2014年云南鲁甸6.5级地震致人死亡情况分析

搜集了鲁甸地震致人伤亡的详细资料,分析了导致人员死亡的原因、死亡人员的空间分布、年龄分布、性别占比、民族组成等。并与国内其它地震造成人员伤亡的情况进行了对比。本文还结合当地社会经济和人员活动特点估算了夜间发震后人员死亡的数量,所得结果对进一步认识滇东北地区地震人员伤亡风险具有参考意义。     

中国南京与美国德克萨斯稻田甲烷排放的比较

Field measurements of methane emission from rice paddies were made in Nanjing, China and in Texas, USA, respectively. Soil temperature at approximately 10 cm depth of the flooded soils was automatically recorded. Aboveground biomass of rice crop was measured approximately every 10 days in Nanjing and every other week in Texas. Seasonal variation of soil temperature in Nanjing was quite wide with a magnitude of 15.3℃ and that in Texas was narrow with a magnitude of 2.9℃. Analysis of methane emission fluxes against soil temperature and rice biomass production demonstrated that the seasonal course of methane emission in Nanjing was mostly attributed to soil temperature changes, while that in Texas was mainly related to rice biomass production. We concluded that under the permanent flooding condition, the seasonal trend of methane emission would be determined by the soil temperature where there was a wide variation of soil temperature, and the seasonal trend would be mainly determined by rice biomass production if there are no additional organic matter inputs and the variation of soil temperature over the rice growing season is small.     

Long-term Stability and Oceanic Mean State Simulated by the Coupled Model FGOALS-s2

We describe the long-term stability and mean climatology of oceanic circulations simulated by version 2 of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model(FGOALS-s2).Driven by pre-industrial forcing,the integration of FGOALS-s2 was found to have remained stable,with no obvious climate drift over 600 model years.The linear trends of sea SST and sea surface salinity(SSS) were 0.04°C(100yr)-1 and 0.01 psu(100yr)-1,respectively.The simulations of oceanic temperatures,wind-driven circulation and thermohaline circulation in FGOALS-s2 were found to be comparable with observations,and have been substantially improved over previous FGOALS-s versions(1.0 and 1.1).However,significant SST biases(exceeding 3°C) were found around strong western boundary currents,in the East China Sea,the Sea of Japan and the Barents Sea.Along the eastern coasts in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean,a warm bias(>3°C) was mainly due to overestimation of net surface shortwave radiation and weak oceanic upwelling.The difference of SST biases in the North Atlantic and Pacific was partly due to the errors of meridional heat transport.For SSS,biases exceeding 1.5 psu were located in the Arctic Ocean and around the Gulf Stream.In the tropics,freshwater biases dominated and were mainly caused by the excess of precipitation.Regarding the vertical dimension,the maximal biases of temperature and salinity were located north of 65°N at depths of greater than 600 m,and their values exceeded 4°C and 2 psu,respectively.     

一个大洋环流模式和相应的海气耦合模式的评估 I.热带太平洋年平均状态

评估了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体动力学数值模拟国家重点实验室海洋环流模式L30T63和海气耦合模式FGCM 0模拟的热带太平洋年平均状态 ,资料取自L30T63由观测的大气强迫驱动的Control试验、由NCARCCM3大气强迫驱动的Spinup试验、以及相应的海气耦合模式FGCM 0。主要的结论是 :( 1 )在“准确”的海表强迫下 ,Control模拟的海面温度和温跃层与观测结果相当接近 ,模式的固有误差是赤道冷舌过分西伸和东南太平洋温跃层偏浅。 ( 2 )Spinup能模拟出合理的热带太平洋上层海洋环流 ,但存在两个问题 ,即 :暖池区海面温度显著偏高、沿赤道的梯度过大 ;赤道温跃层偏浅、东西向坡度偏小 ,它们分别与CCM3提供的海表短波辐射通量和风应力的系统误差有关。这两个问题很可能是海气耦合模式FGCM 0运行初期误差迅速发展的重要原因。 ( 3)FGCM 0模拟的赤道暖池区上层 1 0 0m的平均温度比观测低 3℃。分析表明FGCM 0夸大了暖池区海洋动力过程的降温作用 ,使得模拟的“暖池”在一定程度上具有冷舌的属性。FGCM 0模拟的热带南太平洋温跃层比观测结果偏浅数十米到 1 0 0m ,以致赤道两侧的上层海洋温度分布趋于对称 ,成为“doubleITCZ”现象在上层海洋中的表现。风应力旋度的系统误差和垂直混合随深度衰减过快     

大跨度预应力混凝土连续刚构桥的动力特性分析

介绍了福建泉州后渚大桥——大跨度预应力混凝土连续刚构桥的现场环境振动实验．并利用频域中的单模态识别法(SDOFI)、峰值法(PP)和时域中的随机子空间识别法(SSI)分别进行桥梁动力特性识别。利用ANSYS建立了全桥三维有限元模型并进行了理论模态分析,基于参数分析和环境振动测试结果对有限元模型进行了标定,建立了该桥的基准有限元模型,该模型可服务于桥梁长期健康监测与状态评估。     

The North Atlantic oscillation simulated by versions 2 and 4 of IAP/ LASG GOALS Model

