云南高黎贡山典型斜长角闪岩地震波速、各向异性及其晶格优选定向的研究

斜长角闪岩和角闪岩相变质岩石是大陆中—下地、岛弧深部地壳以及俯冲大洋地壳中最重要的组成岩石之一,查明目前地壳中斜长角闪岩的体积含量、空间分布及其应变状态对于深入研究大陆地壳的形成与演化过程极其重要.笔者等实验测量了云南高黎贡韧性剪切带典型变形斜长角闪岩7个关键性方向上的地震(P和S波)波速随静水围压(0～600 MPa)的变化规律,并利用电子背散射衍射(EBSD)技术测定了主要造岩矿物角闪石、斜长石和石英的品格优选方位,查清斜长角闪岩中地震波速各向异性与剪切波分裂的成因,确定斜长角闪岩中有限应变椭球与波速椭球的对应关系,为今后利用原地地震波速的各向异性调查地壳深部区域构造应变场提供必要的实验和理论基础.     

Analysis of stream water quality and estimation of nutrient load with the aid of Quick Bird remote sensing imagery

Abstract

Human activities have created high nutrient surpluses in agricultural lands due to the increasing rate of chemical fertilizer application and the increase in livestock production. To analyse the nutrient characteristics and estimate the nutrient load in streams, we conducted extensive field survey and water quality experiments from 2007 to 2008 in Koise River, a major river of the Lake Kasumigaura watershed, Japan. Water quality indicators of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) were investigated. The nutrient loads of TN, TP and TOC, as well as dissolved total nitrogen, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, dissolved organic nitrogen, particle organic nitrogen, dissolved total phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon and particle organic carbon were also estimated for the Koise River. Seasonal variation of the nutrient concentration from 2007 to 2008 was analysed considering the river discharge variation and agricultural activities. The results showed that the irrigation water from Lake Kasumigaura has the potential ability to decrease the TN concentration and increase the TOC concentration in the Koise River. Significant correlation coefficients between nutrient load and river discharge were found. The monthly pollution loads from different sources were then evaluated based on land cover classification generated from high-resolution Quick Bird remote sensing imagery. This study presents a useful interpretation of water quality data sets with a view to obtaining better information about water quality for more effective management of water resources in river basins.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation He, B., Oki, K., Wang, Y., Oki, T., Yamashiki, Y., Takara, K., Miura, S., Imai, A., Komatsu, K. and Kawasaki, N., 2012. Analysis of stream water quality and estimation of nutrient load with the aid of Quick Bird remote sensing imagery. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 850–860.     

Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses

Climate Dynamics - The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an...     

Next steps in geoengineering scenario research: limited deployment scenarios and beyond

Climate engineering has received increasing attention, but its discussion has remained on the sidelines of mainstream climate policy. The policy relevance of this previously exotic option is poised to rise because of the gap between the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and slow global mitigation efforts. It is therefore crucial to understand the risks and benefits of the proposed schemes, and the social implications of policy choices. Assessment of the risks and benefits of solar geoengineering strongly depends on scenarios, but previous scenarios have not reflected the full range of social choices. In light of concerns over risks, a newer set of scenarios is desirable, which represents both uncertainties and social choices more fully. Borrowing and extending lessons from recent literature on the new community climate scenario process, we envision a possible scenario-building process that combines interdisciplinary scholarship with the involvement of stakeholders and citizens. The resultant scenarios would better characterize uncertainties of, and policy choices for, solar geoengineering, and foster critical appraisal of its risks and benefits. Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature. The interaction between scenario and governance research would be able to highlight the central issues at stake, including ethical, social, and political dimensions.

