Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τc and Pd method for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning （EEW） systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τe and Pa methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The Pd value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.     

Geology and geochemistry of the Bingdaban ophiolitic mélange in the boundary fault zone on the northern Central Tianshan Belt,and its tectonic implications

The properties and tectonic significance of the fault bound zone on the northern margin of the Central Tianshan belt are key issues to understand the tectonic framework and evolutionary history of the Tianshan Orogenic Belt. Based on the geological and geochemical studies in the Tianshan orogenic belt, it is suggested that the ophiolitic slices found in the Bingdaban area represent the remaining oceanic crust of the Early Paleozoic ocean between the Hazakstan and Zhungaer blocks. Mainly composed of basalts, gabbros and diabases, the ophiolites were overthrust onto the boundary fault between the Northern Tianshan and Central Tianshan belts. The major element geochemistry is characterized by high TiO₂ (1.50%–2.25%) and MgO (6.64%–9.35%), low K₂O (0.06%–0.41%) and P₂O₅ (0.1%–0.2%), and Na₂O>K₂O as well. Low ΣREE and depletion in LREE indicate that the original magma was derived from a depleted mantle source. Compared with a primitive mantle, the geochemistry of the basalts from the Bingdaban area is featureded by depletion in Th, U, Nb, La, Ce and Pr, and unfractionated in HFS elements. The ratios of Zr/Nb, Nb/La, Hf/Ta, Th/Yb and Hf/Th are similar to those of the typical N-MORB. It can be interpreted that the basalts in the Bingdaban area were derived from a depleted mantle source, and formed in a matured mid-oceanic ridge setting during the matured evolutionary stage of the Northern Tianshan ocean. In comparison with the basalts, the diabases from the Bingdaban area show higher contents of Al₂O₃, ΣREE and HFS elements as well as unfractionated incompatible elements except Cs, Rb and Ba, and about 10 times the values of the primitive mantle. Thus, the diabases are thought to be derived from a primitive mantle and similar to the typical E-MORB. The diabases also have slight Nb depletion accompanying no apparent Th enrichment compared with N-MORB. From studies of the regional geology and all above evidence, it can be suggested that the diabases from the Bingdaban area were formed in the mid-oceanic ridge of the Northern Tianshan ocean during the initial spreading stage. Supported by the Major State Research Program of PRC (Grant No. 2001CB409801), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40472115 and 40234041) and the State Research Program of China Geological Survey (Grant No. 2001130000-22)     

Classification of yearly extreme precipitation events and associated flood risk in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley

Fifty cases of regional yearly extreme precipitation events(RYEPEs)were identified over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1979–2016 applying the statistical percentile method.There were five types of RYEPEs,namely Yangtze Meiyu(YM-RYEPE),Huaihe Meiyu(HM-RYEPE),southwest-northeast-oriented Meiyu(SWNE-RYEPE)and typhoon I and II(TC-RYEPE)types of RYEPEs.Potential vorticity diagnosis showed that propagation trajectories of the RYEPEs along the Western Pacific Subtropical High and its steering flow were concentrated over the southern YHRV.As a result,the strongest and most frequently RYEPEs events,about 16–21 cases with average rainfall above 100 mm,occurred in the southern YHRV,particularly in the Nanjing metropolitan area.There have been 14 cases of flood-inducing RYEPEs since 1979,with the submerged area exceeding 120 km~2as simulated by the Flood Area hydraulic model,comprising six HM-RYEPEs,five YM-RYEPEs,two TC-RYEPEs,and one SWNE-RYEPE.The combination of evolving RYEPEs and rapid expansion of urban agglomeration is most likely to change the flood risk distribution over the Nanjing metropolitan area in the future.In the RCP6.0(RCP8.5)scenario,the built-up area increases at a rate of about 10.41 km~2(10 yr)~(-1)(24.67 km~2(10 yr)~(-1))from 2010 to 2100,and the area of high flood risk correspondingly increases from 3.86 km~2(3.86 km~2)to 9.00 km~2(13.51 km~2).Areas of high flood risk are mainly located at Chishan Lake in Jurong,Lukou International Airport in Nanjing,Dongshan in Jiangning District,Lishui District and other low-lying areas.The accurate simulation of flood scenarios can help reduce losses due to torrential flooding and improve early warnings,evacuation planning and risk analysis.More attention should be paid to the projected high flood risk because of the concentrated population,industrial zones and social wealth throughout the Nanjing metropolitan area.     

