Assessment of ECMWF-derived tropospheric delay models within the EUREF Permanent Network

The Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from the EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) are routinely analyzed by the EPN analysis centers using a tropospheric delay modeling based on standard pressure values, the Niell Mapping Functions (NMF), a cutoff angle of 3° and down-weighting of low elevation observations. We investigate the impact on EPN station heights and Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) estimates when changing to improved models recommended in the updated 2003 International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) Conventions, which are the Vienna Mapping Functions 1 (VMF1) and zenith hydrostatic delays derived from numerical weather models, or the empirical Global Mapping Functions (GMF) and the empirical Global Pressure and Temperature (GPT) model. A 1-year Global Positioning System (GPS) data set of 50 regionally distributed EPN/IGS (International GNSS Service) stations is processed. The GPS analysis with cutoff elevation angles of 3, 5, and 10° revealed that changing to the new recommended models introduces biases in station heights in the northern part of Europe by 2–3 mm if the cutoff is lower than 5°. However, since large weather changes at synoptic time scales are not accounted for in the empirical models, repeatability of height and ZTD time series are improved with the use of a priori Zenith Hydrostatic Delays (ZHDs) derived from numerical weather models and VMF1. With a cutoff angle of 3°, the repeatability of station heights in the northern part of Europe is improved by 3–4 mm.     

Multiscale modeling of a sensitive marine clay

This paper examines the mechanical behavior of a sensitive marine clay. Various laboratory tests on intact and reconstituted samples of Guinea Gulf marine clay were performed under isotropic compression and drained triaxial compression at constant confining stresses. Microstructure analysis on intact and reconstituted samples was also carried out under different loading conditions. The effect of inter‐aggregates bonding on mechanical properties is discussed. Based on experimental analysis, a new modeling method is proposed. In this approach, the clay is regarded as an assembly of aggregates of clay particles. An inter‐aggregate contact law is introduced relating contact forces to aggregates relative displacements. The deformation of the assembly can be obtained by integrating the movement of the inter‐aggregate contacts in all orientations. Thus, the effect of inter‐aggregates bonds and debonding is considered in a direct way. The model is evaluated through comparisons between the predicted and measured results on Guinea Gulf marine clay. The evolutions of local stresses, strains, and bonds in inter‐aggregates planes are discussed to explain the anisotropy induced by the applied loading. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is earthquake activity along the French Atlantic margin favoured by local rheological contrasts?

The seismological study of recent seismic crises near Oleron Island confirms the coexistence of an extensional deformation and a transtensive regime in the Atlantic margin of France, which is different from the general western European stress field corresponding to a strike-slip regime. We argue that the switch of the principal stress axes σ₁/σ₂ in a NW–SE vertical plane is linked with the existence of crustal heterogeneities. Events of magnitude larger than 5 sometimes occur along the Atlantic margin of France, such as the 7 September 1972 (M_L = 5.2) earthquake near Oleron island and the 30 September 2002 (M_L = 5.7) Hennebont event in Brittany. To test the mechanism of local strain localization, we model the deformation of the hypocentral area of the Hennebont earthquake using a 3D thermo-mechanical finite element code. We conclude that the occurrence of moderate earthquakes located in limited parts of the Hercynian shear zones (as the often reactivated swarms near Oleron) could be due to local reactivation of pre-existing faults. These sporadic seismic ruptures are favoured by stress concentration due to rheological heterogeneities.     

Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France

Abstract

Heavy rainfall events often occur in southern French Mediterranean regions during the autumn, leading to catastrophic flood events. A non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) model with climatic covariates for these heavy rainfall events is developed herein. A regional sample of events exceeding the threshold of 100 mm/d is built using daily precipitation data recorded at 44 stations over the period 1958–2008. The POT model combines a Poisson distribution for the occurrence and a generalized Pareto distribution for the magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. The selected covariates are the seasonal occurrence of southern circulation patterns for the Poisson distribution parameter, and monthly air temperature for the generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. According to the deviance test, the non-stationary model provides a better fit to the data than a classical stationary model. Such a model incorporating climatic covariates instead of time allows one to re-evaluate the risk of extreme precipitation on a monthly and seasonal basis, and can also be used with climate model outputs to produce future scenarios. Existing scenarios of the future changes projected for the covariates included in the model are tested to evaluate the possible future changes on extreme precipitation quantiles in the study area.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Tramblay, Y., Neppel, L., Carreau, J., and Najib, K., 2013. Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 280–294.     

