Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a reorganization of the North Atlantic's current pattern (technically known as a thermohaline circulation collapse). This circulation system now warms north-western Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited collapse of this system could produce severe cooling in northwestern Europe, even when general global warming is in progress. In this paper we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Adding the constraint of avoiding a thermohaline circulation collapse would significantly reduce the allowable greenhouse gas emissions in the long run along an optimal path. Our analysis implies that relatively small damages associated with a collapse (less than 1% of gross world product) would justify a considerable reduction of future carbon dioxide emissions. 相似文献
Recharge processes of karst aquifers are difficult to assess given their strong heterogeneity and the poorly known effect of vadose zone on infiltration. However, recharge assessment is crucial for the evaluation of groundwater resources. Moreover, the vulnerability of karst aquifers depends on vadose zone behaviour because it is the place where most contamination takes place. In this work, an in situ experimental approach was performed to identify and quantify flow and storage processes occurring in karst vadose zone. Cave percolation monitoring and dye tracing were used to investigate unsaturated zone hydrological processes. Two flow components (diffuse and quick) were identified and, respectively, account for 66% and 34% of the recharge. Quickflow was found to be the result of bypass phenomenon in vadose zone related to water saturation. We identify the role of epikarst as a shunting area, most of the storage in the vadose zone occurring via the diffuse flow component in low permeability zones. Relationship between rainfall intensity and transit velocity was demonstrated, with 5 times higher velocities for the quick recharge mode than the diffuse mode. Modelling approach with KarstMod software allowed to simulate the hybrid recharge through vadose zone and shows promising chances to properly assess the recharge processes in karst aquifer based on simple physical models. 相似文献
One of the two objectives of the Vemanaute cruise of the French deep submersible Nautile, was the geological study of the eastern intersection area between the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) and the Vema Fracture Zone in the equatorial Atlantic. Fourteen dives were conducted that allowed detailed geological survey and sampling of the main morphostructural units of this area: the northern and southern walls of the fracture zone, the median ridge, the northern and southern troughs and the nodal basin. In situ observations of recent tectonic features such as furrows, ridges and circular depressions, concentrated within the southern trough, allowed us to establish the location and the size of the present-day displacement zone. Geological investigations have shown that the nodal basin is entirely floored by basalts thus contrasting with other equivalent areas such as the Kane and Oceanographer fracture zone-MAR eastern intersections. Finally, this study stresses the great opposition between the relatively old and tectonically inactive northern part of the fracture, and the southern part which shows active tectonics and recent volcanic activity. 相似文献
In the Pyrenees, the lherzolites nowhere occur as continuous units. Rather, they always outcrop as restricted bodies, never more than 3 km wide, scattered across Mesozoic sedimentary units along the North Pyrenean Fault. We report the results of a detailed analysis of the geological setting of the Lherz massif (central Pyrenees), the type‐locality of lherzolites and one of the most studied occurrences of mantle rocks worldwide. The Lherz body is only 1.5 km long and belongs to a series of ultramafic bodies of restricted size (a few metres to some hundreds of metres), occurring within sedimentary formations composed mostly of carbonate breccias originating from the reworking of Mesozoic platform limestones and dolomites. The clastic formations also include numerous layers of polymictic breccias reworking lherzolitic clasts. These layers are found far from any lherzolitic body, implying that lherzolitic clasts cannot derive from the in situ fragmentation of an ultramafic body alone, but might also have been transported far away from their sources by sedimentary processes. A detailed analysis of the contacts between the Lherz ultramafic body and the surrounding limestones confirms that there is no fault contact and that sediments composed of ultramafic material have been emplaced into fissures within the brecciated carapace of the peridotites. These observations bear important constraints for the mode of emplacement of the lherzolite bodies. We infer that mantle exhumation may have occurred during Albian strike‐slip deformation linked to the rotation of Iberia along the proto‐North Pyrenean Fault. 相似文献
This article provides an ex post analysis of the compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period (2008–2012) based on the final data for national GHG emissions and exchanges in carbon units that became available at the end of 2015. On the domestic level, among the 36 countries that fully participated in the Kyoto Protocol, only nine countries emitted higher levels of GHGs than committed and therefore had to resort to flexibility mechanisms. On the international level – i.e. after the use of flexibility mechanisms – all Annex B Parties are in compliance. Countries implemented different compliance strategies: purchasing carbon units abroad, stimulating the domestic use of carbon credits by the private sector and incentivizing domestic emission reductions through climate policies.
Overall, the countries party to the Protocol surpassed their aggregate commitment by an average 2.4 GtCO2e yr–1. Of the possible explanations for this overachievement, ‘hot-air’ was estimated at 2.2 GtCO2e yr–1, while accounting rules for land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) further removed 0.4 GtCO2e yr–1 from the net result excluding LULUCF. The hypothetical participation of the US and Canada would have reduced this overachievement by a net 1 GtCO2e yr–1. None of these factors – some of which may be deemed illegitimate – would therefore on its own have led to global non-compliance, even without use of the 0.3 GtCO2e of annual emissions reductions generated by the Clean Development Mechanism. The impact of domestic policies and ‘carbon leakage’ – neither of which is quantitatively assessed here – should not be neglected either.
Policy relevance
Given the ongoing evolution of the international climate regime and the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, we believe that there is a need to evaluate the results of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. To our knowledge there has been no overarching quantitative ex post assessment of the Kyoto Protocol based on the final emissions data for 2008–2012, which became available in late 2015. This article attempts to fill this gap, focusing on the domestic and international compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period. 相似文献
This study presents results of surveys conducted along the slow to ultra-slow spreading axis of the Northern North Fiji Basin (NNFB), including the Hazel Holmes, Tripartite and South Pandora Ridges, and the newly discovered Futuna and North Cikobia spreading centers. Spreading segments along these axes display highly contrasted axial morphologies, ranging from a rift valley to a prominent axial high. In some places, abrupt inversions of topography are observed between neighboring segments. Detailed analyses of bathymetry and backscatter maps reveal that axial highs are spotted with numerous coalescent volcanoes forming features ranging from irregular terrains to well-organized ridges. The volcanic edifices are distributed over a wide neovolcanic zone, which corresponds to the axial relief, suggesting on important contribution of volcanism to the relief construction. Comparisons between various ridge-shaped segments reveal that axial volcano-tectonic patterns are directly related to the local magma production and delivery, in a context of tectonic extension related to plate divergence, and suggest that coalescent volcanoes are fed from multiples short-lived and unconnected magma lenses. In the competition between horizontal and vertical accretion of oceanic crust, the spreading centers of the NNFB represent a special case where lava production is locally high enough and spreading rate is low enough to allow prominent axial highs to develop. The along axis morphologic variability is related to intermittent volcanic activity that may result from rapid temporal and spatial variations in the distribution of upper mantle convection cells below accretion centers, superimposed on the regional thermal anomaly located under the whole basin. 相似文献