Tracing variability of run‐off generation in mountainous permafrost of semi‐arid north‐eastern Mongolia

The headwaters of mountainous, discontinuous permafrost regions in north‐eastern Mongolia are important water resources for the semi‐arid country, but little is known about hydrological processes there. Run‐off generation on south‐facing slopes, which are devoid of permafrost, has so far been neglected and is totally unknown for areas that have been affected by recent forest fires. To fill this knowledge gap, the present study applied artificial tracers on a steppe‐vegetated south‐facing and on two north‐facing slopes, burned and unburned. Combined sprinkling and dye tracer experiments were used to visualize processes of infiltration and water fluxes in the unsaturated zone. On the unburned north‐facing slope, rapid and widespread infiltration through a wet organic layer was observed down to the permafrost. On the burned profile, rapid infiltration occurred through a combusted organic and underlying mineral layer. Stained water seeped out at the bottom of both profiles suggesting a general tendency to subsurface stormflow (SSF). Ongoing SSF could directly be studied 24 h after a high‐intensity rainfall event on a 55‐m hillslope section in the burned forest. Measurements of water temperature proved the role of the permafrost layer as a base horizon for SSF. Repeated tracer injections allowed direct insights into SSF dynamics: A first injection suggested rather slow dispersive subsurface flow paths; whereas 18 h later, a second injection traced a more preferential flow system with 20 times quicker flow velocities. We speculate that these pronounced SSF dynamics are limited to burned slopes where a thermally insulating organic layer is absent. On three south‐facing soil profiles, the applied tracer remained in the uppermost 5 cm of a silt‐rich mineral soil horizon. No signs of preferential infiltration could be found, which suggested reduced biological activity under a harsh, dry and cold climate. Instead, direct observations, distributed tracers and charcoal samples provided evidence for the occurrence of overland flow. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow accumulation distribution inferred from time‐lapse photography and simple modelling

The spatial and temporal distribution of snow accumulation is complex and significantly influences the hydrological characteristics of mountain catchments. Many snow redistribution processes, such as avalanching, slushflow or wind drift, are controlled by topography, but their modelling remains challenging. In situ measurements of snow accumulation are laborious and generally have a coarse spatial or temporal resolution. In this respect, time‐lapse photography shows itself as a powerful tool for collecting information at relatively low cost and without the need for direct field access. In this paper, the snow accumulation distribution of an Alpine catchment is inferred by adjusting a simple snow accumulation model combined with a temperature index melt model to match the modelled melt‐out pattern evolution to the pattern monitored during an ablation season through terrestrial oblique photography. The comparison of the resulting end‐of‐winter snow water equivalent distribution with direct measurements shows that the achieved accuracy is comparable with that obtained with an inverse distance interpolation of the point measurements. On average over the ablation season, the observed melt‐out pattern can be reproduced correctly in 93% of the area visible from the fixed camera. The relations between inferred snow accumulation distribution and topographic variables indicate large scatter. However, a significant correlation with local slope is found and terrain curvature is detected as a factor limiting the maximal snow accumulation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vegetation history and environmental development since ca 6000 cal yr BP in and around Ispani 2 (Kolkheti lowlands,Georgia)

The Kolkheti lowlands of western Georgia have a unique vegetation and a rich cultural history. Palynological and macrofossil analysis accompanied by AMS ¹⁴C-dates of the deposits of the Ispani 2 mire near Kobuleti allow the reconstruction of regional vegetation, environmental history and local peatland development within the context of Black Sea level and cultural changes. Comparison of two adjacent peatland cores confirms spatial differences in wetland development. Prior to 5400 cal yr BP, the Ispani basin was a floodplain of an active river system where overbank deposits with fluvially transported Castanea pollen were deposited. Subsequently, a lake or lagoon developed in which reeds expanded. These were succeeded by herb-rich open alder carrs. After 1900 cal yr BP, Carpinus and Fagus expanded on the dry grounds, where formerly Quercus was more abundant. Also Castanea declined. Local reedbeds, that burned regularly, succeeded the alder carr. After 1000 cal yr BP, a percolation bog developed resulting in the formation of 4 m of loose, porous, and largely undecomposed Sphagnum austinii peat with Molinia roots. The upper 50 cm of the analysed section show extensive human impact on the landscape during the 20th century.     

