沉降观测AR模型的不确定性平差算法

在沉降观测过程中,获取的数据经常存在着不确定性,影响参数估计的可靠性和沉降预测的准确性。把不确定度作为参数融入AR模型,建立基于AR模型的不确定性平差模型。依据残差中不确定性传播规律,利用min-max估计准则,使得残差中的最大不确定度达到最小,从一个新的角度探讨不确定性观测数据的处理方法,得到基于不确定性算法的AR模型,扩展了现有误差理论。通过沉降实例进一步验证算法的优越性。     

The conservation patterns of grassland ecosystem in response to the forage-livestock balance in North China

Being a key ecological security barrier and production base for grassland animal husbandry in China,the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure in North China directly affects grassland degradation and restoration,thereby impacting grassland ecosystem services.This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation in grassland vegetation coverage,forage supply,and the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure from 2000 to 2015 in North China.We then discuss the spatial pattern of grassland ecological conservation under the impacts of grassland degradation and restoration,and livestock-carrying pressure.Over the last 16 years,the total grassland area in North China decreased by about 16,000 km2,with vegetation coverage degraded by 6.7％ of the grasslands but significantly restored by another 5.4％ of grasslands.The provisioning of forage by natural grassland mainly increased over time,with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.3 kg/ha,but livestock-carrying pressure also increased continuously.The livestock-carrying pressure index without any supplementary feeding reached as high as 3.8.Apart from the potential livestock-carrying capacity in northeastern Inner Mongolia and the central Tibetan Plateau,most regions in North China are currently overloaded.Considering the actual supplementary feeding during the cold season,the livestock-carrying pressure index is about 3.1,with the livestock-carrying pressure mitigated in central and eastern Inner Mongolia.Assuming full supplementary feeding in the cold season,livestock-carrying pressure index will fall to 1.9,with the livestock-carrying pressure alleviated significantly in Inner Mongolia and on the Tibetan Plateau.Finally,we propose different conservation and development strategies to balance grassland ecological conservation and animal husbandry production in different regions of protected areas,pastoral areas,farming-pastoral ecotone,and farming areas,according to the grassland ecological protection patterns.     

太行山东麓滹沱河出山处新生代沉积相与地貌结构

研究区在大地构造上处于山西台背斜上的五台隆起与辽冀台向斜内的博野拗陷之间的过渡地区,在地貌上位于太行山地与华北大平原之间的过渡带、滹沱河及其主要(右岸)支流冶河出山口地区,是一片点缀有残山的宽广的山前夷平面与冲洪积扇。     

济阳坳陷桩海地区下古生界硅化岩溶储集层空间分布模式

基于岩心描述和镜下观察,分析了研究区下古生界硅化岩溶储集层的岩性特征。通过对沟通潜山断块和古近纪洼陷的边界断层产状、潜山断块内下古生界产状的分析,认为下古生界碳酸盐岩具备埋藏岩溶作用条件,提出了古近纪沉积物压释酸性水向潜山断块运移的3种方式,即：翘倾端断面补给畅流运移模式、倾没端断面补给畅流运移模式和背斜凸起两侧双向渗入补给对流循环模式。利用这 3种模式可以合理解释研究区下古生界潜山硅化岩溶储集层空间分布的特点和规律。翘倾端断面补给畅流运移模式可以解释潜山断块高部位硅化岩溶层段储集层的发育情况,倾没端断面补给畅流运移模式和背斜凸起两侧纵向渗入补给对流循环模式,可以解释潜山断块的低部位硅化岩溶层段储集层的发育情况。该模式还可以合理地解释硅化岩溶储集层在下古生界赋存层位的 “ 穿层性”特点,同时也能够合理解释潜山断块周缘发育硅化岩溶层段,而潜山断块中心地带很少出现硅化岩溶层段等现象。     

Authigenic iron oxide formation in the estuarine mixing zone of the Yangtze River