Key policy insights

• A more comprehensive assessment of solar geoengineering is necessary to evaluate its risks and benefits, necessitating new scenario research

• It is crucial to reflect the full span of policy choices and uncertainties with interdisciplinary collaboration in such scenarios

• Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature

• Participatory scenario research would enable incorporating the concerns and opinions of stakeholders and citizens in scenario creation

     

Seasonal variations of the upper ocean in the western north pacific observed by an argo float

A seasonal evolution of surface mixed layer in the western North Pacific around 24°N between 143°E and 150°E was observed by using an Argo float for more than 9 months, from December 2001 through August 2002. The result showed that the mixed layer deepened gradually in the first two months. It reached its maximum depth of about 130 m at the end of January, after which the mixed layer varied largely and sometimes the pycnocline below the mixed layer was much weakened until the summer mixed layer formed in late April. The thin surface mixed layer was maintained during the rest of the observation period. Heat budget analysis suggests that the vertical and horizontal temperature advections are the two most dominant terms in the heat balance in the upper layer on time scales from a few days to a month. The vertical motions that are possibly responsible for the vertical temperature advection are discussed.     

Development of a new operational system for monitoring and forecasting coastal and open-ocean states around Japan

We developed a new system to monitor and forecast coastal and open-ocean states around Japan for operational use by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The system consists of an eddy-resolving analysis model based on four-dimensional variational assimilation and a high (2-km) resolution forecast model covering Japanese coastal areas that incorporates an initialization scheme with temporal and spatial filtering. Assimilation and forecast experiments were performed for 2008 to 2017, and the results were validated against various observation datasets. The assimilation results captured well the observed variability in sea surface temperature, coastal sea level, volume transport, and sea ice. Furthermore, the volume budget for the Japan Sea was significantly improved by the use of the 2-km resolution forecast model compared with the 10-km resolution analysis model. The forecast results indicate that this system has a predictive limit longer than 1 month in many areas, including in the Kuroshio current area south of Japan and the southern Japan Sea. In the forecast results of case studies, the 2017 Kuroshio large meander was well predicted, and warm water intrusions accompanying Kuroshio path variations south of Japan were also successfully reproduced. Sea ice forecasts for the Sea of Okhotsk largely captured the evolution of sea ice in late winter, but sea ice in early winter included relatively large errors. This system has high potential to meet operational requirements for monitoring and forecasting ocean phenomena at both meso- and coastal scales.

     

Holocene Refreshening and Reoxygenation of a Bothnian Sea Estuary Led to Enhanced Phosphorus Burial

Salinity variations in restricted basins like the Baltic Sea can alter their vulnerability to hypoxia (i.e., bottom water oxygen concentrations <2 mg/l) and can affect the burial of phosphorus (P), a key nutrient for marine organisms. We combine porewater and solid-phase geochemistry, micro-analysis of sieved sediments (including XRD and synchrotron-based XAS), and foraminiferal δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C analyses to reconstruct the bottom water salinity, redox conditions, and P burial in the Ångermanälven estuary, Bothnian Sea. Our sediment records were retrieved during the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Baltic Sea Paleoenvironment Expedition 347 in 2013. We demonstrate that bottom waters in the Ångermanälven estuary became anoxic upon the intrusion of seawater in the early Holocene, like in the central Bothnian Sea. The subsequent refreshening and reoxygenation, which was caused by gradual isostatic uplift, promoted P burial in the sediment in the form of Mn-rich vivianite. Vivianite authigenesis in the surface sediments of the more isolated part of the estuary ultimately ceased, likely due to continued refreshening and an associated decline in productivity and P supply to the sediment. The observed shifts in environmental conditions also created conditions for post-depositional formation of authigenic vivianite, and possibly apatite formation, at ～8 m composite depth. These salinity-related changes in redox conditions and P burial are highly relevant in light of current climate change. The results specifically highlight that increased freshwater input linked to global warming may enhance coastal P retention, thereby contributing to oligotrophication in both coastal and adjacent open waters.     

A distributed hydrological–geotechnical model using satellite-derived rainfall estimates for shallow landslide prediction system at a catchment scale

This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment: (1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability. A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment (2,310 km²), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings.     