A composite Fe,Ni‐FeS and enstatite‐forsterite‐diopside‐glass vitrophyre clast in the Larkman Nunatak 04316 aubrite: Origin by pyroclastic volcanism

Abstract– We studied the mineralogy, petrology, and bulk, trace element, oxygen, and noble gas isotopic compositions of a composite clast approximately 20 mm in diameter discovered in the Larkman Nunatak (LAR) 04316 aubrite regolith breccia. The clast consists of two lithologies: One is a quench‐textured intergrowth of troilite with spottily zoned metallic Fe,Ni which forms a dendritic or cellular structure. The approximately 30 μm spacings between the Fe,Ni arms yield an estimated cooling rate of this lithology of approximately 25–30 °C s^?1. The other is a quench‐textured enstatite‐forsterite‐diopside‐glass vitrophyre lithology. The composition of the clast suggests that it formed at an exceptionally high degree of partial melting, perhaps approaching complete melting, and that the melts from which the composite clast crystallized were quenched from a temperature of approximately 1380–1400 °C at a rate of approximately 25–30 °C s^?1. The association of the two lithologies in a composite clast allows, for the first time, an estimation of the cooling rate of a silicate vitrophyre in an aubrite of approximately 25–30 °C s^?1. While we cannot completely rule out an impact origin of the clast, we present what we consider is very strong evidence that this composite clast is one of the elusive pyroclasts produced during pyroclastic volcanism on the aubrite parent body ( Wilson and Keil 1991 ). We further suggest that this clast was not ejected into space but retained on the aubrite parent body by virtue of the relatively large size of the clast of approximately 20 mm. Our modeling, taking into account the size of the clast, suggests that the aubrite parent body must have been between approximately 40 and 100 km in diameter, and that the melt from which the clast crystallized must have contained an estimated maximum range of allowed volatile mass fractions between approximately 500 and approximately 4500 ppm.     

Multi-stage reaction history in different eclogite types from the Pakistan Himalaya and implications for exhumation processes

Metabasites were sampled from rock series of the subducted margin of the Indian Plate, the so-called Higher Himalayan Crystalline, in the Upper Kaghan Valley, Pakistan. These vary from corona dolerites, cropping out around Saif-ul-Muluk in the south, to coesite–eclogite close to the suture zone against rocks of the Kohistan arc in the north. Bulk rock major- and trace- element chemistry reveals essentially a single protolith as the source for five different eclogite types, which differ in fabric, modal mineralogy as well as in mineral chemistry. The study of newly-collected samples reveals coesite (confirmed by in situ Raman spectroscopy) in both garnet and omphacite. All eclogites show growth of amphiboles during exhumation. Within some coesite-bearing eclogites the presence of glaucophane cores to barroisite is noted whereas in most samples porphyroblastic sodic–calcic amphiboles are rimmed by more aluminous calcic amphibole (pargasite, tschermakite, and edenite). Eclogite facies rutile is replaced by ilmenite which itself is commonly surrounded by titanite. In addition, some eclogite bodies show leucocratic segregations containing phengite, quartz, zoisite and/or kyanite. The important implication is that the complex exhumation path shows stages of initial cooling during decompression (formation of glaucophane) followed by reheating: a very similar situation to that reported for the coesite-bearing eclogite series of the Tso Morari massif, India, 450 km to the south-east.     

