Validation of the effects of temperature simulated by multi-model ensemble and prediction of mean temperature changes for the next three decades in China

Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961–1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and simulated results of 20 global climate models (such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47) during the same period as the observation, we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of multi- model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of 1991–1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period of 2011–2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. Analyzed results show that: (1) Global climate models can reproduce Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. (2) With the factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the observation. (3) Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991–1999, we can simulate the trend of temperature increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same weighing ensemble. (4) For the period of 2011–2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1 °C. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8 °C; the trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1 °C.     

GEOCHRONOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS FOR INTERPRETING THE PALEOCLIMATIC HISTORY OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU

在当前全球变化背景下,青藏高原冰川急剧退缩严重影响着东亚地区水资源.为了有效地规划水资源,需要对高原气候变化及其机制有深入的理解.尽管在青藏高原及周边地区有大量的古气候记录,但是目前对高原气候的时空变化及其机制仍缺乏深入一致的认识.青藏高原冰川、树轮和石笋记录可以提供过去气候变化的框架,但是这些记录的分布局限于一些特定的地理区域.青藏高原上广泛分布的湖泊沉积物是研究高原气候的时空变化及其机制的优良介质.湖泊沉积物岩芯的年龄控制主要依赖于放射性碳同位素定年,但大多数高原湖泊具有碳库效应,为建立沉积岩芯年代控制需要进行碳库年龄校正所带来的年龄误差目前未有深入研究,这在某种程度上制约了利用湖泊沉积物记录研究高原气候时空变化及其机制.本文比较了目前确定高原湖泊碳库年龄的方法并提出建议采用的方法,汇总目前己发表的高原湖泊碳库年龄,讨论湖泊现代碳库年龄的空间分布及其影响因素,讨论湖泊碳库过去变化及其可能造成的岩芯年代控制误差;以青海湖和班公错两个高原湖泊已发表的记录为例讨论过去碳库年龄变化可能造成对记录完全不同的解释;还讨论了由碳库效应校正而带来的湖泊沉积物岩芯年龄控制误差对青藏高原湖泊记录的末次盛冰期终止年代的空间分布及其对变化机制解释的影响.如果考虑碳库效应的过去变化,目前所观测到的高原气候时空变化及其机制需要重新解释.因此,为了更好地理解青藏高原气候时空变化及其机制,我们需要更多有良好定年、高分辨率和定量化的湖泊记录,本文也建议在解释目前湖泊记录时需要应对年龄控制极大重视.     

大姚6级双震前的地震前兆特征

在连续形变观测资料中除了存在于整个时间域的短周期潮汐信息(固体潮)外，还有出现在某个时间段的长周期非潮汐信息．如何从时间或空间上认识和提取这些信息．成为认识地震过程和进行地震预报关键和迫切的问题之一。利用小波分析的时一频特性和奇异性检测特性，对大姚6级双震前的连续形变观测资料进行了处理，提取潮汐资料中的非潮汐信息。发现在地震前震中附近的形变台站都接收到了相同频段的异常信号．周期为几天到十几天，出现在各个台站的时间也大致相同。这些在震前具有一定时、空分布的信息有可能是地震前兆。     

A study on environmental aridity over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains under climate warming

1 Introduction With progressive researches on global climate change, an integrated study of various disciplines tends to be inevitable. Mr. Moore III, chairman of IGBP, holds that the key to integration is to synthesize scientific findings so as to get new ideas and to chance cognition up to a new high[1]. Micro-study, rather than macro-study focuses on regional change[2-5]. To strengthen the global perspective in the study, "to research on typical regions and to deepen the regional divide…     

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????GNSSα????λ??????λ?????????????????λ????????DOP???????λ????????RDOP??????????????????????????????????仯?????????????DOP????GNSS????λ????????÷?Χ??????????????DOP??RDOP?????????仯??????????????￡????????????????????????????????????????????????DOP?????????λ????????????????????RDOP?????????λ?????????     

Causes and effects of spatial and temporal variations of cold period in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2014