Evidencing a large body of ice in a rock glacier,Vanoise Massif,Northern French Alps

The Sachette rock glacier is an active rock glacier located between 2660 and 2480 m a.s.l. in the Vanoise Massif, Northern French Alps (45° 29′ N, 6° 52′ E). In order to characterize its status as permafrost feature, shallow ground temperatures were monitored and the surface velocity measured by photogrammetry. The rock glacier exhibits near‐surface thermal regimes suggesting permafrost occurrence and also displays significant surface horizontal displacements (0.6–1.3 ± 0.6 m yr^–1). In order to investigate its internal structure, a ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) survey was performed. Four constant‐offset GPR profiles were performed and analyzed to reconstruct the stratigraphy and model the radar wave velocity in two dimensions. Integration of the morphology, the velocity models and the stratigraphy revealed, in the upper half of the rock glacier, the good correspondence between widespread high radar wave velocities (>0.15–0.16 m ns^–1) and strongly concave reflector structures. High radar wave velocity (0.165–0.170 m ns^–1) is confirmed with the analysis of two punctual common mid‐point measurements in areas of exposed shallow pure ice. These evidences point towards the existence of a large buried body of ice in the upper part of the rock glacier. The rock glacier was interpreted to result from the former advance and decay of a glacier onto pre‐existing deposits, and from subsequent creep of the whole assemblage. Our study of the Sachette rock glacier thus highlights the rock glacier as a transitional landform involving the incorporation and preservation of glacier ice in permafrost environments with subsequent evolution arising from periglacial processes.     

Robustness and uncertainties of seismic damage estimates at urban scale: a methodological comparison on the example of the city of Oran (Algeria)

The city of Oran is exposed to a significant seismic hazard, as almost all the northern Algeria territory, where numerous casualties and severe damage occurred in the last decades due to several moderate to large earthquakes. A mitigation policy should include the establishment of priorities to reduce the vulnerability of existing buildings based on the knowledge of the actual urban fabrics. The complexity of vulnerability assessment requires a gradual approach from the urban scale to the building scale. The study reported in this paper corresponds to the first step of such an approach, i.e., a preliminary study of the seismic vulnerability and expected damage within an urban district of the city of Oran, based on a non-dedicated data base from a building survey previously performed for other purposes. The main goals of this study are twofold: (1) an assessment of the degree of uncertainty and robustness of such results through a comparison of the results derived from different urban vulnerability methods (GNDT 2; RISK-UE LM1; and VULNERALP 2.0) and (2) an assessment of the actual level of seismic risk in the city of Oran. Cross-method comparisons and correlations highlight a satisfactory agreement between mean damage estimates at the urban scale, despite significant scattering at the single building scale, and uncertainty levels which vary significantly from one method to the other. For a given scenario, the three methods provide damage estimates lying within half an EMS damage degree of one another, with some systematic positive bias for VULNERALP and negative bias for RISK-UE LM1, especially for masonry buildings. The expected mean damage is very important for intensities 9 and 10, with an average damage grade around 3–4 for intensity 9 and 4–5 for intensity 10. The spatial distribution of damage systematically exhibits larger values in the northern, older, commercial area, than in the southern, more recent and more residential area, in relation to the building typology and the existence of several aggravating factors. Some areas of higher vulnerability / damage can be distinguished, which should receive particular attention for retrofitting priorities or urban planning decisions, also taking into account their cultural heritage value.     

Local versus regional processes: can soil characteristics overcome climate and fire regimes by modifying vegetation trajectories?

We analysed charcoal and pollen from sediments obtained from two lakes in the northwestern mixed‐wood Canadian boreal forest in order to reconstruct fire‐return intervals and vegetation dynamics over the last 8000 years. Sites were selected with contrasting soil properties (mesic versus dry‐sandy soils), allowing an estimation of the potential influence of soils on long‐term vegetation and fire dynamics. The sites likely experienced fewer fires during the period extending from 8000 to 4000 cal. a BP than over the last 4000 years. At both sites, eastern white pine (Pinus strobus) populations were most extensive shortly after deglaciation, with vegetation later shifting towards mixed woodlands with less P. strobus and more extensive Picea and Pinus banksiana populations. This gradual vegetation shift was probably induced by the establishment of colder and moister conditions along with a fire‐regime change. In spite of the parallel long‐term vegetation trajectories, vegetation composition differed between the two sites in both the past and present. Whereas Picea was more abundant at the mesic site, the fire‐adapted P. banksiana populations were more extensive at the sandy‐soil site. These differences in vegetation composition indicate that, in addition to climate changes and fire occurrence, soil properties also influenced vegetation dynamics. A likely increase in fire frequency in the Canadian boreal forest during the 21st century might therefore favour the expansion of these two disturbance‐adapted trees with spatial heterogeneity in the populations due to varying soil types. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimization techniques for identifying soil parameters in geotechnical engineering: Comparative study and enhancement