Late Pleistocene fluvial dynamics in the Hochrhein Valley and in the Upper Rhine Graben: chronological frame

During the Pleistocene, the Rhine glacier system acted as a major south–north erosion and transport medium from the Swiss Alps into the Upper Rhine Graben, which has been the main sediment sink forming low angle debris fans. Only some aggradation resulted in the formation of terraces. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon dating have been applied to set up a more reliable chronological frame of Late Pleistocene and Holocene fluvial activity in the western Hochrhein Valley and in the southern part of the Upper Rhine Graben. The stratigraphically oldest deposits exposed, a braided-river facies, yielded OSL age estimates ranging from 59.6 ± 6.2 to 33.1 ± 3.0 ka. The data set does not enable to distinguish between a linear age increase triggered by a continuous autocyclical aggradation or two (or more) age clusters, for example around 35 ka and around 55 ka, triggered by climate change, including stadial and interstadial periods (sensu Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles). The braided river facies is discontinuously (hiatus) covered by coarse-grained gravel-rich sediments deposited most likely during a single event or short-time period of major melt water discharge postdating the Last Glacial Maximum. OSL age estimates of fluvial and aeolian sediments from the above coarse-grained sediment layer are between 16.4 ± 0.8 and 10.6 ± 0.5 ka, and make a correlation with the Late Glacial period very likely. The youngest fluvial aggradation period correlates to the beginning of the Little Ice Age, as confirmed by OSL and radiocarbon ages.     

On the Effect of Surface Heat-Flux Heterogeneities on the Mixed-Layer-Top Entrainment

We used a set of large-eddy simulations to investigate the effect of one-dimensional stripe-like surface heat-flux heterogeneities on mixed-layer top entrainment. The profiles of sensible heat flux and the temporal evolution of the boundary-layer depth revealed decreased entrainment for small heat-flux amplitudes and increased entrainment for large heat-flux amplitudes, compared to the homogeneously-heated mixed layer. For large heat-flux amplitudes the largest entrainment was observed for patch sizes in the order of the boundary-layer depth, while for significantly smaller or larger patch sizes entrainment was similar as in the homogeneous case. In order to understand the underlying physics of this impact, a new approach was developed to infer local information on entrainment by means of the local flux divergence. We found an entrainment maximum over the centre of the stronger heated surface patch, where thermal energy is accumulated by the secondary circulation (SC) that was induced by the surface heterogeneity. Furthermore, we observed an entrainment maximum over the less heated patch as well, which we suppose is to be linked to the SC-induced horizontal flow convergence at the top of the convective boundary layer (CBL). For small heat-flux amplitudes a counteracting effect dominates that decreases entrainment, which we suppose is the horizontal advection of cold air in the lower, and warm air in the upper, CBL by the SC, stabilizing the CBL and thus weakening thermal convection. Moreover, we found that a mean wind can reduce the heterogeneity-induced impact on entrainment. If the flow is aligned perpendicular to the border between the differentially-heated patches, the SC and thus its impact on entrainment vanishes due to increased horizontal mixing, even for moderate wind speeds. However, if the flow is directed parallel to the border between the differentially-heated patches, the SC and thus its impact on entrainment persists.     

Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 478 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from nineteen studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5 °C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 63 %. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are +28 % and +23 %, respectively. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.     

Compliance for uncertain inventories via probabilistic/fuzzy comparison of alternatives

A direct comparison among highly uncertain inventories of emissions is inadequate and may lead to paradoxes. This issue is of particular importance in the case of greenhouse gases. This paper reviews the methods for the comparison of uncertain inventories in the context of compliance checking. The problem is treated as a comparison of uncertain alternatives. It provides a categorization and ranking of the inventories which can induce compliance checking conditions. Two groups of techniques to compare uncertain estimates are considered in the paper: probabilistic and fuzzy approaches. They show certain similarities which are revealed and stressed throughout the paper. The group of methods most suitable for the compliance purpose is distinguished. They introduce new conditions for fulfilling compliance, depending on inventory uncertainty. These new conditions considerably change the present approach, where only the reported values of inventories are accounted for.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.