Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere–ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe.     

Interdecadal change in North Korean winter mean rainfall

In the present study, it was found that there was a significant climate regime shift in 1993 from average rainfall amounts in winter (December of a year and January and February of the next year) in North Korea over the last 30 years (1982–2011). This significant climate regime shift in 1993 also appeared in empirical orthogonal function analysis conducted using the winter mean rainfall amounts observed at 26 weather observation stations in North Korea. The reason why winter mean rainfall amounts in North Korea were smaller during the period of 1994–2011 than during the period of 1982–1994 was that anomalous anticyclone was reinforced in regions near Lake Baikal while anomalous cyclone was reinforced on the sea on the east of Japan so that the winter pressure system pattern (west high-east low pattern) appeared and thus anomalous cold and dry northerlies were reinforced in most East Asian regions including North Korea. To figure out the reason why anomalous anticyclone was reinforced further in the East Asian continent in winters during the period of 1994–2011, differences in water equivalent of accumulated snow depths between the two periods were analyzed. As a result, more snow was observed in most East Asian regions during the period of 1994–2011. Therefore, anomalous anticyclone could be further reinforced in the East Asian continent because surface air temperature dropped further due to snow-albedo effect. The surface air temperature cooling deepened further in the East Asian continent during the period of 1994–2011 due to snow-albedo effect was identified through differences in sensible heat net flux between the two periods.     

Geophysical and geochemical observations on actively seeping hydrocarbon gases on the south-eastern Yellow Sea continental shelf

In the southeastern Yellow Sea, active seepage of hydrocarbon gases has been observed by high-resolution (3.5 kHz) seismic profiling both in 1987 and 2001, occurring through a large number of plumes from the topmost pre-Holocene sedimentary layer. It is strong enough to compensate for current speed, extending vertically up to the sea surface. The gas seepage often appears to be explosive to form craters and diapirs, although pockmarks are rare due to the redistribution of mobile palimpsest sands. In core-top seawater and sediments, the gases are characterized by high amounts of C₂, homogenous ¹³C₁ values and a large difference (19.7 on average) between ¹³C₁ (–55.2 to –53.6 PDB) and ¹³C₂ (–36.8 to –32.5 PDB) values. The gases are considered to be generated with a smaller amount of C₁ at the early thermal cracking stage of labile source materials, after which the C₂ gas is enriched in ¹³C by diffusion or biological alternation at the generation or accumulation site. The homogenous ¹³C₁ values may be one of the geochemical characteristics of gases acquired at depth which are less altered in the case of rapid diffusive gas migration to the seafloor.     

Effects of flexibility on propulsive force acting on a heaving foil

The hybrid Cartesian/immersed boundary method is applied to simulate effects of flexibility on propulsive force acting on a heaving foil in a viscous flow. Immersed boundary nodes are distributed inside an instantaneous fluid domain. Velocity vector is reconstructed at the immersed boundary node based on an interpolation along a local normal line. Using the staggered/non-staggered grid method, the demand for pressure at boundary nodes is removed. Elastic deformation of the flexible foil is modelled based on the dynamic thin-plate mechanics. The developed code is validated through comparisons with other computations on flow fields around a flapping foil. The generation of the reverse Karman vortex street is investigated. Forces acting on heaving foils are compared for flexible and rigid cases and the increased thrust of the flexible foil is attributed to the deformed configuration near the tip. The flexibility of the heaving foil decreases vertical force and improves propulsion efficiency. The variations of force and deformation are investigated according to bending stiffness of the foil.     

Inductive electric field of a time-dependent ring current

The inductive electric field generated by a time-dependent symmetric ring current has been investigated. The symmetric ring current was modelled by a population of protons drifting in a magnetic dipole field. The interaction of these protons with ion-cyclotron waves was assumed to be the dominant energy loss process for the ring current protons, at least under certain conditions. The calculation, with spectral densities for the ion-cyclotron waves that are based on experimental data, showed that an azimuthal inductive electric field of as much as 0.25 mV/m can be produced by this mechanism. Furthermore there is evidence that if the spectral density of the waves is substantially larger than the one adopted here, the electric field might increase to the order of 1.0 mV/m or more.     