Spatial relationship between topography and rock uplift patterns in asymmetric mountain ranges based on a stream erosion model

The spatial relationship between topography and rock uplift patterns in asymmetric mountain ranges was investigated using a stream erosion model in which the asymmetric rock uplift was given and erosion rates were proportional to the m-th power of the drainage area and the n-th power of the channel gradient. The model conditions were simple, and thus the effects of horizontal rock movement, diffusional processes, and erosion thresholds were neglected, and spatially uniform precipitation, lithology, and vegetation were assumed. In asymmetric mountain ranges, under realistic exponent conditions (m < n) and the above assumptions, the surface erosion rate is faster on the steeper side and slower on the gentler side. The topographic axis migrates away from the rock uplift axis toward the center of the mountain range owing to the contrast in erosion rates. This migration continues until the erosion is balanced with rock uplift. In a dynamic steady state, the topographic pattern is independent of the rock uplift rate as indicated by an analytical solution, and is prescribed by the rock uplift pattern and the exponents m and n. As the asymmetry of the rock uplift pattern increases, the topographic axis migrates a greater distance. The location of the topographic axis is related to the location of the rock uplift axis by a simple logarithmic function, for a wide range of m and n. The fit of the numerical results and the logarithmic function is particularly good when m = 0.5 and n = 1.0. If the rock uplift pattern in asymmetric mountain ranges is known, the value of n − 5m/4 can be constrained based on the logarithmic relation, assuming a dynamic steady state. On the other hand, if the value of n − 5m/4 is known in an asymmetric mountain range, the rock uplift pattern can be estimated directly from the topography. This relation was applied to the Suzuka Range in central Japan, and the value of n − 5m/4 was estimated for an assumed reverse fault motion.     

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

Monthly averaged total volume transport of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) estimated by 14 global ocean data assimilation (ODA) products that are decade to multi-decade long are compared among themselves and with observations from the INSTANT Program (2004–2006). The main goals of the comparisons are to examine the consistency and evaluate the skill of different ODA products in simulating ITF transport. The ensemble averaged, time-mean value of ODA estimates is 13.6 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³/s) for the common 1993–2001 period and 13.9 Sv for the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period. These values are close to the 15-Sv estimate derived from INSTANT observations. All but one ODA time-mean estimate fall within the range of uncertainty of the INSTANT estimate. In terms of temporal variability, the scatter among different ODA estimates averaged over time is 1.7 Sv, which is substantially smaller than the magnitude of the temporal variability simulated by the ODA systems. Therefore, the overall “signal-to-noise” ratio for the ensemble estimates is larger than one. The best consistency among the products occurs on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, with generally stronger (weaker) ITF during boreal summer (winter) and during La Nina (El Nino) events. The scatter among different products for seasonal-to-interannual time scales is approximately 1 Sv. Despite the good consistency, systematic difference is found between most ODA products and the INSTANT observations. All but the highest-resolution (18 km) ODA product show a dominant annual cycle while the INSTANT estimate and the 18-km product exhibit a strong semi-annual signal. The coarse resolution is an important factor that limits the level of agreement between ODA and INSTANT estimates. Decadal signals with periods of 10–15 years are seen. The most conspicuous and consistent decadal change is a relatively sharp increase in ITF transport during 1993–2000 associated with the strengthening tropical Pacific trade wind. Most products do not show a weakening ITF after the mid-1970s’ associated with the weakened Pacific trade wind. The scatter of ODA estimates is smaller after than before 1980, reflecting the impact of the enhanced observations after the 1980s. To assess the representativeness of using the average over a three-year period (e.g., the span of the INSTANT Program) to describe longer-term mean, we investigate the temporal variations of the three-year low-pass ODA estimates. The average variation is about 3.6 Sv, which is largely due to the increase of ITF transport from 1993 to 2000. However, the three-year average during the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period is within 0.5 Sv of the long-term mean for the past few decades.