Cloud-radiation feedbacks in a general circulation model and their dependence on cloud modelling assumptions

The general circulation model (GCM) used in this study includes a prognostic cloud scheme and a rather detailed radiation scheme. In a preceding paper, we showed that this model was more sensitive to a global perturbation of the sea surface temperatures than most other models with similar physical parametrization. The experiments presented here show how this feature might depend on some of the cloud modelling assumptions. We have changed the temperature at which the water clouds are allowed to become ice clouds and analyzed separately the feedbacks associated with the variations of cloud cover and cloud radiative properties. We show that the feedback effect associated with cloud radiative properties is positive in one case and negative in the other. This can be explained by the elementary cloud radiative forcing and has implications concerning the use of the GCMs for climate sensitivity studies.     

Practical method for drawing a VGP path

A statistical method is proposed for the smoothing of polar wander paths and for giving their confidence limits by the mean of successive ellipses. The method is fully parametrical and is based on the relations between the inertia matrix and the parameters of the Fisher distribution, from which a bivariate form is deduced. An elementary tensorial calculation gives the parameters of the confidence ellipse around a vectorial weighted mean, for any unimodal set of vectors. This model can also be used for other statistical tests, wherever the rotational symmetry hypothesis is not consistent (i.e. the fold test).     

TWO REFERENCE MATERIALS, TRACHYTES MDO-G AND ISH-G, FOR ARGON DATING (K-AR AND 40AR/39AR) OF PLEISTOCENE AND HOLOCENE ROCKS

With the recent extension of K-Ar dating methods within the Upper Pleistocene time, the use of new standards is recommended to allow calibration and inter-laboratory comparisons. For this purpose, two pure microlitic groundmass reference materials were prepared from trachy-basaltic lavas: Trachyte (MDO-G) from Mont Dore, Puy de Sancy, Massif Central is around 250 000 years old; the second Trachyte (ISH-G) from the Isle of Ischia, Gulf of Naples (Italy), is historical: Arso flow erupted on Christmas 1301 - January 1302 AD.     

Bay of Biscay and Pyrenees

The different hypotheses proposed for the creation of the Bay of Biscay are reviewed. New geological and geophysical data collected in the last two years in the Bay and in the Pyrenean domain give new insight into the tectogenesis of the Pyrenees. Geological data of the Pyrenean area provide tight constraints on the hypothesis of formation of the Bay. The most probable hypothesis is an opening by rotation of the Iberian Peninsula around a pole of rotation situated near Paris, which resulted in strike-slip motion along the North Pyrenean fault during the Upper Mesozoic. A progressive westward migration of the pole initiated in the late Cretaceous blocked the motion along the fault and led to the main Eocene tectogenetic Pyrenean phase.     

Magnetic anomaly pattern in the western mediterranean

A survey of the southern part of the Balearic Basin was flown in 1971 at a height of 600 m. The results of a survey of the northern part, flown at a height of 3000 m, which was previously published, have been downward continued to a height of 600 m. The resulting composite map shows well defined low amplitude (100 gammas) magnetic lineations of the Vine et Matthews' type offset by fracture zones. The lineated zones are bounded by large quasi-circular anomalies on the edge of possibly “continental” non magnetic zones. The results define a complex kinematic pattern of the opening of the Balearic Basin, in terms of plate tectonics.     

A flare in the mira X oph

Before the observation of the 1974 U Ori eruption, it was considered that the Mira stars had only some regular OH variations. With this eruption, we realized that sometimes flares can occur in this type of star. In the course of an OH Mira star monitoring programme with the Nançay radio telescope, we have discovered a new eruptive type of OH maser emission in several sources. Especially, in early 1992, we observed a quickly rising 1665 Mhz emission in the Mira X Oph. The main characteristics of this flare were: large flux variations independent of the light curve; large degree of circular polarization; radial velocity emission close to the stellar velocity.     

Synchronous Transformations of Mineral and Organic Constituents of Sedimentary Rocks in Geological Structure with an Initial Extension and Subsequent Compression Tectonic Regime

Sedimentary rocks of the section in the Red River fold zone of northern Viet Nam are considered. It is shown that secondary mineral parageneses formed in two stages. The first stage (35–17 Ma ago) corresponded to the period of structure extension and sediment subsidence to a depth of about 6 km. This period and subsequent 10 Ma were marked by the formation of a usual dia- and catagenetic zoning of metasedimentary rocks. The second stage (5–7 Ma ago) corresponded to processes of compression that were responsible for the deformation of rocks into gentle folds and 1.5 to 2.2 times contraction of the section thickness in different places. The sequential–mineralogical zoning was disturbed at this stage. Smectites and mixed-layer minerals were replaced by chlorites and hydromicas. Organic material also responded to compression simultaneously with inorganic components. The bituminous component was released from humic matter and rocks became enriched in hydrocarbons.     

High-Resolution Keck Adaptive Optics Imaging of Violent Volcanic Activity on Io

Io, the innermost Galilean satellite of Jupiter, is a fascinating world. Data taken by Voyager and Galileo instruments have established that it is by far the most volcanic body in the Solar System and suggest that the nature of this volcanism could radically differ from volcanism on Earth. We report on near-IR observations taken in February 2001 from the Earth-based 10-m W. M. Keck II telescope using its adaptive optics system. After application of an appropriate deconvolution technique (MISTRAL), the resolution, ∼100 km on Io's disk, compares well with the best Galileo/NIMS resolution for global imaging and allows us for the first time to investigate the very nature of individual eruptions. On 19 February, we detected two volcanoes, Amirani and Tvashtar, with temperatures differing from the Galileo observations. On 20 February, we noticed a slight brightening near the Surt volcano. Two days later it had turned into an extremely bright volcanic outburst. The hot spot temperatures (>1400 K) are consistent with a basaltic eruption and, being lower limits, do not exclude an ultramafic eruption. These outburst data have been fitted with a silicate-cooling model, which indicates that this is a highly vigorous eruption with a highly dynamic emplacement mechanism, akin to fire-fountaining. Its integrated thermal output was close to the total estimated output of Io, making this the largest ionian thermal outburst yet witnessed.     

La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.