Estuaries are elementary geochemical fronts where river water and seawater mix. Within this mixing zone, iron and other non-conservative elements can undergo complex reactions to form new solid phases. In order to understand authigenic iron oxide formation in the Yangtze River Estuary, two onsite water-mixing sets of experiments were conducted, one by mixing variable amounts of unfiltered Yangtze River water with filtered East China Sea water of different salinity (set 1), the other by mixing variable amounts of filtered Yangtze River water with filtered East China Sea water of different salinity (set 2). In set 2, the minerals newly formed in the course of mixing were investigated by means of a scanning electron microscope fitted with an energy-dispersive X-ray analytical system. It was found that ferrihydrite and lepidocrocite were formed in these mixing experiments, coexisting in nearly equal amounts. These iron oxides appear as aggregated particles with a large grain-size range of several microns to more than 100 μm. The electrolytic properties of seawater played an important role in the formation of these authigenic iron oxides. Kaolinite and organic aggregates were also found in the experimentally mixed pre-filtered waters. Amounts of newly formed suspended matter (set 2) were one to three orders of magnitude lower than those of total suspended matter (TSM) (set 1). This implies that newly formed minerals represent only a very small proportion of TSM in the estuarine mixing zone of the Yangtze River.     

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三疣梭子蟹全人工工厂化育苗技术

2000年笔者在日照市水产研究所利用1450m^3水进行梭子蟹全人工工厂化育苗生产，共出Ⅱ-Ⅲ期幼蟹512．7万只，创造了出苗量为3500只／m^3，总产值为150多万元的直接经济效益，同时对幼体培育的密度进行了初步试验，结果表明：从Z1至M期幼体培育密度10－15万／m^3为宜，M期以后密度以0．8－1．5万／m^3为宜。     

基于决策树的多角度遥感影像分类

快速准确地获取土地利用/覆被信息是遥感领域研究的一个热点课题.本文用5种决策树分类器及MISR多角度数据,对塔里木河下游地区进行土地覆被分类研究.通过对不同波段和观测角数据组合形成的6个数据集进行分类比较发现:(1)无论使用哪种分类器,相比于天底角观测方式,多角度观测都能获得更高的分类精度,特别是能显著提高灌木,林地和草地类型的分类精度,说明多角度观测能有效地反映地物的反射异质性信息,更好地区分地物.(2)与MLC分类法相比,决策树算法的分类精度更高,特别是随机森林和C 5.0方法最为突出,说明决策树的分类能力要优于MLC法.使用多角度数据集时,这种差别更明显,说明决策树能更有效地利用多角度信息.(3)4种决策树算法(J48,Random Forest,LMT,C 5.0)使用近红外波段的分类效果好于使用红光波段的分类效果,说明近红外波段能提供更多的地物反射异质性信息.     

季冻土区临水内、外拱护墙结构冻胀特征分析及治理

为厘清季冻土区临水内、外拱护墙结构冻胀平位移冻害机理,测试隔离层防冻害装置的有效性,在20101110-20110531、20131110-20140531、20171110-20180531三个观测年内,以长春某湖泊临水内、外拱护墙结构为研究对象,选择内、外拱护墙结构和设隔离层防冻害装置的试验内拱护墙结构三者相对比,用钢尺量距法观测三者寒期的平位移状态。结果表明：内拱护墙结构出现倾斜、裂缝导致的内向冻胀平位移冻害,其内向平位移曲线随气温均呈"半驼峰型",对应观测年持续降温-持续低温-持续升温-正温时段,内向冻胀平位移呈减小-增大-减小-稳定残余的位移运动,诱因是平冻胀应力的生成-增长-减弱-消失作用;外拱护墙结构出现较小的外向冻胀平位移,外向冻胀平位移曲线均呈"波浪型",无冻害发生,冰凸拱平冻胀应力推动外拱护墙结构压缩冻土凹拱形成外向冻胀平位移,冻土凹拱限制了外向冻胀平位移发展;设隔离层防冻害装置的试验内拱护墙结构未发生平位移冻害,其内向冻胀平位移较自然冻胀的内拱护墙结构减小83.92%,较外拱护墙结构减小51.74%,表明隔离层防冻害装置防治冻胀平位移冻害有效。