Simulation by CMIP5 models of the atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its climate impacts

This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as a mode of internal variability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the “Pre-industrial” experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models’ “Historical” simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their “Pre-industrial” simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO.     

Unified modelling of granular media with Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics

In this paper, we present a unified numerical framework for granular modelling. A constitutive model capable of describing both quasi-static and dynamic behaviours of granular material is developed. Two types of particle interactions controlling the mechanical responses, frictional contact and collision, are considered by a hypoplastic model and a Bagnold-type rheology relation, respectively. The model makes no use of concepts like yield stress or flow initiation criterion. A smooth transition between the solid-like and fluid-like behaviour is achieved. The Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics method is employed as the unified numerical tool for both solid and fluid regimes. The numerical model is validated by simulating element tests under both quasi-static and flowing conditions. We further proceed to study three boundary value problems, i.e. collapse of a granular pile on a flat plane, and granular flows on an inclined plane and in a rotating drum.     

Ambiguity validation with combined ratio test and ellipsoidal integer aperture estimator

To ensure reliable ambiguity resolution, ambiguity validation is an indispensable step. It has been a challenge for many years and is far from being resolved. Over the past years, various ambiguity validation methods have been proposed, such as F-ratio test, R-ratio test, difference test, projector test, ellipsoidal integer aperture (EIA) estimator and penalized integer aperture (PIA) estimator. In this paper, through analysis and testing, we find that, when the aperture region of EIA is not allowed to be overlapped, the efficiency of ambiguity resolution with EIA is low and it is not applicable to fast static positioning or real-time kinematic (RTK) applications. Then EIA with overlapped aperture regions is recommended and the resulted fail-rate becomes upper bound of the actual one. After that, it is suggested that combined use of overlapped EIA and R-ratio test can increase the reliability of ambiguity resolution. Finally, numerical tests are carried out based on practical buoy data and simulated Galileo data.     

干旱半干旱区农田土壤风蚀特征及参数化研究进展

干旱半干旱地区是中国的农业后备战略基地,然而近年来该地区农田土壤风蚀现象严重,沙/尘释放量显著增大,威胁农业的可持续发展和生态系统平衡。目前绝大部分的天气和气候模式仅考虑了沙漠地表起沙,忽视退化农田的土壤风蚀起沙,导致起沙通量模拟存在很大的不确定性。对20世纪50年代以来干旱半干旱区农田土壤风蚀起沙特征及参数化做了详细的分析总结,回顾并梳理了干旱半干旱区农田土壤风蚀观测和数值模拟的研究脉络以及存在的问题,为提高农田起沙的模拟精度提供了有效参考,对中国干旱半干旱区农田土壤风蚀防治、土地荒漠化治理以及理解未来土地利用改变对大气污染的影响具有重要意义。     

基于惩罚型变权的农地生态安全预警评价——以新疆生产建设兵团为例

将变权理论引入土地生态安全预警研究,结合熵值分析法得到的静态权和预警指标值的动态发展趋势,构建了农地生态安全预警的惩罚型变权模型并进行了实证研究。惩罚型变权评价模型更符合农地生态安全预警的动态性要求,评价结果更接近实际。1982—2012年间,新疆生产建设兵团农地的生态安全呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,但总体上位于轻警区间。通过预测,在未来的5年间,其安全状况会较现状年有一定程度退化,有向中警区间延伸的趋势。     

推帚式超光谱成像仪(PHI)关键技术

成像光谱仪把二维成像技术和光谱技术有机地结合在一起,是具有重大潜力的对地观测仪器。近年来,随焦平面探测器推帚成像技术的发展,先进国家研制成功了超光谱成像仪,成为成像光谱技术的又一生长点。本文结合工作经验,介绍以硅面阵电荷耦合器件（ＣＣＤ）为探测器的推帚式超光谱成像仪ＰＨＩ的关键技术及发展前景。     

Role of natural external forcing factors in modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall,the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and their relationship on inter-decadal timescale

We use reconstructed data and multi-centennial integrations performed with the Bergen Climate Model Version 2 to investigate the impact of natural external forcing factors on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the potential relationship between the ISM rainfall and the winter NAO on decadal to inter-decadal timescales. The model simulations include a 600-year control integration (CTL600) and a 600-year integration with time-varied natural external forcing factors from 1400 to 1999 (EXT600). Both reconstructed data and the simulation showed increased ISM rainfall 2–3 years after strong volcanic eruptions. Strong volcanic eruptions decrease the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST), which increases the strength of the southwesterly winds over the Arabian Sea. With negative externally-forced radiative anomaly, the lower stratospheric pole-to-equator winter temperature gradient is enhanced, leading to a positive winter NAO anomaly with a time lag of 1 year. There is no significant correlation between the winter NAO and ISM rainfall in CTL600. However, the ISM rainfall is significantly positively correlated with the winter NAO in EXT600, with the NAO leading by 2–4 years, which is consistent with the NAO–ISM rainfall relationship in the reconstructed data. We suggest that natural external forcing factors regulate the inter-decadal variability of both the winter NAO and the ISM rainfall and thus likely lead to an increased statistical but not causal relationship between them on the inter-decadal timescale over the past centuries.     

Remote sensing of water vapor content using ground-based GPS data

Spatial and temporal resolution of water vapor content is useful in improving the accuracy of short-term weather prediction. Dense and continuously tracking regional GPS arrays will play an important role in remote sensing atmospheric water vapor content. In this study, a piecewise linear solution method was proposed to estimate the precipitable water vapor (PWV) content from ground-based GPS observations in Hong Kong. To evaluate the solution accuracy of the water vapor content sensed by GPS, the upper air sounding data (radiosonde) that are collected locally was used to calculate the precipitable water vapor during the same period. One-month results of PWV from both ground-based GPS sensing technique and radiosonde method are in agreement within 1–2 mm. This encouraging result will motivate the GPS meteorology application based on the establishment of a dense GPS array in Hong Kong.     

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