Numerical Study of Tide-Induced Airflow and Salt–Fresh Water Dynamics in Unconfined Aquifers

This study employed a coupled water-air two-phase flow and salt water transport model to analyze the behaviors of generated airflow in unsaturated zones and the fluctuations of salinity at the salt–fresh water interface in a two-layered unconfined aquifer with a sloping beach surface subjected to tidal oscillations. The simulation results show that as the new dynamic steady state including effects of tidal fluctuations is reached through multiple tidal cycles, the dispersion zone in the lower salt water wedge is broadened because fresh water/salt water therein flows continuously landward or seaward during tidal cycles. The upper salt–fresh water interface exhibits more vulnerable to the tidal fluctuations, and the variation of salinity therein is periodic, which is irrelevant to the hydraulic head but is influenced by the direction and velocity of surrounding water-flow. With the tidal level fluctuating, airflow is mainly concentrated in the lower permeable layer due to the restraint of the upper semi-permeable layer, and the time-lag between the pore-air pressure and the tidal level increases with distance from the coastline. The effect of airflow in unsaturated zones can be transmitted downward, causing both the magnitude of salinity and its amplitude in the upper salt–fresh water interface to be smaller for the case with airflow than without airflow due to the resistance of airflow to water-flow. Sensitivity analysis reveal that distributions of airflow in unsaturated zones are affected by the permeability of the upper/lower layer and the van Genuchten parameter of the lower layer, not by the van Genuchten parameter of the upper layer, whereas the salinity fluctuations in the salt–fresh water interface are affected only by soil parameters of the lower layer.     

深层地下水开采引起的生态环境问题及其治理

在分析河北平原深层地下水资源的构成与开发利用问题的基础上,论述了深层地下水严重超采引起的生态环境问题,通过建立深层地下水开发利用管理模型,探求深层地下水可开采量,提出了深层地下水开发利用的对策以及防治生态环境继续恶化的措施.     

Electro-osmotic permeability model based on ions migration

Acta Geotechnica - Electro-osmotic permeability is a very important parameter in soil drainage and electrochemical remediation. The present widely used equation for calculating the electro-osmotic...     

利用COSMIC掩星资料研究青藏高原地区大气边界层高度

以往关于青藏高原边界层的研究都是基于个别站点的常规观测,对青藏高原边界层的整体性认识受限。GPS掩星资料具有测量精度高和垂直分辨率高的特性,其廓线中含有大量有价值的边界层信息。利用2007—2013年COSMIC掩星资料,通过计算大气折射率最小梯度来确定边界层高度,并用无线电探空资料对结果进行了检验。在此基础上,对青藏高原地区边界层高度的特征及其形成机制展开了研究,比较了COSMIC掩星确定的边界层高度和ERA-Int的差别,讨论了最小梯度法用于边界层研究的不确定性。结果表明:青藏高原上COSMIC掩星和无线电探空数据检测的边界层高度相关系数为0.786,平均值偏差为0.049 km,均方根误差为0.363 km,COSMIC掩星数据检测的边界层高度和无线电探空的结果非常接近。青藏高原上边界层高度呈现西高东低的分布特征,高原中西部边界层高度主要为1.8—2.3 km,而高原东部边界层为1.4—1.8 km,最大值在高原西南部。青藏高原地区边界层有明显的季节差异,冬季高原上大部分地区边界层高度超过2.0 km;春季大部分地区高度降低,但在受印度季风影响的高原南部有明显的抬升,最大值可超过3.0 km;夏季高原上边界层高度开始升高,大部分地区超过1.8 km;秋季又开始回落。青藏高原以北塔克拉玛干沙漠和高原以南印度季风活动区是两个高值区,北部的沙漠地区边界层高度在夏季最高,南部印度季风活动区在季风爆发前（4月）达到全年最大值。青藏高原中西部地区有水平风辐合以及广泛的上升运动,为边界层的发展提供了动力条件,而东部的下沉运动对边界层的发展有抑制作用。青藏高原边界层各个季节的空间分布与地表感热通量分布一致。COSMIC掩星资料确定的边界层高度和ERA-Int相比,空间分布基本一致但ERA-Int边界层高度明显偏低。当有系统性强逆温存在的时候,或者云中液态水或冰水含量较大时,用最小梯度法检测的边界层高度不确定性增加。      

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for a size-resolved aerosol model: Implementation and application for particulate matter and gaseous pollutant forecasts across China

