几种台风资料的对比及台风年鉴数据的订正

通过对比分别采用台风年鉴、美国关岛联合台风警报中心(JTWC)和日本气象厅(东京区域专业气象中心)(JMA)的最佳台风路径资料,得到西北太平洋年热带低压强度以上(TC)和热带风暴强度以上(TS)的年频数、观测记录次数、破坏力强度等特征量,发现：⑴ 不同资料数据的差异随台风强度的增加而减小。分别基于CMA_SHI和JTWC资料的1950—1979年西北太平洋TC频数、TC观测次数存在明显差异,而TS差异性小得多,但年TS频数均值仍差异明显;⑵ 年代际分布上,1950年代差异较大,1970年代中期—1980年代差异较小,而1990年代中后期开始差异加大。进一步提出了对台风年鉴数据中风速和频数的订正方法。     

QuikSCAT风矢量快速反演的后向散射系数预处理算法

根据QuikSCAT的工作特点,提出了一种通过对QuikSCAT风矢量单元后向散射系数进行预处理,从而提高反演效率的快速算法.预处理算法将每个风矢量单元对应的后向散射系数按测量几何关系分为外波束前视、内波束前视、内波束后视、外波束后视观测4组,取每组后向散射系数平均值作为对应组的测量结果,再将作分组平均处理后的后向散射系数代入反演流程中,使得求目标函数值步骤中搜索查找表的次数减少到4次.与JPL业务化运行所选用的算法相比较,快速算法仅以损失少量风向信息为代价,将风矢量反演所需计算量减少到原来的1/3,极大地提高了运算效率,缩短了风矢量反演所需的时间,可为应对突发灾难性天气等特殊情况争时间.     

MEEMD-ARMA残差修正电离层TEC预测模型

提出一种改进的集总平均经验模态分解与自回归移动平均模型组合的残差修正模型,并利用2015年不同经纬度同一时段以及相同经纬度不同时段IGS提供的电离层电子总量数据,用3种模型对5 d内的数据进行预测。结果表明,改进模型5 d 内的平均相对精度为96%,而EMD-ARMA模型及ARMA模型分别为94.5%、93%。     

Standardization of CPUE for Chilean jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi) from Chinese trawl fleets in the high seas of the Southeast Pacific Ocean

The generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to the standardization of catch per unit effort (CPUE) for Chilean jack mackerel from Chinese factory trawl fishing fleets in the Southeast Pacific Ocean from 2001 to 2010 by removing the operational, environmental, spatial and temporal impacts. A total of 9 factors were selected to build the GLM and GAM, i.e., Year, Month, Vessel, La Niña and El Niño events (ELE), Latitude, Longitude, Sea surface temperature (SST), SST anomaly (SSTA), Nino3.4 index and an interaction term between Longitude and Latitude. The first 5 factors were significant components in the GLM, which in combination explained 27.34% of the total variance in nominal CPUE. In the stepwise GAM, all factors explained 30.78% of the total variance, with Month, Year and Vessel as the main factors influencing CPUE. The higher CPUE occurred during the period April to July at a SST range of 12–15°C and a SSTA range of 0.2–1.0°C. The CPUE was significantly higher in normal years compared with that in La Niña and El Niño years. The abundance of Chilean jack mackerel declined during 2001 and 2010, with an increase in 2007. This work provided the relative abundance index of Chilean jack mackerel for stock assessment by standardizing catch and effort data of Chinese trawl fisheries and examined the influence of temporal, spatial, environmental and fisheries operational factors on Chilean jack mackerel CPUE.     

煤矿地理信息系统空间数据引擎的设计

在煤矿地理信息系统中,现有的文件存储方式无法实现空间数据和属性数据的统一存储,难以保持数据一致性,不支持多用户并发处理,空间数据管理的效率有待提高。另外,由于煤矿空间数据的复杂性和特殊性,普通空间数据引擎难以应用。为此,本文提出了一种煤矿地理信息系统空间数据引擎,以解决煤矿空间数据的管理和存储问题。最后,结合试验验证了...     

一种选权迭代法的半参数回归模型在滑坡预测中的应用

传统抗差估计中的选权迭代法无法探测到模型的系统误差,而基于补偿最小二乘原理的半参数模型可以较好地分离出系统误差。通过建立选权迭代法的半参数回归模型,利用时间序列法、L曲线法分别确定模型中的正则化矩阵及平滑因子,并利用选权迭代法重新定权,同时降低了观测粗差和系统误差对参数估值的影响。通过仿真算例,并以重庆奉节县大坪滑坡实测数据为例,验证了选权迭代法的半参数回归方法应用到三峡库区滑坡预测的有效性和优越性。     