Allocating local groundwater monitoring stations for South Korea using an analytic hierarchy process

A national groundwater-monitoring network consisting of 320 stations has been operated by the Ministry of Construction and Transportation and the Korea Water Resources Corporation since 1995. The network was established as a result of the Groundwater Act of Korea, and a supplementary local groundwater monitoring network containing 10,000 stations will be established throughout the country by the year 2011. A method of allocating stations and organizing the local monitoring network has been developed, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), using pairwise comparison. Several evaluation criteria were selected for determining the required number of the monitoring stations at specific local districts. Weights of the selected criteria were assigned by the pairwise comparison, reflecting hydrogeological conditions and supported by pertinent questions to 93 groundwater experts. To evaluate appropriateness of this method, an example city, Jeonju, was selected where groundwater levels were monitored; seven stations were determined as to be required for the supplementary groundwater-monitoring network. The study demonstrated the usefulness of the AHP. The concepts of the development and the structure of the AHP model can be applied to site or well selections within a particular district.     

Climate change signal analysis for Northeast Asian surface temperature

Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO42-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SO42- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the di     

Bringing the other into political ecology: Reflecting on preoccupations in a research field

For all its vitality political ecology often appears to be a project in which work by Anglo‐Americans in particular, if it is not privileged, certainly predominates. This trend reflects wider language and intellectual tendencies in human geography and the social sciences that distort the development of the field by downplaying or obscuring the contributions of many non‐Anglo‐Americans and by naturalizing Anglo‐American assumptions at the heart of research. The latter in turn determine what constitutes ‘good’ work – even as there is no single definition of political ecology. Arguing against this tendency, this paper draws on postcolonial thinking to emphasize the need to reassess and reorient the field as ‘other’ political ecologies are feasible and desirable.     

Experimental Investigation into the performance of the Axial-Flow-Type Waterjet according to the Variation of Impeller Tip Clearance

The tip clearance inside the duct from the tip of the impeller is very important to the performance of waterjet systems, which fact has been proven in the pump field. The tip clearance is especially important on the model scale because it is very difficult in manufacture to keep the tip clearance constant and minimally small along the inside of the duct. In the present study, a flush-type waterjet propulsion unit (duct, impeller, stator, and nozzle) was designed for an amphibious tracked vehicle. Two impellers of different inner diameter were designed and manufactured in order to investigate the gap effect. Resistance and self-propulsion tests with a 1/5-scale model were conducted in PNU towing tank. The flow rate at the nozzle exit, the static pressure at the various sections along the duct and also the nozzle, the revolution of the impeller, and the torque, thrust, and towing forces at various advanced speeds were measured. Based on these measurements, the performance was analyzed according to the ITTC 96 standard analysis method. Based on this analysis method, the full-scale effective and delivered power of the tracked vehicle was estimated according to the variation of tip clearance.     

Partial melting and P–T evolution of the Kodaikanal Metapelite Belt, southern India

The Kodaikanal region of the Madurai Block in southern India exposes a segment of high-grade metamorphic rocks dominated by an aluminous garnet–cordierite–spinel–sillimanite–quartz migmatite suite, designated herein as the Kodaikanal Metapelite Belt (KMB). These rocks were subjected to extreme crustal metamorphism during the Late Neoproterozoic despite the lack of diagnostic ultrahigh-temperature assemblages. The rocks preserve microstructural evidence demonstrating initial-heating, dehydration melting to generate the peak metamorphic assemblage and later retrogression of the residual assemblages with remaining melt. The peak metamorphic assemblage is interpreted to be garnet + sillimanite + K-feldspar + spinel + Fe–Ti oxide + quartz + melt, which indicates pressure–temperature (P–T) conditions around 950–1000 °C and 7–8 kbar based on calculated phase diagrams. A clockwise P–T path is proposed by integrating microstructural information with pseudosections. We show that evidence for extreme crustal metamorphism at ultrahigh-temperature conditions can be extracted even in the cases where the rocks lack diagnostic ultrahigh-temperature mineral assemblages. Our approach confirms the widespread regional occurrence of UHT metamorphism in the Madurai Block during Gondwana assembly and point out the need for similar studies on adjacent continental fragments.