Monitoring of wastewater percolation in unsaturated sandy soil using geoelectrical measurements at Gabal el Asfar farm,northeast Cairo,Egypt

The use of wastewater for irrigation in sandy soil increases the pollution risk of the soil and may infiltrate to the shallow groundwater aquifer. In such environment, some important parameters need to be obtained for monitoring the wastewater in the unsaturated zone over the aquifer. These parameters include clay content, heterogeneities of the upper soils, depth to the aquifer and the variations of groundwater quality. In the present work, the efficiency of DC resistivity method in forms of 1-D and 2-D measurements was studied for wastewater monitoring in the Gabal el Asfar farm, northeast of Cairo, Egypt. Forty-one Schlumberger soundings (VES) were performed then followed by three pole-dipole 2-D profiles along some considered regions within the area. The resistivity measurements were integrated with the boreholes, hydrogeological and hydrochemical (surface and groundwater samples) information to draw a clear picture for the subsurface conditions. The obtained results were presented as cross sections and 3-D visualization to trace the clay intercalations within the unsaturated zone. In addition, a vulnerability map was created using the obtained results from 1-D Schlumberger survey and confirmed with the 2-D resistivity profiling. The obtained results have shown that the 2-D resistivity imaging technique is a powerful tool for mapping the small-scale variability within the unsaturated zone and the wastewater infiltration. However, limitations of resistivity techniques were observed in the area with limited resistivity contrast such as thin clay layers with brackish water background. Under that condition, the measured pattern of resistivity distributions depends on the applied electrode array, electrode spacing and using the available geological information during the inversion process.     

GIS的社会化及公众GIS

GIS(地理信息系统 )的发展继专业化和行业化阶段之后 ,正处于社会化发展阶段。在该阶段 ,GIS的主要作用是为公众提供信息服务。文章在分析了GIS的这种发展趋势的基础上提出了“公众GIS”的概念 ,即 :直接面向公众 ,为公众提供信息服务和辅助公众进行行为决策的地理信息系统。与传统GIS相比 ,公众GIS更具有信息服务业的特点。公众GIS的建设应该突出信息的全面性、现势性和准确性、系统的友好性以及数据的易维护性等原则。公众GIS的关键技术包括数据采集、网络、数据库、多媒体以及系统的友好性设计等技术。公众GIS在建设全国城市公众信息服务网、全国交通旅游信息网以及汽车导航信息系统等方面具有广阔的应用前景。文章对公众GIS的实例———“今日武汉”公众查询系统作了简要介绍。     

HP–UHP metamorphism as an indicator of slab dip variations in the Alpine arc

HP/UHP and LT metamorphic units that commonly occur in the inner parts of mountain belts result from the subduction of continental and oceanic material, most often exhumed prior to continental collision. The prograde pressure–temperature history of HP–UHP rocks strongly depends on the convergence rate and on the subduction zone geometry. The maximum pressure recorded provides a proxy for the depth of shearing off and stacking of HP metamorphic nappes. A 2-D thermal model of continental subduction at lithospheric scale is used to compute the length and pressure peak of detached HP metamorphic units as a function of the slab dip angle and the convergence rate. Model results are applied to the metamorphic nappe pile of the inner Alps. A mean convergence rate of 1 cm/year during the subduction of the Briançonnais terrane is indicated by the paleogeographic reconstructions between 46 and 38 Ma. On this basis, the available petrological data and lengths of metamorphic units are used to compute the variations of the slab dip angle. The slab dip angle is shown to increase, from the northeast to the southwest, along the Alpine arc with estimated values of 20° for Suretta, 30–45° for Monte Rosa and Gran Paradiso, and 60° for Dora Maira. From Eocene to Oligocene times, the increase in slab dip angle is controlled by changes of buoyancy, due to the spatial configuration of the Valaisan trough and the incoming of crustal material within the subduction zone.     

Ensemble filter methods with perturbed observations applied to nonlinear problems