青藏高原东南缘壳幔力学耦合及其动力学意义

现代大陆动力学及构造学研究认为,壳内软弱带控制着地壳与地幔间相互作用的强弱,制约岩石圈层间的耦合关系,同时也影响地块的相互作用方式。这种耦合作用可以通过比较不同深度的形变和应力的相关特征来分析。青藏高原东南缘20～35 km的深度广泛存在低速带,有可能在现今地震及构造活动区内由壳内部分熔融承担了潜在的解耦功能。基于1999～2015年GPS坐标时间序列数据得到速度场,结合前人给出的SKS剪切波分裂数据,分析该区水平方向形变耦合特征;同时搜集莫霍面和岩石圈底面形变数据,给出垂向上的形变耦合特征。利用EGM2008重力模型的11～36阶球谐系数计算青藏高原东南缘岩石圈底面地幔对流应力场;搜集并整理2000年至今的1 131个震源机制解数据,采用区域应力张量阻尼反演法得到该区多震层应力场;进一步分析两种应力场的相关性。在ABAQUS软件中建立青藏高原东南缘岩石圈三维粘弹性有限元模型,同时加入上地壳的边界位移约束条件和底面地幔对流拖曳力加载条件,分别对水平方向和垂直方向的应力应变作分析,并给出强震剖面结果,探讨壳幔耦合强震孕育机制,据此分析青藏高原东南缘各个断层的地震危险性。研究认为,应力的不均匀发展是应变能积累的关键,同时垂向上圈层间的耦合关系极大地影响块体间的作用方式;壳内软弱带广泛发育的块体应力出现分层现象,边缘区域横向纵向应力变化明显,与之接触的上伏地壳地震危险性较高。     

山东省海洋牧场建设浅析

文章系统梳理了海洋牧场的概念以及国内外海洋牧场的发展概况,并详细分析了山东省海洋牧场建设的发展现状。加强海洋牧场建设将推动山东省继藻、贝、虾、鱼、参五次海水养殖浪潮之后的第六次海水养殖浪潮的发展。     

An Analysis of the Discontinuity in Chinese Radiosonde Temperature Data Using Satellite Observation as a Reference

Reconciling upper-air temperature trends derived from radiosonde and satellite observations is a necessary step to confidently determine the global warming rate. This study examines the raw and homogenized radiosonde observations over China and compares them with layer-mean atmospheric temperatures derived from satellite microwave observations for the lower-troposphere(TLT), mid-troposphere(TMT), upper-troposphere(TUT), and lower-stratosphere(TLS) by three research groups. Comparisons are for averages over China, excluding the Tibetan Plateau, and at individual stations where metadata contain information on radiosonde instrument changes. It is found that major differences between the satellite and radiosonde observations are related to artificial systematic changes. The radiosonde system updates in the early 2000 s over China caused significant discontinuities and led the radiosonde temperature trends to exhibit less warming in the middle and upper troposphere and more cooling in the lower stratosphere than satellite temperatures. Homogenized radiosonde data have been further adjusted by using the shift-point adjustment approaches to match with satellite products for China averages. The obtained trends during 1979–2015 from the re-adjusted radiosonde observation are respectively 0.203 ± 0.066, 0.128 ± 0.044, 0.034 ± 0.039, and –0.329 ± 0.135 K decade^–1 for TLT, TMT, TUT, and TLS equivalents. Compared to satellite trends, the re-adjusted radiosonde trends are within 0.01 K decade^–1 for TMT and TUT, 0.054 K decade^–1 warmer for TLT, and 0.051 K decade^–1 cooler for TLS. The results suggest that the use of satellite data as a reference is helpful in identifying and removing inhomogeneities of radiosonde temperatures over China and reconciling their trends to satellite microwave observations. Future efforts are to homogenize radiosonde temperatures at individual stations over China by using similar approaches.     

Starvation effects on pathogenic Vibrio alginolyticus in natural seawater

To get a better understanding of the starvation survival strategy of pathogenic Vibrio alginolyticus, log-phase cells were inoculated into sterile natural seawater for starvation studies. The results showed that all of total bacteria number, viable bacteria number and CFU number of V. alginolyticus increased remarkably at the initial starvation stage; after reaching their peaks at 5 d, both total bacteria number and viable bacteria number of V. alginolyticus fell slowly, while the CFU number fell more quickly after reaching its peak at 10 d; V. alginolyticus elongated their cells at the prophase of starvation, and then shrunk their volume and turned their shapes into ovals from rods at the anaphase of starvation; starved cells showed more sensitivity to heating and UV; starved cells showed no significant difference from unstarved ones at the lowest detection limit determined by indirect enzyme-linked immu- nosorbent assay （ELISA） ; starved cells＇ ability to adhere to the skin mucus of large yellow croaker （ Pseudosciaena crocea） showed a sharp decline as the starvation time increases; the cellular protein of V. alginolyticus increased remarkably at the ariaphase of starvation. The results indicated that pathogenic V. alginolyticus could survive in starvation for relatively long periods of time （ ≥2 months） in 28℃ natural seawater due to the morphological and physiological changes; however, starved V. alginolyticus cells showed less virulence and higher sensitivity under environmental stresses.