A comparative study of optimization techniques for identifying soil parameters in geotechnical engineering was first presented. The identification methodology with its 3 main parts, error function, search strategy, and identification procedure, was introduced and summarized. Then, current optimization methods were reviewed and classified into 3 categories with an introduction to their basic principles and applications in geotechnical engineering. A comparative study on the identification of model parameters from a synthetic pressuremeter and an excavation tests was then performed by using 5 among the mostly common optimization methods, including genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, the differential evolution algorithm and the artificial bee colony algorithm. The results demonstrated that the differential evolution had the strongest search ability but the slowest convergence speed. All the selected methods could reach approximate solutions with very small objective errors, but these solutions were different from the preset parameters. To improve the identification performance, an enhanced algorithm was developed by implementing the Nelder‐Mead simplex method in a differential algorithm to accelerate the convergence speed with strong reliable search ability. The performance of the enhanced optimization algorithm was finally highlighted by identifying the Mohr‐Coulomb parameters from the 2 same synthetic cases and from 2 real pressuremeter tests in sand, and ANICREEP parameters from 2 real pressuremeter tests in soft clay.     

Thermal Influence of an Alpine Deep Hydrothermal Fault on the Surrounding Rocks

Major fault zones in mountain areas are often associated with cold‐water circulations and hydrothermal pathways. Compared with the massif as a whole, the deep groundwater flows in these high hydraulic‐conductivity zones modify the thermal state of the surrounding rock. This paper examines the thermal effects of groundwater flow in the area around the steeply dipping La Léchère deep fault zone (LFZ, French Alps) and associated shallow decompressed zone. We used a 3D numerical model drawn up from groundwater circulation data to investigate the La Léchère hydrothermal system and the thermal state of the rock in the valley sides. Hydrothermal simulations showed that convective flow into the LFZ cools the valley sides and creates a thermal upwelling under the valley floor. An unsteady thermal regime that continues for about 10,000 years is also needed to obtain the temperatures currently found under the valley floor in the LFZ. Temperature‐depth profiles around the LFZ show disturbances in the thermal gradients in the valley sides and the valley floor. Convective heat transfer into the LFZ and the decompressed zone, and conductive heat transfer in the surrounding rocks produce an unsteady, asymmetric thermal state in the rock on both sides of the LFZ.     

Using ice‐scars as indicators of exposure to physical lakeshore disturbances,Corvette Lake,northern Québec,Canada

The hypothesis tested in this study is that ice‐scars recorded by lakeshore tree stands can be used as an integrative proxy indicator of the overall hydrodynamic disturbance regimes affecting northern lakeshores. A 2‐km‐long shore segment was divided into 21 sections according to shore orientation and slope. An ice‐scar chronology and a wave exposure index value were obtained for each shore section. A significant relationship was found between ice‐scar chronology and wave exposure index, which indicates that the mechanical action and physical force of ice activity mainly depend on the same environmental factors determining exposure to wave action (i.e. fetch, wind direction and velocity, and shore slope). The spatial and temporal variability of ice‐scar chronology features also corresponded to the distribution of geomorphological features associated with ice activity along the shoreline. Analysis of the hydrological signal associated with these ice‐scar chronology features indicated that an increase in ice‐push frequency observed in the 1930s can be associated to an increase in wave action related to more frequent spring floods maintaining high lake levels during the ice‐free period. This study demonstrates that ice‐scars have strong potential as proxy indicators of shore exposure and provide a temporal frame to reconstruct the history of lakeshore disturbance regimes at a local scale. Together, ice‐scars and wave exposure index provide essential information to interpret the evolution of lakeshore vegetation mosaics in time and space. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.