Based on daily average temperatures and observation data from 74 meteorological stations in Chinese oases, we calculate five-day (pentad) average temperature ≤0°C for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period using linear regression analysis, nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests, the Morlet wavelet power spectrum, and correlation analysis. We also analyze spatial and temporal variations and their effects on the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period in Chinese oases. Results show that over the last 55 years, the start pentad of cold period has been postponed while the end pentad has been advanced. Overall, the pentads have gradually shortened over time at trend rates that are 0.3 p/10a,–0.27 p/10a, and–0.58 p/10a, respectively. Spatial differences are significant, especially for the Qaidam Basin oasis where the start pentad is the earliest, the end pentad is the latest, and the trend of change is most obvious. Mutation points for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period were observed in 1990, 1998, and 1994, respectively. Of these, the start pentad and pentads of cold period show a periodic cycle, related to atmospheric circulation and El Nino events, while the end pentad exhibits a periodic cycle, related to solar activity. The Tibetan Plateau index (TPI), the Asian polar vortex area index (APVAI), and carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) are the main factors affecting cold period in the study area, whereas the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) index exerts the greatest effect on the Qaidam Basin oasis. The start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period increase in concert with latitude, longitude, and altitude; in response to these changes, the start pentad is advanced, the end pentad is postponed, and pentads of cold period are gradually extended. Results show that change in latitude is most significant. Overall, the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period show clear responses to regional warming, but there are different effects on each.     

H~+,Li~+,Mg~(2+)∥Cl~-—H_2O四元水盐体系在-10℃时的平衡溶解度相图

本文利用等温溶解度法测定了H~+,Li~+,Mg~(2+)//Cl~-—H_2O四元水盐体系在—10℃±0.1℃时的溶解度并绘制了等温相图。相图由HCl·MgCl_2·7H_2O、MgCl_2·8H_2O、HCl·6H_2O和LiCl·2H_2O四个相区构成,只有一个零变量点I:LiCl·2H_2O+MgCl_2·6H_2O+HCl·MgCl_2·7H_2O+L_(?)利用坐标变换和直线外推法,对溶解度数据进行处理后,用湿渣结线法解决了低温平衡固相较难确定的问题。     

乌兰布和沙漠东北缘地表风沙流结构特征

在国家林业局磴口荒漠生态站长期监测的基础上,利用多种积沙仪,对乌兰布和沙漠东北缘流动沙丘、油蒿半固定沙丘、白刺半固定沙丘、油蒿固定沙丘、白刺固定沙丘5种典型下垫面近地面（0～100 cm）的风沙流输沙量进行了实地观测和对比分析。结果表明：（1） 输沙率（q）随高度（h）增加呈幂函数（q=ah^-b,R²≥0.8409）规律衰减,随风速（v）增大呈幂函数（q=av^b,R²≥0.9256）规律增加,42.8%～70.7%的输沙量分布在10 cm高度内,67.6%～90.0%的输沙量分布于30 cm高度内。当地表植被盖度达到40%以上时,输沙率下降至无植被覆盖地表输沙率的6.6%以下,可有效阻止地表风蚀。（2） 沙物质主要由粒径为50～250 μm的细沙和极细沙构成,各高度层风蚀物粒度组成服从单峰态分布,峰值在100～250 μm。随高度增加,风蚀物粒径范围趋于变窄,粒径趋于更细。（3） 起沙风多出现在WSW和NW方向,占全年起沙风的53.19%。风沙流中跃移输沙、蠕移输沙的空间分布在理论上应与风向频率分布基本一致,差异性主要由各方位风的强度和持续时间等因素导致。研究结果可为该区域防沙工程设计提供理论参考。     

硫化物风化产酸对流域岩石风化和碳循环的影响——以黄河支流三川河流域为例

硫化物风化产酸可加速岩溶作用但抑制大气二氧化碳参与流域碳循环,其复杂的地球化学机制和过程待阐明。本文以黄河二级支流三川河流域为例,通过采集20个三川河及其支流地表水点样和30个柳林泉地下水点样,经实验测试获得了流域比较系统的水化学资料和δ¹³C、δ³⁴ S数据,运用碳、硫同位素分析与水化学平衡计量方法,量化了流域硫化物风化产酸对岩石风化作用的贡献以及对碳循环的影响。计算结果表明：煤系地层硫化物和矿床硫化物的氧化及大气酸沉降所形成的硫酸明显促进了流域碳酸盐岩的溶蚀,对碳酸盐岩溶蚀的贡献约占64.59%;柳林泉水石膏溶解来源的SO₄^2-占69%,河水中石膏溶解来源的SO₄^2-占30%,但这些部分SO₄^2-没有参与溶蚀作用,应当扣除;三川河流域平均岩石风化速率为10.02 mm/ka,其中碳酸盐岩、硅酸盐岩的风化速率分别为9.14 mm/ka和0.88 mm/ka,低于国内外很多流域;由于硫酸抵消了碳酸盐岩石风化作用对大气二氧化碳的吸收,流域岩石风化消耗大气/土壤CO₂通量为116.58 mmol/（km² ·a）,不足珠江流域的1/5,且硅酸盐岩风化的贡献占63.3%。

     

STUDY ON GIS FOR YIELD ESTIMATION BY REMOTE SENSING IN JILIN MAIZE BELT

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