Evaluation of the integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement over the Tibetan Plateau

The availability of high-resolution satellite precipitation measurement products provides an opportunity to monitor precipitation over large and complex terrain and thus accurately evaluate the climatic, hydrological and ecological conditions in those regions. The Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM) mission is an important new program designed for global satellite precipitation estimation, but little information has been reported on the applicability of the GPM’s products for the Tibetan Plateau(TP). The object of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM(IMERG) Final Run product under different terrain and climate conditions over the TP by using 78 ground gauges from April 2014 to December 2017. The results showed the following:(1) the 3-year average daily precipitation estimation in the IMERG agrees well with the rain gauge observations(R~2=0.58, P0.01), and IMERG also has a considerable ability to detect precipitation, as indicated by a high probability of detection(78%-98%) and critical success index(65%-85%);(2) IMERG performed better at altitudes from 3000 m to 4000 m with a small relative bias(RB) of 6.4%. Precipitation change was not significantly affected by local relief;(3) the climate system of the TP was divided into four climate groups with a total of 12 climate types based on the K?ppen climate classification system, and IMERG performed well in all climate types with the exception of the arid-desert-cold climate(Bwk) type. Furthermore, although IMERG showed the potential to detect snowfall, it still exhibits deficiencies in identifying light and moderate snow. These results indicate that IMERG could provide more accurate precipitation data if its retrieval algorithm was improved for complex terrain and arid regions.     

Mechanism of toppling and deformation in hard rock slope: a case of bank slope of Hydropower Station,Qinghai Province,China

Recently, various toppling slopes have emerged with the development of hydropower projects in the western mountainous regions of China. The slope on the right bank of the Laxiwa Hydropower Station, located on the mainstream of the Yellow River in the Qinghai Province of Northwest China, is a typical hard rock slope. Further, its deformation characteristics are different from those of common natural hard rock toppling. Because this slope is located close to the dam of the hydropower station, its deformation mechanism has a practical significance. Based on detailed geological engineering surveys, four stages of deformation have been identified using discrete element numerical software and geological engineering analysis methods, including toppling creep, initial toppling deformation, intensified toppling deformation, and current slope formation. The spatial and time-related deformation of this site also exhibited four stages, including initial toppling, toppling development, intensification of toppling, and disintegration and collapse. Subsequently, the mechanism of toppling and deformation of the bank slope were studied. The results of this study exhibit important reference value for developing the prevention–control design of toppling and for ensuring operational safety in the hydropower reservoir area.     

Dynamic changes in lakes in the Hoh Xil region before and after the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake

Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.     

Detecting and attributing vegetation changes in Taihang Mountain,China

Attributing vegetation changes provide fundamental information for ecosystem management,especially in mountainous areas which has vulnerable ecosystems. Based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) data, the spatial-temporal change of vegetation was detected in Taihang Mountain(THM) from 2000 to 2014. The topographical factors were introduced to interpret the response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities. Results showed that the avegaged NDVI during growing season showed a single-peak curve distribution, with the largest value(0.628) among 1600-1800 m. A significant greening trend was detected in THM, with the largest increasing rate(0.0078 yr~(-1)) among the elevation of1600-1800 m and slope gradient between 3~5°. The partial correlation and multiple correlation analyses indicated that vegetation variation in more than81.8% pixels of the THM was mainly impacted by human activities. In the low elevation zones less than1000 m, increasing precipitation is the principle factor promoting vegetation restoration, whereas in the high elevation zones of THM, temperature is the restricted factors impacting vegetation variation.Considering the dramatic climate change in the future,further studies should be conducted to explore inherent mechanism of vegetation growth to dynamic environment changes.     

