最优子集的神经网络预报建模研究

作者尝试用最优子集方法进行神经网络长期预报模型的建模方法研究。结果表明,在很多情况下,由于最优子集方法比逐步回归方法能选取更好的预报因子,因此所构造的神经网络预报模型具有更好的拟合和预报效果,这为神经网络在长期预报的应用研究提供了新的思路和方法。     

轮古东走滑断裂破碎带结构及与油气关系

利用最新处理完成的轮古东300 km2叠前深度偏移地震资料,多手段识别出轮古东气田发育3期4组断裂。断裂控制了裂缝走向与裂缝发育密度,裂缝主要为高角度(45°~75°)构造窄裂缝,沿裂缝存在溶蚀,走向主要为NESW。纵向上,一间房组裂缝发育密度最大(14条/100 m),其次为鹰山组(6条/100 m)和良里塔格组(4条/100 m);平面上,裂缝主要分布在主干断裂周边1 km范围内,随着距断裂距离增大,裂缝发育强度(裂缝线密度)呈指数降低。在此基础上,综合考虑主干断裂及伴生裂缝发育特征,将轮古东断裂破碎带平面上划分为"羽状破碎带、转换破碎带、斜列破碎带、复合破碎带"4种结构,羽状破碎带分布面积最广,是油气最富集的区域,是目前高效井的集中分布区,围绕羽状破碎带的钻探为走滑断裂控储控藏研究和寻找新的油气富集区域提供了新思路。     

The Generalized Equation of Consolidation Theory and Its Application

This paper presents a generalized equation of the consolidation theory ,which is applicable to the arbitrary rheological models .The unknown constants of the equation can be determined through the experimental data by semi-analytical and semi-empirical methods .Thus,a new method for settlement calculation is provided     

DZZ2型自动站监控软件数据故障分析与处理

2010年4月8日16时至9日10时,霍州市气象局自动站出现故障,监控软件无法正常显示各气象要素实时数据,通过认真分析查找原因,逐步排查故障,最终使问题得以圆满解决。本文对该次故障现象与分析处理过程进行了总结。     

长江三峡巴东县黄土坡前缘斜坡变形数据本构分析预测研究

应用数据本构分析方法,对三峡库区巴东县黄土坡前缘斜坡变形发展趋势进行了分析预测,阐明了数据本构分析预测对斜坡地质灾害的分析、防治意义     

A double-differenced cycle slip detection and repair method for GNSS CORS network

The difficulty to detect and repair cycle slip of carrier phase measurements is a key limit for continuously high accuracy of GNSS positioning and navigation services. We propose an automated cycle slip detection and repair method for data preprocessing of a CORS network. The method jointly uses double-differenced (DD) geometry-free (GF) combination and ionospheric-free observation corrected for the computed geometrical distance (IF-OMC) to estimate the cycle slips in dual-frequency observations. The DD GF combination, which is only affected by the ionospheric residual, can be used to detect cycle slips with high reliability except for special pairs such as (77, 60) on GPS L1/L2 frequencies. The detection principle of the IF-OMC observable is such that there is a large discontinuity related to the previous epoch when cycle slips occur at the present epoch. The disadvantages of these two combinations can be overcome employing the proposed detection method. The cycle slip pair (77, 60) has no effect on the GF combination, while a change of 14.65 m is derived from GPS L1/L2 observations using the IF-OMC algorithm. Using pre-determined station coordinates as precise values, we found that the accuracy of the DD IF-OMC combination was 18 mm for a 200-km CORS baseline. Therefore, cycle slips in dual-frequency observations can be correctly and uniquely determined using DD GF and IF-OMC equations. The proposed method was verified by adding simulated cycle slips in observations collected from the CORS network under a quiet ionosphere and shown to be effective. Moreover, the method was assessed with observations made during intense ionospheric activity, which generated extensive cycle slips. The results show that the algorithm can detect and repair all cycle slips apart from two exceptions relating to long data gaps.     

河北南部石炭一二叠纪煤层气烃源岩特征

河北南部地区石炭一二叠系煤层煤种丰富,峰峰、邯郸矿区煤层的宏观煤岩类型以半亮煤和半暗煤为主;显微煤岩类型为微镜煤、微镜惰煤及微暗煤;煤的结构以细、中宽条带状结构为主,在半亮煤和半暗煤中最多;有机显微组分以镜质组最高,一般可占50％～91％,惰质组占10％～35％,壳质组含量一般不超过5％,对煤层气来说,这是比较有利的烃源条件：区内大淑村矿2煤的矿物质含量最低,其煤的吸附能力较其它矿区高;主煤层镜质组最大反射率具有北高南低的分布规律,揭示了煤的生烃强度具有由南向北逐渐增高的趋势。该区煤层气源岩不仅影响煤的生烃能力,还影响着煤层对甲烷的吸附能力和煤层气的开采能力。     

基于DVB-S数据共享平台的NOAA/ATOVS资料获取、处理与显示系统

充分利用国家科技部大力推行的DVB-S共享数据平台,加强气象卫星遥感数据的广泛应用,特别是发挥卫星垂直探测器(ATOVS)资料在我国数值天气预报以及监测重大灾害性天气系统中的作用。该文介绍了基于DVB-S系统的NOAA/ATOVS资料的处理、分析与显示系统的概况及主要功能,并以2005年7月人们关注的台风“海棠”为个例,展示了利用该系统在监测和分析台风或强对流天气时的独特优势。该系统的建立,将解决省、地气象部门不能实时获取ATOVS资料的问题,并将推动ATOVS资料在气象以及相关部门的实际应用。     

Determination of trace and rare-earth elements in Chinese soil and clay reference materials by ICP-MS

Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry(ICP-MS) has become a powerful tool for providing reliable analytical results in many laboratories around the word. In this study, the mixture of HF and HNO3 acids in high-temperature and high-pressure closed-vessel digestion technique were used to decompose some Chinese reference materials, and thirty seven elements were determined by ICP-MS. Most of the results for Chinese soil reference materials were found to be in reasonable agreement with the reference values, except Cs, Ta, Li, Ge, Zn, Nd, Tb and Ta whose values need to be revised. Their precisions were typically lower than 5% RSD. However, the Precisions of Chinese clay reference materials, especially for GBW03102 and GBW03102a, were significantly different with reference values, probably reflecting the existence of a coarser-grained fraction(70 μm) in samples, and the formation of fluorides in Al-rich samples during sample decomposition by using the mixture of HF and HNO3 acids. Moreover, thirty-seven trace elements covering the mass range from Li to U in four Chinese clay reference materials were firstly provided with good precision and accuracy in this study.