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been shown repeatedly to be an effective method for data assimilation in large-scale problems, including those in petroleum engineering. Data assimilation for multiphase flow in porous media is particularly difficult, however, because the relationships between model variables (e.g., permeability and porosity) and observations (e.g., water cut and gas–oil ratio) are highly nonlinear. Because of the linear approximation in the update step and the use of a limited number of realizations in an ensemble, the EnKF has a tendency to systematically underestimate the variance of the model variables. Various approaches have been suggested to reduce the magnitude of this problem, including the application of ensemble filter methods that do not require perturbations to the observed data. On the other hand, iterative least-squares data assimilation methods with perturbations of the observations have been shown to be fairly robust to nonlinearity in the data relationship. In this paper, we present EnKF with perturbed observations as a square root filter in an enlarged state space. By imposing second-order-exact sampling of the observation errors and independence constraints to eliminate the cross-covariance with predicted observation perturbations, we show that it is possible in linear problems to obtain results from EnKF with observation perturbations that are equivalent to ensemble square-root filter results. Results from a standard EnKF, EnKF with second-order-exact sampling of measurement errors that satisfy independence constraints (EnKF (SIC)), and an ensemble square-root filter (ETKF) are compared on various test problems with varying degrees of nonlinearity and dimensions. The first test problem is a simple one-variable quadratic model in which the nonlinearity of the observation operator is varied over a wide range by adjusting the magnitude of the coefficient of the quadratic term. The second problem has increased observation and model dimensions to test the EnKF (SIC) algorithm. The third test problem is a two-dimensional, two-phase reservoir flow problem in which permeability and porosity of every grid cell (5,000 model parameters) are unknown. The EnKF (SIC) and the mean-preserving ETKF (SRF) give similar results when applied to linear problems, and both are better than the standard EnKF. Although the ensemble methods are expected to handle the forecast step well in nonlinear problems, the estimates of the mean and the variance from the analysis step for all variants of ensemble filters are also surprisingly good, with little difference between ensemble methods when applied to nonlinear problems.     

Mapping of groundwater prospective zones integrating remote sensing,geographic information systems and geophysical techniques in El-Qaà Plain area,Egypt

The geospatial mapping of groundwater prospective zones is essential to support the needs of local inhabitants and agricultural activities in arid regions such as El-Qaà area, Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. The study aims to locate new wells that can serve to cope with water scarcity. The integration of remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and geophysical techniques is a breakthrough for groundwater prospecting. Based on these techniques, several factors contributing to groundwater potential in El-Qaà Plain were determined. Geophysical data were supported by information derived from a digital elevation model, and from geologic, geomorphologic and hydrologic data, to reveal the promising sites. All the spatial data that represent the contributing factors were integrated and analyzed in a GIS framework to develop a groundwater prospective model. An appropriate weightage was specified to each factor based on its relative contribution towards groundwater potential, and the resulting map delineates the study area into five classes, from very poor to very good potential. The very good potential zones are located in the Quaternary deposits, with flat to gentle topography, dense lineaments and structurally controlled drainage channels. The groundwater potential map was tested against the distribution of groundwater wells and cultivated land. The integrated methodology provides a powerful tool to design a suitable groundwater management plan in arid regions.     

Why relatively fewer people died? The case of Bangladesh’s Cyclone Sidr

Cyclone Sidr, a Category IV storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on November 15, 2007 killing 3,406 people. Despite a similar magnitude, Sidr claimed far fewer lives than Cyclone Gorky, also a Category IV storm, which struck Bangladesh in 1991 causing an estimated 140,000 fatalities. The relatively low number of deaths experienced with Sidr is widely considered the result of Bangladesh government’s efforts to provide timely cyclone forecasting and early warnings, and successful evacuation of coastal residents from the projected path of Cyclone Sidr. Using information collected from both primary and secondary sources, this study identified several other reasons for the unexpectedly lower mortality associated with Cyclone Sidr relative to Cyclone Gorky. Fewer casualties may be attributed to a number of physical characteristics of Cyclone Sidr, such as duration of the storm and storm surge, landfall time and site, varied coastal ecology, and coastal embankment. This article recommends improvements to the cyclone warning systems, establishment of more public cyclone shelters, and implementation of an education campaign in coastal areas to increase the utilization of public shelters for future cyclone events.     

Speciation and potential remobilization of heavy metals in sediments of the Taihu Lake, China

The species of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd and Cr in sediments of the Taihu Lake, China, have been analyzed using the sequential chemical extraction method. Variations in the chemical fractions of these metals and their geographic distributions have also been studied. For all five metals, the residual fraction is highest but the exchangeable fraction is lowest among all the fractions. Compared to other metals, Cd has the highest percentage in the exchangeable fraction, and Cr is associated mainly with the residual fraction. Cu in the organic fraction and Pb in the Fe-Mn fraction are the important species, whereas the lowest percentages are found for Cd in the organic fraction, Cu in the Fe-Mn oxide fraction and Pb in the carbonate fraction. With respect to spatial differences, the total contents in the non-residual fractions of the metals in bay sediments are found to be higher than those in other sediments. The fractions of Cd, Cu and Cr showed significant variations in different regions. The fractions of Pb and Zn, however, did not show significant variations in spatial distribution, suggesting different amounts and different paths of anthropogenic input for the metals. Comparisons of the metal speciation indicated that Cd might be the most bioavailable metal, followed by Pb.