A three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation(DA) system is presented here based on a size-resolved sectional aerosol model, the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry(MOSAIC) within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry(WRF-Chem) model. The use of this approach means that both gaseous pollutants such as SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 as well as particulate matter(PM_(2.5), PM_(10)) observational data can be assimilated simultaneously.Two one-month parallel simulation experiments were conducted, one with the assimilation of surface hourly concentration observations of the above six pollutants released by the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre(CNEMC) and one without assimilation in order to verify the impact of assimilation on initial chemical fields and subsequent forecasts. Results show that, in the first place, use of the DA system can provide a more accurate model initial field. The root-mean-square error of PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 mass concentrations in analysis field fell by 29.27 μg m~(-3)(53.5%), 34.5 μg m~(-3)(50.9%),30.36 μg m~(-3)(64.2%), 8.91 μg m~(-3)(39.5%), 0.46 mg m~(-3)(47.4%), and 15.11 μg m~(-3)(51.0%), respectively, compared to a background field without assimilation. At the same time, mean fraction error was reduced by 42.6%, 53.1%, 45.2%, 43.1%,69.9%, and 48.8%, respectively, while the correlation coefficient increased by 0.51, 0.55, 0.48, 0.38, 0.47, 0.65, respectively.Secondly, the results of this analysis reveal variable benefits from assimilation on different pollutants. DA significantly improves PM_(2.5), PM_(10), and CO forecasts leading to positive effects that last more than 48 h. The positive effects of DA on SO_2 and O_3 forecasts last up to 8 h but that remains relatively poor for NO_2 forecasts. Thirdly, the influence of assimilation varies in different areas. It is possible that the positive effects of DA on PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) forecasts can last more than 48 h across most regions of China. Indeed, DA significantly improves SO_2 forecasts within 48 h over north China, and much longer CO assimilation benefits(48 h) are found in most regions apart from north and east China and across the Sichuan Basin. DA is able to improve O_3 forecasts within 48 h across China with the exception of southwest and northwest regions and the O_3 DA benefits in southern China are more evident, while from a spatial distribution perspective, NO_2 DA benefits remain relatively poor.     

基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究

由于地震孕育过程的复杂性和观测技术的局限性,不同地震观测资料表现出异常变化与后续较大地震的对应关系存在不确定性,因此对预测意见进行概率表达是一种科学恰当的做法。本文基于泊松分布的危险区背景地震概率预测和单项预测方法(包括测震、流体、形变、电磁等学科)的历史预测效能,采用贝叶斯定理计算得到单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果,进而采用综合概率方法,给出基于多种单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果。短期概率预测初步结果表明,2018年2～9月,中国大陆72%的5级以上地震都位于相对高概率预测区域。     

震前地倾斜跃变异常初探

本文对临震前地倾斜跃变异常的基本记录特点、跃变达到峰值后发震时间关系及跃变矢量与发震方位的关系等作了初步探讨。得到了以下三点认识: (1)地倾斜跃变异常从出现到峰值这段时间的两倍加一个常数便是未来地震的发震时间。(2)地倾斜跃变的矢量方位多指向或背向震中。(3)地倾斜跃变异常持续时间越长,幅度越大,一般发震的震级就越大。     

东海黑潮区海水中磷酸盐的分布特征及成因探讨

本文报道了1987年夏、冬两个航次在26°50′～32°30′N,124°30′～131°30′E海区中可溶性无机磷酸盐的调查结果,阐明了磷的分布特征和形成机制。结果表明陆架区表层测值较高,大洋区为低值区,底层则相反。大洋水常年分层,中层水有爬坡涌升现象,其浓度与Aou呈正相关,与pH和S呈负相关。夏、冬两季底层磷与Aou呈正相关,其浓度变化主要依赖于生物过程。     

高温加速度传感器关键技术研究

为了满足深井和核电站强震动观测需求,研制一种能在100℃ 130℃环境下有效连续工作的力平衡反馈加速度计,并重新设计其电路方案,主要利用高温分立元件重新设计检波及前后级放大电路,并对其余电路进行升级改造.样机实验结果表明:设计方案满足要求,具有一定的实用性.     

海洋和高原热状况对夏季风活动影响的初步分析

我国是世界上著名的季风气候区.但过去相当多的研究是从气候概念来理解季风的.实际上,各年季风的起迄日期有早有晚,而强度也不同.正是由于这种差异,造成了我国各地的旱涝灾害.因此从个别年来研究季风,并探讨形成季风年际变化可能的原因是十分必要的.本文尝试通过1971年与1972年季风活动的对比分析,一方面了解环流特征季节变化的异同,另一方面希望能对这两年旱涝产生的原因有一个更明确的认识.