Assessing effects of “source-sink” landscape on non-point source pollution based on cell units of a small agricultural catchment

Ascertaining the relationship between "source-sink" landscape and non-point source(NPS) pollution is crucial for reducing NPS pollution, however, it is not easy to realize this target on cell unit scale. To reveal the relationships between "sourcesink" landscape and NPS pollution based on cell units of a small catchment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region(TGRR), the runoff and nutrient yields were simulated first by rainfall events on a cell unit scale based on the Annualized AGricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Model(AnnAGNPS). Landscape structure and pattern were quantified with "sourcesink" landscape indicators based on cell units including landscape area indices and locationweighted landscape indices. The results showed that:the study case of small Wangjiagou catchment highlighted a good prediction capability of runoff and nutrient export by the AnnAGNPS model. Throughout the catchment, the spatial distribution trends of four location-weighted landscape indices were similar to the trends of simulated total nitrogen(TN) and total phosphorus(TP), which highlighted the importance of spatial arrangement of "source" and "sink" landscape types in a catchment when estimating pollutant loads. Results by Pearson correlation analysis indicated that the location-weighted landscape index provided a more comprehensive account of multiple factors, and can better reflect NPS-related nutrient loss than other landscape indices applied in single-factor analysis. This study provides new findings for applying the "source-sink" landscape indices based on cell units in small catchments to explain the effect of "source-sink" landscape on nutrient export based on cell unit, and helps improve the understanding of the correlation between "source-sink" landscape and NPS pollution.     

Base cation concentrations in forest litter and topsoil have different responses to climate and tree species along elevational gradients

The forest litter is an essential reservoir of nutrients in forests, supplying a large part of absorbable base cations(BC) to topsoil, and facilitating plant growth within litter-soil system. To characterize elevational patterns of base cation concentrations in the forest litter and topsoil, and explore the effects of climate and tree species, we measured microclimate and collected the forest litter and topsoil(0-10 cm) samples across an elevational range of more than 2000 m(1243 ～ 3316 m a.s.l.),and analyzed the concentrations of BC in laboratory. Results showed that: 1) litter Ca concentration displayed a hump-shaped pattern along the elevational gradients, but litter K and Mg showed saddle-shaped patterns. Soil Ca concentration increased with elevation, while soil K and Mg had no significant changes. 2) Ca concentration in the forest litter under aspen(Populus davidiana) was significantly higher than that in all other species, but in topsoil, Ca concentration was higher under coniferous larch and fir(Larix chinensis and Abies fargesii). Litter K and Mg concentrations was higher under coniferous larch and fir, whereas there were nosignificant differences among tree species in the concentrations of K and Mg in topsoil. 3) Climatic factors including mean annual temperature(MAT), growing season precipitation(GSP) and non-growing season precipitation(NGSP) determined BC concentrations in the forest litter and topsoil. Soil C/N and C/P also influenced BC cycling between litter and soil. Observation along elevations within different tree species implies that above-ground tree species can redistribute below-ground cations, and this process is profoundly impacted by climate. Litter and soil Ca, K and Mg with different responses to environmental variables depend on their soluble capacity and mobile ability.     

鄂尔多斯盆地前寒武纪末期古地貌恢复及其对烃源岩的控制作用

鄂尔多斯盆地前寒武纪末期古地貌控制着后期沉积体系的空间配置与古地理展布。通过野外剖面、岩芯分析、测井数据等建立鄂尔多斯盆地寒武系层序地层格架;选取寒武纪SS1最大海泛面(徐庄组沉积晚期地层)为标志层,通过残余厚度印模法,并结合古地质图分析,对研究区前寒武纪进行古地貌恢复,明确了前寒武纪沉积背景、构造格局及物源方向。总体上,前寒武纪鄂尔多斯盆地南、北濒临秦祁海和兴蒙海,东、西被贺兰和晋豫陕坳拉槽所夹持,古地貌东北高、西南低,受秦祁海影响最大,可将其划分为3个古构造地貌单元:高地剥蚀区、受古构造控制形成的坳陷区以及处于剥蚀与沉积过渡地带的斜坡阶地区。通过研究前寒武纪末期古地貌与寒武纪早期烃源岩分布认为,拉张活动背景下的坳陷带以及斜坡带是鄂尔多斯盆地寒武纪早期烃源岩发育的有利区块,前寒武纪古地貌格局影响了寒武纪早期烃源岩发育与分布。恢复古地貌形态对于揭示物源供给,研究沉积物搬运、平面和纵向展布特征,探究沉积、沉降中心的迁移规律,以及进一步揭示生储盖组合和分布具有重大意义。     

