Quantifying the effects of climate trends in the past 43 years (1961–2003) on crop growth and water demand in the North China Plain

This paper explores changes in climatic variables, including solar radiation, rainfall, fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) and temperature, during wheat season (October to May) and maize season (June to September) from 1961 to 2003 at four sites in the North China Plain (NCP), and then evaluates the effects of these changes on crop growth processes, productivity and water demand by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator. A significant decline in radiation and rainfall was detected during the 43 years, while both temperature and FDR exhibit an increasing trend in both wheat and maize seasons. The average trend of each climatic variable for each crop season from the four sites is that radiation decreased by 13.2 and 6.2 MJ m^?2 a^?1, precipitation decreased by 0.1 and 1.8 mm a^?1, minimum temperature increased by 0.05 and 0.02°C a^?1, maximum temperature increased by 0.03 and 0.01°C a^?1, FDR increased by 0.21 and 0.38% a^?1 during wheat and maize season, respectively. Simulated crop water demand and potential yield was significantly decreased because of the declining trend in solar radiation. On average, crop water demand was decreased by 2.3 mm a^?1 for wheat and 1.8 mm a^?1 for maize if changes in crop variety were not considered. Simulated potential crop yields under fully irrigated condition declined about 45.3 kg ha^?1 a^?1 for wheat and 51.4 kg ha^?1 a^?1 for maize at the northern sites, Beijing and Tianjin. They had no significant changes in the southern sites, Jinan and Zhengzhou. Irrigation, fertilization development and crop variety improvement are main factors to contribute to the increase in actual crop yield for the wheat–maize double cropping system, contrasted to the decline in the potential crop yield. Further research on how the improvement in crop varieties and management practices can counteract the impact of climatic change may provide insight into the future sustainability of wheat–maize double crop rotations in the NCP.     

县级气象台站做好文化建设的思考

作为基层气象部门,文化建设对于一个单位强化内部管理、谋划科学发展,重塑价值体系具有重要意义。为此对基层气象台站文化建设情况开展了问卷调查,分析了基层台站气象文化建设的现状。在此基础上,探讨了气象文化的重要作用、气象文化建设的阻碍因素和气象文化建设的措施。     

Coupled Model Simulations of Climate Changes in the 20th Century and Beyond

Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report （AR4） are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model （FGOALS） developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences （IAP/CAS）, including the ＂Climate of the 20th century experiment＂, ＂CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment＂ and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios AIB and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show： （1） from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temper- ature increases about 0.5℃ and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model＇s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; （2） the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6℃ in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5℃ and 2.4℃ in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.     

FGOALS_gg1.1极地气候模拟

对中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_g1.1的极地气候模拟现状进行了较为全面的评估.结果表明,FGOALS_g1.1对南北极海冰的主要分布特征、季节变化和年代际变化趋势具有一定的模拟能力.但也注意到,与观测相比,模式存在以下几方面的问题:(1)模拟的海冰总面积北极偏多,而南极偏少.北极,北大西洋海冰全年明显偏多;夏季,西伯利亚沿海海冰偏多,而波弗特海海冰偏少.南极,威德尔海和罗斯海冬季海冰偏少.南北极海冰边缘都存在异常的较大范围密集度很小的碎冰区,夏季尤为显著.(2)海冰流速在南北极海冰边缘和南极大陆沿岸附近较大.北极,模式没能模拟出波弗特涡流,并且由于模式网格中北极点的处理问题,造成其附近错误的海冰流场及厚度分布.这些海冰偏差与模式模拟的大气和海洋状况有着密切的联系.进一步分析表明,FGOALS_g1.1模拟的冰岛低压和南极绕极西风带明显偏弱,其通过大气环流和海表面风应力影响向极地的热量输送,在很大程度上导致上述的海冰偏差.此外,耦合模式中大气-海冰-海洋的相互作用可以放大子模式中的偏差.     

云南漾濞6.4级地震灾情快速评估

震后开展灾情快速评估工作可为政府部门确定重点救援区域、部署救援队伍、调配救援物资等应急处置提供重要的信息决策支撑。基于云南新研制的地震灾害快速评估系统,完成了2021年5月21日云南大理漾濞县6.4级地震灾情快速评估及科技保障任务。实际应用结果表明:经过升级优化的地震快速评估软件,在系统稳定性、运算效率、应急产品丰富度、信息推送服务等技术指标有了显著提升,灾情评估结果与实际结果基本一致,满足互联网时代应急处置的新要求。     

河南省淅川县毛堂金矿区花岗斑岩锆石U-Pb年龄、Hf同位素特征及其地质意义

毛堂金矿是位于河南省"毛堂—蒲塘铜金矿带"上的一个小型金矿,矿体主要产于老田岩体的Ⅲ号岩体中,成矿作用与隐爆角砾岩和花岗斑岩关系密切。通过对与成矿有关的隐爆角砾岩和花岗斑岩进行LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb同位素测年,获得其成岩年龄分别为143.0 Ma±1.2 Ma和141.4Ma±1.5Ma,代表矿床的形成时代;对花岗斑岩进行Hf同位素测试,其εHf(t)值分布范围为-3.4～4.2,平均为1.6,显示其源区为镁铁质新生地壳。毛堂金矿形成于早白垩世,受花岗斑岩、隐爆角砾岩及其构造-裂隙控制,矿床类型属于隐爆角砾岩型金矿。     

