Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

虚拟化在气象局数据中心的应用

通过对虚拟化技术的研究,结合泰州气象局机房布局、数据中心服务器、存储的应用情况以及新业务的增长需求,提出了有针对性的气象业务虚拟化的解决方案。通过新购刀片服务器、FC SAN存储、VMware软件以及对原有的服务器、存储、网络进行整合改造,搭建了气象业务的虚拟化运行模式,最终实现资源的统一调度管理,建成了一个通用性强、扩展性好、可用性高的数据中心。文章同时简述了虚拟化在数据中心的实施过程、应用注意事项、业务迁移适应性分析以及最终的效益。     

台湾海峡西岸海雾研究现状与未来发展方向

台湾海峡是一个海雾多发的交通要道,海雾灾害往往会导致人员和财产损失。对当前有关的海雾研究现状进行总结,以海峡西岸为代表,比较台湾海峡海雾和其他海域的大雾研究进展状况,主要包括海雾发生时的天气气候学特征、监测手段、微物理特征研究和海雾数值预报研究等。结果表明,台湾海峡西岸在天气气候学方面已经取得了一定的成果;监测手段随着科学技术的发展,也不断的完善,但在如何对卫星遥感监测结果进行反演方面还需进一步研究;海雾的微物理特征研究有助于海雾模式的改进和卫星遥感海雾反演技术的提高,但台湾海峡西岸尚未开始研究,是下一步的研究重点;台湾海峡海雾数值模拟工作较少,伴随观测技术的不断进步、动力统计方法的不断完善,可通过数值预报产品与传统的天气学方法相结合,提高台湾海峡海雾预报水平。     

自适应联邦滤波器在GPS-INS-Odometer组合导航的应用

针对多传感器观测信息较多、计算效率较低、对动力学模型误差稳键性不佳的问题,提出了一种自适应联邦滤波器并应用于GPS-INS-Odometer组合导航。首先介绍GPS-INS-Odometer组合导航的动力学模型和观测模型,比较分析了信息分配因子和自适应因子的共同特性,论证了联邦滤波器和自适应滤波器的等价性及其等价成立条件,提出了自适应联邦滤波器的信息分配因子构造方法。最后利用实测数据验证了算法的有效性。结果表明,相比于基于GPS和Odometer(里程计)初始方差构造信息分配因子的联邦滤波器,本文提出的自适应联邦滤波器兼容了联邦滤波器高效计算效率,且具有较好的抵抗动力学模型误差效果,能够有效削弱多传感器动力学模型误差对于导航解算的影响,对直接可测参数和间接可测参数的精度提高均起到了积极的作用。     

Curve matching approaches to waveform classification: a case study using ICESat data

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) waveforms are being increasingly used in many forest and urban applications, especially for ground feature classification. However, most studies relied on either discretizing waveforms to multiple returns or extracting shape metrics from waveforms. The direct use of the full waveform, which contains the most comprehensive and accurate information has been scarcely explored. We proposed to utilize the complete waveform to test its ability to differentiate between objects having distinct vertical structures using curve matching approaches. Two groups of curve matching approaches were developed by extending methods originally designed for pixel-based hyperspectral image classification and object-based high spatial image classification. The first group is based on measuring the curve similarity between an unknown waveform and a reference waveform, including curve root sum squared differential area (CRSSDA), curve angle mapper (CAM), and Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence. The second group assesses the curve similarity between an unknown and reference cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of their waveforms, including cumulative curve root sum squared differential area (CCRSSDA), cumulative curve angle mapper (CCAM), and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) distance. When employed to classify open space, trees, and buildings using ICESat waveform data, KL provided the highest average classification accuracy (87%), closely followed by CCRSSDA and CCAM, and they all significantly outperformed KS, CRSSDA, and CAM based on 15 randomized sample sets.     

淤泥质海岸入海河口闸下港道河相关系

以江苏沿海北部的射阳河闸下港道为原型,建立二维水动力及泥沙输运概化数学模型,模拟了淤泥质海岸闸下港道淤积过程。分别在不考虑径流年内分配变化和考虑径流年内分配变化的情况下,研究了入海径流对港道内水沙动力和冲淤演变的影响。参考前人研究成果,结合量纲和谐准则,根据模型的计算结果,建立了淤泥质海岸闸下港道年均平衡流量与汛期排水比例、河床断面积、外海潮差、潮波变形、港道长度等因素间的河相关系式,对在实际情况中达到动态冲淤平衡的某条特定港道,可简化为港道年均流量与河床断面积间关系式的简化形式,并通过分析实测资料,对公式的简化形式加以佐证。