2001-2015年中国植被覆盖人为影响的时空格局

基于MODIS-NDVI和气温、降水数据,使用基于变异系数的人为影响模型定量计算了2001-2015年中国植被覆盖人为影响,辅以趋势分析、Hurst指数等方法探讨了中国植被覆盖人为影响的时空变化特征及未来演变趋势。研究发现：① 2001-2015年,中国植被覆盖人为影响由南向北空间分异愈发明显,年均值为-0.0102,植被覆盖在人类活动影响下轻微减少,负影响面积占51.59%,略大于正影响面积。② 中国植被覆盖人为影响年际变化特征明显,整体呈负影响波动减少趋势,降速为0.5%/10a,其中正影响、负影响均呈增大趋势,正影响增速（0.3%/10a）远大于负影响（0.02%/10a）。③ 2001-2015年间,中国植被覆盖人为正影响重心向东北方向移动,负影响重心向西南方向移动,东北部植被覆盖在人为影响下不断改善,西南部人类活动对植被破坏程度不断增大。④ 中国植被覆盖人为影响主要呈负影响减少和正影响增大趋势,面积占比分别为28.14%和25.21%,生态环境趋于改善。⑤ Hurst指数分析表明,中国植被覆盖人为影响未来演变趋势的反向特征强于正向特征,主要呈人为负影响先减少后增大趋势,面积占比15.59%。     

1960-2015年青海三江源地区降水时空特征

青海三江源地区是中国生态系统最为敏感和脆弱的地区,其降水特别是生长季降水的波动,是影响本区及江河中下游水资源安全、生态系统可持续发展的关键因素。综合线性趋势、Mann-Kendall检验、BG分割算法、R/S、EEMD等多方法细致辨识了1960-2015年研究区降水量序列的时空特征。结果显示：① 三江源降水量总体呈现弱增趋势,21世纪以来降水量显著增加,各子源区气候倾向率不尽相同;② 年、季降水量自东南向西北递减,澜沧江源区夏季降水和黄河源区秋季降水呈弱减趋势,雨量弱减区在空间上呈斑块状分布;③ 年、季降水量年代际变化和增湿率的空间差异较明显,春夏季降水气候倾向率与经纬度、海拔的复相关性显著高于冬季;④ 20世纪90年代中后期,各子源区降水总体显现增强信号,并于2002年前后发生突变;⑤ 年际和低值年代际显著周期是造成降水量变动的主要因素;⑥ 除澜沧江源区夏季降水趋于减少外,其他年、季降水量变化呈现增幅不一的转湿趋势;⑦ 横向比较各子源区可见,长江源区降水变化更能表征高原气候变化。研究结果显示,研究区降水时空序列变化具有明显的区域和季节差异性特征,与以往类似研究存在些许差异,可见为有效提高气候序列演变过程及突变诊断的准确性,仍需进一步融合多方法实施集成分析。     

社会-生态系统适应性治理研究进展与展望

社会—生态系统（SES）由社会子系统、生态子系统及两者的交互作用构成,具有不同于社会系统或生态系统单独具有的结构、功能和复杂特征。社会—生态系统适应性治理旨在通过适应性的社会权利分配与行为决策机制,使社会—生态系统能够在动态条件下可持续地保障人类福祉。适应性治理理论的形成受到“公共池塘资源管理”“韧性”和“治理”3方面理论的影响,并为“转型治理”与“协作治理”提供了建构基础。该理论具有以下3个主要目的：① 理解和应对社会—生态系统多稳态、非线性、不确定性、整体性以及复杂性;② 建立非对抗性的社会结构、权利分配制度以及行为决策体系,匹配社会子系统与自然子系统;③ 通过综合方法管理生态系统,使其可持续提供生态系统服务。因此,面对人类行为主导地表过程的“人类世”,实现适应性治理有助于应对社会—生态系统的复杂性与不确定性。鉴于中国的生态环境正处于迅速变化时期,且中国与世界各国间的相互影响日益复杂,未来研究可重点关注以下3个方面：① 理解耦合系统的多元互动过程,增强适应能力;② 强调社会—生态系统的整体性研究;③ 提高环境变化背景下理解和预测系统动态的能力。