Sensitivity of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to the dynamical framework in an ocean general circulation model

The horizontal coordinate systems commonly used in most global ocean models are the spherical latitude–longitude grid and displaced poles, such as a tripolar grid. The effect of the horizontal coordinate system on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is evaluated by using an OGCM (ocean general circulation model). Two experiments are conducted with the model—one using a latitude–longitude grid (referred to as Lat_1) and the other using a tripolar grid (referred to as Tri). The results show that Tri simulates a stronger North Atlantic deep water (NADW) than Lat_1, as more saline water masses enter the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) seas in Tri. The stronger NADW can be attributed to two factors. One is the removal of the zonal filter in Tri, which leads to an increasing of the zonal gradient of temperature and salinity, thus strengthening the north geostrophic flow. In turn, it decreases the positive subsurface temperature and salinity biases in the subtropical regions. The other may be associated with topography at the North Pole, because realistic topography is applied in the tripolar grid while the latitude–longitude grid employs an artificial island around the North Pole. In order to evaluate the effect of the filter on AMOC, three enhanced filter experiments are carried out. Compared to Lat_1, an enhanced filter can also augment NADW formation, since more saline water is suppressed in the GIN seas, but accumulated in the Labrador Sea, especially in experiment Lat_2_S, which is the experiment with an enhanced filter on salinity.     

汉江上游黄土常量元素地球化学特征及区域对比

本文对汉江上游黄土的常量元素含量及相关地球化学参数CIA、Na/K、淋溶系数、退碱系数、残积系数等进行了系统分析。结果显示：① 汉江黄土的主要化学成分为SiO₂、Al₂O₃和Fe₂O₃,三者含量总和达767.3 g/kg;常量元素含量大小排序为SiO₂>Al₂O₃>Fe₂O₃>K₂O>MgO>Na₂O>CaO。风化成壤过程中Na、Ca、Mg、Si发生不同程度的迁移淋溶,而Fe、Al、K相对富集。② 其风化成壤强度呈现从马兰黄土L₁→过渡性黄土L_t→古土壤S₀逐渐升高、全新世黄土L₀又降低的规律,记录了该区域气候经历了末次冰期（55.0-15.0 ka BP）冷干、早全新世（15.0-8.5 ka BP）增温增湿、中全新世（8.5-3.1 ka BP）达到最暖湿,晚全新世（3.1-0.0 ka BP）降温变干的演变过程。③ 汉江黄土与洛川、巫山、下蜀黄土的元素组合特征高度一致,不同地区常量元素（CaO除外）含量十分接近且UCC标准化值变幅均小于0.25,这暗示了它们风化之初具有相似的风成沉积基础;但不同区域黄土的化学风化强度差异明显,大致呈现洛川黄土<汉江黄土<巫山黄土<下蜀黄土的趋势,与中国现代季风气候的空间变化规律相吻合,即不同地区黄土风化程度差异主要是东亚季风变化影响的结果。     

辽宁省潜在蒸散发量及其敏感性规律分析

采用Penman-Monteith法和敏感系数法对辽宁省1965~2014年潜在蒸散发量及影响潜在蒸散发的气象因子敏感性进行分析,探讨气候变化下影响辽宁省潜在蒸散发量变化的主导因子及潜在蒸散发对气候变化的定量响应。结果表明：① 近50 a辽宁省潜在蒸散发呈现显著减少趋势,在空间上由西向东递减;② 潜在蒸散发对气象因子的敏感性在年尺度上表现为,水汽压最为敏感,其次为太阳辐射、风速、平均气温;在季节尺度上,春季和秋季对平均气温最不敏感,夏季对风速最不敏感,冬季对太阳辐射最不敏感;③ 空间分布上,气象因素的敏感系数与气象因子空间变化规律相吻合,潜在蒸散发对气温的敏感性由北部向南部递增,对水汽压、太阳辐射的敏感性由东部向西部递减,而风速与之变化趋势相反。④ 风速的显著降低是辽宁省潜在蒸散发量下降的主要原因,太阳辐射的下降及水汽压的升高也促使了潜在蒸散发量的下降。     

河北省主要农作物生产时空格局变化特征及安全评价

阐述主要粮食作物的时空格局变化特征,对中国粮食安全决策意义重大。基于河北省县市近15 a (2001~2015年）的农业数据资料,采用分段线性趋势以及生产指标-产量波动系数来分析河北省主要粮食作物的时空变化特征,并对河北省粮食作物进行安全评价。结果表明：从产量与播种面积来看,近15 a河北省主要粮食作物变化趋势经历了由波动减少到稳步增长2个阶段,且变化趋势显著;从空间格局变化来看,大致呈由南向北逐渐递减的规律分布,其中不同农作物分布规律各有差异;从粮食安全方面来看,河北省70%以上年份粮食波动系数均超过中国粮食安全平均水平,粮食波动系数较高,粮食安全风险较大;但从人均粮食产量来看,安全程度相对比较乐观,粮食安全状况渐趋于平稳。研究可为河北省粮食生产时空布局的优化、结构调整与社会经济协调发展提供依据。