The capabilities of two versions of the Global-Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-System model (i.e. GOALS-2 and GOALS-4) developed at State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), are validated in terms of the simulations of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is currently the subject of considerable scientific interest. The results show that both GOALS-2 and GOALS-4 exhibit a realistic NAO signal associated with relatively reasonable spatial pat-terns of sea level pressure, surface air temperature, and precipitation. Generally speaking, the associated pat-terns of precipitation in GOALSs match better with the observation in comparison with the case of surface temperature. For the imprint of NAO on the ocean, or perhaps a coupling between the two fluids, the asso-ciated tripole patterns of the North Atlantic SST anomaly are presented distinctly in GOALS-2, for GOALS-4 however, this is not the case. Spatially, the models’ main deficiencies appear to be that the simu-lated Icelandic lows shift northward apparently, which in turn result in the blemish of GOALSs in repro-ducing the accompanied surface wind anomalies. For the interannual and even longer time scale variations of DJF sea level pressure (SLP) over the North Atlantic region. GOALSs reproduce the center with the strongest variability rationally, but the intensities are far weaker than the observation.     

Ablation Characteristic of Ilmenite using UV Nanosecond and Femtosecond Lasers: Implications for Non‐Matrix‐Matched Quantification

Ilmenite (FeTiO₃) is a common accessory mineral and has been used as a powerful petrogenetic indicator in many geological settings. Elemental fractionation and matrix effects in ilmenite (CRN63E‐K) and silicate glass (NIST SRM 610) were investigated using 193 nm ArF excimer nanosecond (ns) laser and 257 nm femtosecond (fs) laser ablation systems coupled to an inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometer. The concentration‐normalised ⁵⁷Fe and ⁴⁹Ti responses in ilmenite were higher than those in NIST SRM 610 by a factor of 1.8 using fs‐LA. Compared with the 193 nm excimer laser, smaller elemental fractionation was observed using the 257 nm fs laser. When using 193 nm excimer laser ablation, the selected range of the laser energy density had a significant effect on the elemental fractionation in ilmenite. Scanning electron microscopy images of ablation craters and the morphologies of the deposited aerosol materials showed more melting effects and an enlarged particle deposition area around the ablation site of the ns‐LA‐generated crater when compared with those using fs‐LA. The ejected material around the ns crater predominantly consisted of large droplets of resolidified molten material; however, the ejected material around the fs crater consisted of agglomerates of fine particles with ‘rough' shapes. These observations are a result of the different ablation mechanisms for ns‐ and fs‐LAs. Non‐matrix‐matched calibration was applied for the analysis of ilmenite samples using NIST SRM 610 as a reference material for both 193 nm excimer LA‐ICP‐MS and fs‐LA‐ICP‐MS. Similar analytical results for most elements in ilmenite samples were obtained using both 193 nm excimer LA‐ICP‐MS at a high laser energy density of 12.7 J cm^?2 and fs‐LA‐ICP‐MS.     

一个大羊环流模式中赤道西太平洋暖池海面温度对西风爆发的响应

用逐日的欧洲中期数值预报中心再分析(ERA)风应力,和由Haney公式结合ERA海表资料与预报海温计算出的热通量强迫一个全球大洋环流模式.并用逐日的模拟结果与TOGA-COARE(Tropical Ocean--Global Atmosphere--Coupled Ocean-AtmosphereResponse Experiment)浮标观测资料对比,分析模拟结果中暖池海区上层海洋热量平衡对西风爆发(WWB)的响应.在第一次WWB过程中,模拟与观测的主要差异在WWB期间,而造成差异的原因主要是模式中由下沉运动引起的增温和由强的纬向温度梯度引起的暖平流.初步认为下沉增温可能是差分格式本身和模式分辨率不足造成的.从热量平衡的结果看,第二次WWB事件的模拟比第一次更成功,两次差异可能与两次WWB事件的季节背景不同有关.     

“10.7”安庆特大暴雨及中尺度低涡结构的数值模拟与分析

采用常规气象观测、地面加密降水资料、FY-2E卫星逐时TBB资料以及WRFV3.3高分辨率模式输出资料,对2010年7月12-13日安庆罕见特大暴雨过程的中尺度对流系统的发生发展、结构特征及形成原因进行了综合分析.WRFV3.3中尺度非静力模式很好地模拟了此次切变线暴雨的雨带走向、几个暴雨中心的位置和强度,以及中尺度对...     

FGOALS_gg1.1极地气候模拟

对中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_g1.1的极地气候模拟现状进行了较为全面的评估.结果表明,FGOALS_g1.1对南北极海冰的主要分布特征、季节变化和年代际变化趋势具有一定的模拟能力.但也注意到,与观测相比,模式存在以下几方面的问题:(1)模拟的海冰总面积北极偏多,而南极偏少.北极,北大西洋海冰全年明显偏多;夏季,西伯利亚沿海海冰偏多,而波弗特海海冰偏少.南极,威德尔海和罗斯海冬季海冰偏少.南北极海冰边缘都存在异常的较大范围密集度很小的碎冰区,夏季尤为显著.(2)海冰流速在南北极海冰边缘和南极大陆沿岸附近较大.北极,模式没能模拟出波弗特涡流,并且由于模式网格中北极点的处理问题,造成其附近错误的海冰流场及厚度分布.这些海冰偏差与模式模拟的大气和海洋状况有着密切的联系.进一步分析表明,FGOALS_g1.1模拟的冰岛低压和南极绕极西风带明显偏弱,其通过大气环流和海表面风应力影响向极地的热量输送,在很大程度上导致上述的海冰偏差.此外,耦合模式中大气-海冰-海洋的相互作用可以放大子模式中的偏差.