedge off Pakistan.The results revealed that approximately 77% of sulfate is consumed by the predominant biogeochemical process of anaerobic oxidation of methane.However,the estimated sulfate-methane interface depth is-400 cm below sea floor with the methane diffusive flux of 0.039 mol/(m~2·a),suggesting the activity of methane seepage.Based on the δ~(13)C_(DIC) mass balance model combined with the contribution proportion of different dissolved inorganic carbon sources,this study calculated the δ~(13)C of the exogenous methane to be-57.9‰,indicating that the exogenous methane may be a mixture source,including thermogenic and biogenic methane.The study of pore water geochemistry at Makran accretionary wedge off Pakistan may have considerable implications for understanding the specific details on the dynamics of methane in cold seeps and provide important evidence for the potential occurrence of subsurface gas hydrate in this area.     

Controlling factors on the charging process of oil and gas in the eastern main sub-sag of the Baiyun Sag,Zhujiang River (Pearl River) Mouth Basin

The eastern main sub-sag (E-MSS) of the Baiyun Sag was the main zone for gas exploration in the deep-water area of the Zhujiang River (Pearl River) Mouth Basin at its early exploration stage, but the main goal of searching gas in this area was broken through by the successful exploration of the W3-2 and H34B volatile oil reservoirs, which provides a new insight for exploration of the Paleogene oil reservoirs in the E-MSS. Nevertheless, it is not clear on the distribution of “gas accumulated in the upper layer, oil accumulated in the lower layer” (Gas_upper-Oil_lower) under the high heat flow, different source-rock beds, multi-stages of oil and gas charge, and multi-fluid phases, and not yet a definite understanding of the genetic relationship and formation mechanism among volatile oil, light oil and condensate gas reservoirs, and the migration and sequential charge model of oil and gas. These puzzles directly lead to the lack of a clear direction for oil exploration and drilling zone in this area. In this work, the PVT fluid phase, the origin of crude oil and condensate, the secondary alteration of oil and gas reservoirs, the evolution sequence of oil and gas formation, the phase state of oil and gas migration, and the configuration of fault activity were analyzed, which established the migration and accumulation model of Gas_upper-Oil_lower co-controlled by source and heat, and fractionation controlled by facies in the E-MSS. Meanwhile, the fractionation evolution model among common black reservoirs, volatile reservoirs, condensate reservoirs and gas reservoirs is discussed, which proposed that the distribution pattern of Gas_upper-Oil_lower in the E-MSS is controlled by the generation attribute of oil and gas from source rocks, the difference of thermal evolution, and the fractionation controlled by phases after mixing the oil and gas. Overall, we suggest that residual oil reservoirs should be found in the lower strata of the discovered gas reservoirs in the oil-source fault and diapir-developed areas, while volatile oil reservoirs should be found in the deeper strata near the sag with no oil-source fault area.     

利用GPS拖体在万山区域测量平均海面技术研究

Wanshan area has been chosen to be the specified field to calibrate and validate(Cal/Val) the HY-2 altimeter and its follow-on satellites. In March 2018, an experiment has been conducted to determine the sea surface height(SSH) under the HY-2 A ground track(Pass No. 203). A GPS towing-body(GPS-TB) was designed to measure the SSH covering an area of about 6 km×28 km wide centered on the HY-2 A altimeter satellite ground track. Three GPS reference stations, one tide gauge and a GPS buoy were placed in the research area, in order to process and resolve the kinematic solution and check the precision of the GPS-TB respectively. All the GPS data were calculated by the GAMIT/GLOBK software and TRACK module. The sea surface was determined by the GPS-TB solution and the tide gauge placed on Zhiwan Island. Then the sea surface of this area was interpolated by Arc GIS10.2 with ordinary Kriging method. The results showed that the precision of the GPS-TB is about 1.10 cm compared with the tide gauge placed nearby, which has an equivalent precision with the GPS buoy. The interpolated sea surface has a bias of –1.5–4.0 cm with standard deviation of 0.2–2.4 cm compared with the checking line. The gradient of the measured sea surface is about 1.62 cm/km along the HY-2 orbit which shows a good agreement compared with the CLS11 mean sea surface(MSS). In the Cal/Val of satellites, the sea surface between the tide gauge/GPS buoy and the footprint of altimeter can be improved by this work.     

攀枝花短时强降水气候特征分析

利用攀枝花市1988~2010年5~10月的逐时降水资料,对各历时各级强降水的时空分布特征进行了分析,利用皮尔逊-Ⅲ型频率分布函数,计算了攀枝花市4站1h、3h和6h各重现期的极端最大降水量。结果表明:各级强降水主要集中在6~9月,以7月为最多,且日变化特征显著,最容易出现在00~05时。1h、3h、6h的最大降水量均出现在盐边,盐边和市区更容易发生1h≥50mm的极端强降水。短时强降水过程具有非常强的局地性,单站过程高达80%,且雨强越大局地性越强。各历时各重现期的极端最大降水量均以盐边为最大。      

基于混合回归模型的夏季高温日数预测

本文以变化比较激烈的高温日数为对象,通过加权叠加、周期波动以及尺度比较等理论分析提出一种短期气候预测观点,即长周期波动可用当地前期各种气象要素的长周期波动的某种函数表示,而短周期波动依然与大范围周边环境因子的变化有关。采用功率谱分析、逐步回归、方差分析等常用统计手段和二项式平滑方法,建立长周期波动和波动偏差比的预报方程,在此基础上得到高温日数的预报方程。应用该方法对合肥地区的高温日数进行了预测试验,利用滚动预报得到13个预报样本。在13个试测样本中,有11个样本试测较为准确,试测准确率达到84．6％。在试测不准确的2个样本中,误差有5～6d,而且它们出现在高温日数相对较多的年份,因此试测效果令人满意。